October 30, 2024
TRUMP WILL DEFEAT HARRIS IN A 312-226 ELECTORAL VOTE BLOWOUT
November 6 will be a “Day of Trauma” in certain parts of America. It will be the beginning of agony and ecstasy all at the same time. Set up the triage units. Break out the tranquilizers and sedatives. Expect all the 911 EMTs to be on overtime readiness.
Get ready for an epidemic of Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) on the Radical Left.
And that’s all because Donald Trump will have won on Nov. 5. I predict that he will have triumphed by an electoral vote (EV) of 312-226. Trump will have won ALL seven battleground states – PA, MI, WI, NC, GA, NV, AZ. He is now ahead in each state, albeit by miniscule margins, but he lost all but NC in 2020.
Assemble a whole bunch of earplugs. Get ready for an ear-splitting crescendo of whining, moaning, groaning, ranting, raving, caterwauling, regurgitating, trembling, whimpering, pleading, plotting (Impeach Now) and grieving. All is lost. Apocalypse Now. Armageddon. End of Days.
It will be the SIX stages of grief (not 5): Hysteria, Anger, Denial, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. Of course, I may be wrong, but the same thing will apply to Trump supporters if Harris does win.
TDS will consume the media, who will shriek in disbelief about those “deranged” Americans who had the temerity to not vote for Kamala Harris. What’s wrong with them? Hillary Clinton, America’s favorite sourpuss will be trotted out to demand that every Trump voter be “re-programmed” ASAP, as democracy is in dire peril.
Trump held an Oct. 27 rally in Madison Square Garden (the same rally where that comedian said Puerto Rico was an island of garbage). Did you know, Hillary pointed out, that the American-German Bund, a pro-Hitler Nazi front, held a rally there in 1939? Therefore, we must conclude that history is repeating itself. Trump voters are not just a “basket of deplorables,” as Hillary said in 2016. They are now a bunch of “sturmabteilung,” or “Brownshirts.” Never mind that the 1992 DNC was held at MSG and Bill was nominated.
Harris will surely get more popular votes than Trump on Nov. 5 as her base is concentrated on the west (CA, OR, WA, HI) coast and east (NY, DE, MD, New England) coast, where she will win much better than 55/45. In 2016 Clinton-Kaine won the nationwide popular vote 65,853,514-62,984,626, a margin of 2,868,888 in a turnout of 129 million. It was 48.2-46.1 percent, or 2.1 points. But Trump-Pence won the EV 304-227. In 2020 Biden-Harris won the popular vote 81,283,501-73,224,975, a margin of 8,058,526 in a turnout of 154 million, up by a noteworthy 25 million over 2016. It was 51.3-46.6 percent, or 4.7 points. The EV was 306-232 Biden.
Turnout will hit 160 million this year. According to RealClear Politics’ (RCP) average of all recent polls, Trump is leading Harris by 0.1 points nationally, indicating a very slight but definite pro-Trump trend since August. At this point (end of October) in 2020 Biden was up by 7.5 and in 2016 Clinton up by 4.6. The pollsters’ sample, obviously, undercounted Trump by about 2.8 points in 2020 and by about 2.5 points in 2016. If there is a margin-of-error of +/- 3 points then Trump is actually winning -- and will win.
The latest polls have the race tied. Trump is up by one point in WI, PA and MI. An Oct. 26 ABC poll had Biden’s approve/disapprove at 36/57 and a Rasmussen had it at 35/60. A right track/wrong track poll was a negative 26. That’s heavy baggage for Harris who, when asked on The View what, if anything, she would have done different than Biden, said she couldn’t think of a single thing. When asked at a CNN Town Hall about how Harris-Walz would be different from Biden-Harris , the VP mumbled a bunch of platitudes about having different experiences, different approaches and being a newer generation.
The RCP average in battleground states has Trump up 0.3 in WI, whereas late Oct. polls in 2020 had him down 7.5 and in 2016 down 4.6. In PA RCP has Trump up 0.5, whereas he was down. 3.8 and 5.0 in ‘20 and ‘16. In MI Trump is up 0.1 compared to down 8.6 and 7.0. These are major surges.
Out west Trump is up 1.5 in AZ compared to being down 2.2 and up 1.5 previously; and in NV Trump is up 0.7 compared to down 4.6 and 1.6. Down south Trump is up 2.3 in GA, compared to a tie and up 2.5. Trump lost GA by in infamous 11,000 votes in 2020 (he’s being prosecuted by Fani Willis for the “find me 11,000 votes’ phone call). This year a surge in White turnout will give him a 75,000-plus win.
In NC, which Trump won twice, RCP has him up 0.6 compared to up 0.7 and 3.0. He won NC by about 85,000 in 2020. All that matters on Nov. 5 is the EV count. If Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds he will win 312-226.
Just imagine the instantaneous hue and cry of outrage from the Leftist media. It’s a perversion of democracy, they will yell. Majority should rule. Abolish the Electoral College, they will demand on CNN and MSNBC. The process of de-legitimizing the incoming Trump Administration will start on Nov. 6.
This column is about facts and not propaganda.
I am predicting a Trump win because of (1) Trump peaking at exactly the right time. Harris has had 3 months to prove her worthiness and has failed. She is disingenuous, dodging answers to fundamental questions: Are we better off than 4 years ago? When did you know about Biden’s cognitive decline? What are you going to fix on ‘Day One?’ Turn the page? No, burn the book. Moving Forward? From where to where?
(2) Trump has disproven his perceived unworthiness for the job, although I’m sure many will disagree with me. There is a definite yearning to revert to the Trump years. He has found his comfort zone, and more Americans than 2020 are OK with that.
And (3) Trump has a cult-like following convinced that only he can fix our mess.
Prediction: Kamala’s most enduring quote from 2024’s campaign is “What can be, unburdened by what has been.” Fortunately on Nov. 6 we will have been unburdened by the phoniness of Kamala Harris, and the Radical Left will be burdened by the past, which is Trump.
CHICAGO SCHOOL BOARD (CSB): When in doubt, just trash Trump. The most competitive contest (among 10) is in the Northwest Side 1st District where pro-CTU candidate Jennifer Custer is running against pro-school choice Michelle Pierre.
Rather than highlight Custer’s qualifications, the CTU in mailers is smearing Pierre as a puppet of Trump Republicans, who want to enact the Project 2025 agenda, which “rips money out of public schools and into for-profit charter schools.”
Well, shame on them. Chicagoans pay almost 55 percent of their property taxes for public education and that money is supposed to be lining teachers’ and bureaucrats’ pockets. Students are an afterthought. Their role is to fill up enough space so the school doesn’t close down. The CPS budget is $9.9 billion, with a more than $500 million deficit. Enrollment is now 323,251. There are 634 public schools in Chicago and 111 charter schools, which must be authorized to operate by the CSB and funded as deemed appropriate by CPS.
The INCS Action PAC – meaning the Illinois Network of Charter Schools – has paid for Pierre mailers highlighting her 20 years of experience.
The nasty mailers against Pierre, a Black woman, feature a puppet master dangling a puppet dressed in a man’s suit with an airbrushed whitish face.
That mailer proclaims that Trump and Republicans and “out-of-state billionaires” are “pulling the strings” of Pierre, who was endorsed by the Chicago Tribune.
Some anti-Pierre mailers were paid for by the CTU and some by the 38th Ward Democrats (run by Senator Rob Martwick, who is the committeeperson).
Martwick sponsored the bill for an elected Chicago School Board, supplanting the current 7-member Board appointed by the mayor. The new 21-Member CSB will elect 10 members on Nov. 5 and Mayor Brandon Johnson, an ex-CTU operative and CPS teacher, will appoint the other 10 plus a president. All 20, plus the president, will be on the 2026 ballot. There will be a pro-CTU majority no matter how you slice it on the Chicago School Board. There will be no defunding of the CPS. Those defunded will be Chicago taxpayers. Pierre will lose by a narrow margin.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
This column was published in Nadig Newspapers. If you, a friend or a colleague wish to be added to Russ's BUDDY LIST, and be emailed his column every Wednesday morning, email webmaster Joe at Joe@Nadignewspapers.com