October 16, 2024
WISCONSIN IS A MUST-WIN FOR BOTH TRUMP, HARRIS
Wisconsin is a scenic wonderland, filled with vacation homes, water resorts, Door County, camp grounds, Lake Geneva, astounding winter skiing and endless Octoberfests. It’s also the home of the Green Bay Packers and many Milwaukee-area breweries that used to brew undrinkable, water-diluted slop as Schlitz and Hamm’s before they were sold off to big conglomerates. It was a whole lot of barley, oats and grains mixed with a whole lot of water. To be schizoid means to have an enduring and collective division of thought, a cleavage of opinion. Wisconsin, which has just 10 electoral votes (EVs), is completely polarized, with the electorate completely schizoid. Trump won by 22,753 votes in 2016 and lost by 20,682 votes in 2020. Wisconsin has a Democratic governor, Tony Evers, who won initially in 2018 and was re-elected with 51 percent in 2022, But the state also has a lopsided legislature which is 21R-11D in the Senate and 64R-35D in the House. Whatever Evers wants he does not get, and he vetoes whatever far-right non-sense the Republican majorities pass. Wisconsin’s U.S. senators couldn’t be more different. In the current national political environment every state except ME, WI, OH, WV (which will change this year as a Republican wins Joe Manchin’s seat) and MT (where 18-year Democrat Jon Tester is on track to lose) has two senators who are of the same party as the 2020 presidential winner. That includes GA. If Hovde wins it will mean that Trump won WI, and Trump wins the presidency. As goes WI so goes MI (15 EVs) and PA (19 EVs). And a Hovde win will also mean the Trump tide was sufficient enough to boost Republican senate candidates to victory in MI, PA and maybe NV, but probably not in AZ and MD (more about that in next week’s column). And a Republican Senate of 55R-45D or 56R-44D will withstand any 2026 anti-Trump pushback and have a profound impact on the American judiciary. And, of course, there will be no impeachments. Watch Wisconsin. Full Article...
October 09, 2024
SCHOOL BOARD CONTESTS ARE A PRELUDE TO OUSTING "SOCIALIST" MAYOR JOHNSON
The Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) essentially runs the city, and that’s because Mayor Brandon Johnson, a former organizer and lobbyist, is its stooge. He doubled down on that premise again on Oct. 7 during a press conference reminiscent of the Richie Daley days, in which he harangued the Chicago media for asking basic questions as he unveiled six new Chicago School Board (CSB) members after all seven resigned last week. The new members’ sole purpose is to vote to ratify the pending CPS contract with the CTU, and likely vote to fire current CEO Pedro Martinez, and take out a high-interest loan to pay for pensions and salaries and a litany of other “wants.” The new members are Olga Bautista, Michilla Blaise, Mary Gardner, the Rev. Mitchell Ikenna Johnson, Deborah Pope and Frank Niles Thomas. There was supposed to be seven, but one was dropped at last minute. Think of it: It’s the flunky appointing a bunch of sub-flunkies. And that’s not going to change on Nov. 5 when Chicagoans elect 10 school board members from ten districts. The current board will sunset by state law as of Dec. 31. But the new 21-member CSB, also established by state law, will have at least 16 pro-CTU flunkies, maybe more. And that’s because Johnson will appoint 11 members who will serve until 2026, until a fully elected board in 2027. Chicago’s current population is 2,638,159, so each CSB district has about 275,000 people. That’s the equivalent of 5 wards (55,000 each) with about 160,000 total households and maybe 175,000 RVs. As set forth in the attached chart the CTU has fielded a pro-CTU flunky in every district but an upstart pro-School Choice group called Urban Center has candidates in nine. The best bet for an anti-CTU win is in the 1st District where pro school choice champion Michelle Pierre is running against ex-teacher Jennifer Custer. The key is getting the Trump voters to back her. The next best bet is in the 2nd District where 50th Ward (West Rogers Park) Democratic committeeperson Bruce Leon, is running against the CTU’s Ebony DeBerry, an ex-CPS teacher. Full Article...
October 02, 2024
REPUBLICANS IN SPRINGFIELD IGNORED, INCONSEQURNTIAL, IRRELEVANT
There is irrelevant. There is inconsequential. There is laughable. Republicans in the Illinois legislature are all of the above. They are not just the minority. With Democrats holding a 40D-19R majority in the Senate and a 78D-40R majority in the House, Republicans are just an annoyance to be ignored, not even worth the effort to squash. And the Nov. 5 results may push them closer to extermination. There are 14 competitive seats (see chart) out of 118 in the House, of which six are held by a Republican and eight by a Democrat. Inasmuch as Trump will lose IL by 400,000-plus votes, it is entirely possible Republicans will LOSE more House seats. Democrats could hold 80 or more seats in 2025. A Democrat occupies 30of 32 Chicago districts, the exception being the 20th, which contains nearly all of the Northwest Side 41st Ward plus suburban Rosemont, Schiller Park, Norridge, Harwood Heights and some of south Park Ridge. The incumbent, Rosemont mayor Brad Stephens (R), is unopposed. Democrats also occupy 17 of the 19 suburban Cook County seats, the exceptions being Martin McLaughlin (R) in the Barrington 52nd district and Nicole La Ha (R) in the Western Springs 82nd district. La Ha was appointed in 2023 after Jim Durkin, the House minority leader, resigned. Both could lose. Prediction: Republicans will pick up a net 2 of seats. And that means absolutely nothing. Full Article...
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