October 2, 2024
REPUBLICANS IN SPRINGFIELD IGNORED, INCONSEQURNTIAL, IRRELEVANT

There is irrelevant. There is inconsequential. There is laughable. Republicans in the Illinois legislature are all of the above. They are not just the minority. With Democrats holding a 40D-19R majority in the Senate and a 78D-40R majority in the House, Republicans are just an annoyance to be ignored, not even worth the effort to squash.

And the Nov. 5 results may push them closer to extermination. There are 14 competitive seats (see chart) out of 118 in the House, of which six are held by a Republican and eight by a Democrat. Inasmuch as Trump will lose IL by 400,000-plus votes, it is entirely possible Republicans will LOSE more House seats. Democrats could hold 80 or more seats in 2025.

A Democrat occupies 30of 32 Chicago districts, the exception being the 20th, which contains nearly all of the Northwest Side 41st Ward plus suburban Rosemont, Schiller Park, Norridge, Harwood Heights and some of south Park Ridge. The incumbent, Rosemont mayor Brad Stephens (R), is unopposed. Democrats also occupy 17 of the 19 suburban Cook County seats, the exceptions being  Martin McLaughlin (R) in the Barrington 52nd district and Nicole La Ha (R) in the Western Springs 82nd district. La Ha was appointed in 2023 after Jim Durkin, the House minority leader, resigned. Both could lose.

Up until the 2001 Mike Madigan-designed remap, Republicans held seats in Park Ridge/Des Plaines, Glenview, Palatine, Arlington Heights/Elk Grove, Schaumburg, Hoffman Estates and Inverness in the northwest and Palos Hills and Orland Park in the southwest. All are gone. In the collar counties of Lake, McHenry, DuPage, Kane, DeKalb and Will, Republicans held seats in Wheaton, Downers Grove, Naperville, Addison/Bensenville, Glen Ellyn, West Chicago, Grayslake, Crystal Lake, McHenry, Batavia and Plainfield/Lockport. All are gone.

The only growth area for Republicans is southern IL, extending from Springfield to Cairo, Metro East, which is the area in and surrounding East St. Louis and St. Clair County, just across the Mississippi River from St. Louis, used to be a Democratic stronghold. Now it is quickly trending Republican.

Of the Illinois’ 118 House districts only 52 are being contested; in 43 districts the Democrat is unopposed and the Republican in 23 district. All but one of those Republican seats (meaning Stephens) are Downstate.

“It’s all about redistricting, money and deceptive advertising,” said Matt Besler, the chief Republican field operative. Madigan, who was still speaker in 2021, drew the map to dilute the Republican vote. Instead of “packing” party vote into select districts, creating 60-79 percent safe districts, Madigan’s mapmakers spread out the Republicans and created a multiplicity of 55 percent Democratic districts.   

Then there’s the money. Madigan would regularly do a “sweep” of union PACs and direct their contributions into the accounts of various controlled state reps who would then forward the campaign money to other state reps. Madigan would also funnel money through the state party (DPI), which he chaired, and the Majority Fund. Madigan’s in-house strategists would design the respective mailers, DPI would bulk-rate pay for them, and Democratic operatives, who were staffers on various House committees in the off-season, would go into the field to manage targeted campaigns.

And the attack pieces and media ads were both deceptive and effective. An example is Tom Morrison (R), a conservative from the Palatine/Hoffman Estates 54th District. He was a relentless door-to-door campaigner, out in the precincts almost every day. But he also voted against Madigan’s  state budgets  (as did all Republicans). He did so for fiscal reasons. Because Madigan would not allow any floor amendments, it was a up-or-down vote.

Morrison barely beat Maggie Trevor (now a county commissioner) in 2018 and 2020. Madigan spent over $500,000 twice to beat him, paid for about 20 mailers, and deceptively used his budget vote. The budget had funding, for example, for rape testing kits, for the state police, for local projects. The deluge of anti-Morrison mailers then painted Morrison as VOTING AGAINST rape kits, law enforcement funding, etc. Years of constituent contact and goodwill were wiped out in an instant. Morrison called it quits in 2022 and Democrat Mary Beth Canty won the seat. Republicans are conceding the seat to her in 2024.

Current Speaker Chris Welch is replicating Madigan’s modus operandi. His campaign account, DPI and Majority Fund will raise and spend over $20 million to defeat vulnerable Republicans and prop-up vulnerable Democrats (see chart). Republicans will raise about $7 million. Power attracts money and money keeps those who have it in power. And, as needed, ground manpower is supplied by the unions or paid workers.  

Another Democratic stratagem is to pile vulnerable members on popular bills as co-sponsors. The process is as follows: A state rep files a bill and the Speaker assigns it to a committee, the chairman of which is appointed by him. The membership is 2/3rds Democrats. Invariably the Speaker’s staff prepares the important bills and lets somebody sponsor it. The speaker then decides if and when the bill will be passed out of committee for a floor vote. If called for a first reading it passes – no amendments allowed. The so-called “co-sponsors” then use that fact in their positive mailings. Republican bills get assigned and never heard. 

The IL House  is a Puppet Show.  Speaker Welch (as was Madigan) is the Puppeteer, the string-puller. He provides the money, if needed, to get his reps re-elected; they then provide their votes as instructed. And Governor JB Pritzker, who dumps $12 million of his billions into the DPI every 15 months, tells Welch what to do.

Here is the 2024 outlook: The most obvious flip is the Ottawa 76TH DISTRICT where incumbent Lance Yednock (D) is retiring. The Democrat, Amy Murri Briel is a Woke/Leftist who donated to Brandon Johnson’s mayoral campaign. Republican Liz Bishop will win.  Another likely flip is the Elmhurst 45TH DISTRICT seat of first-term Democrat Jenn Ladisch Douglass, who won by 364 votes in 2022, beating incumbent Deanne Mazzochi (R). She faces former (2006-14) state rep Dennis Reboletti (R). If Trump doesn’t tank and gets 51-52 percent in the district then Reboletti wins.

Three other possible flips are in the Inverness 51ST DISTRICT where Nabeela Syed (D) upset incumbent Chris Bos (R) by 2,928 votes in 2022. His opponent is Tosi Ufodike (R), an activist woman and energetic door knocker. If Trump wins in this affluent district so will Ufodike. In the 97TH DISTRICT (Lockport/Plainfield) Harry Benton won by 1,163 votes in 2022. His opponent is Gabby Shanahan (R). In the 49TH DISTRICT (Batavia) incumbent Maura Hirschauer (D) won by 2,350 votes in 2022. Her opponent is Hannah Billingsley (R). An upset looms in the Edwardsville 112TH DISTRICT. It is almost axiomatic that when a woman beats a man the losing party runs a woman next cycle. It is also certain Democrats will spend at least 500K in each district to protect their incumbents.

The top Democratic target is Dan Ugaste (R) in Geneva’s 65TH DISTRICT. Ugaste won by 3,706 votes in 2022 and needs a Trump surge. His opponent is Linda Robertson. He is a slight favorite.  McLaughlin faces a woman, Maria Peterson (D), in his Barrington district, and La Ha faces a woman, Suzanne Akhras, in her Western Springs district. Dems will spend a bundle to beat them, but both should win.

Prediction: Republicans will pick up a net 2 of seats. And that means absolutely nothing.

NOTHING changes in the IL House.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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