October 23, 2024
TRUMP REPUBLICANS "COMING HOME" IN U.S. SENATE RACES -- FLIP LIKELY

The battle for the control of the U.S. Senate has ceased to be an anomaly, progressed to anathema, and will not conclude in changed behavior.

In other words, Republican Trump enthusiasts in OH, PA, MI, WI, NV and AZ have realized that voting for Trump AND for a Democrat for senator would be absurd, that a Trump presidency would be thwarted by a Democratic Congress and that enacting a Trump agenda or reversing Biden-Harris policies means voting straight Republican.

Of course liberal Democrats and Far Leftists consider Trump’s first term an oddity that should never be repeated. Polling indicating Trump and senatorial Republicans are surging and peaking baffles them.

For those on the Left a Trump win and U.S. Senate takeover is JUST NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN. Load up on your meds. It is happening and it will happen.

Nov. 5 is a rare EITHER/OR election, meaning a choice between maintaining Biden-Harris policies for 4 more years or returning to Trump’s governance. The choice is clear and stark. You have to be all-in for “Your Side.” Note that Harris’s “Politics of Joy” has evaporated. And hate and fear have arrived. Trump is being derided as “unfit” and “exhausted,” and mocked for going to McDonald’s. Say what you want about him, but his campaign knows exactly what will “trigger” the Left and they double-down.

Note also that the once-comfortable leads of Democratic senators Jon Tester (MT), Sherrod Brown (OH), Tammy Baldwin (WI), Jacky Rosen (NV) and Bob Casey (PA) have also vanished, as have Dem leads for open seats AZ and MI. Leads of 4-6 points are down to 1-3 and Tester is down by 8. The only safe open seat (D) is in MD. 

The two Republicans deemed most vulnerable are senators Ted Cruz (TX) and Rick Scott (FL).  Neither is considered especially popular but each has a solid lock on their conservative base. Trump will win each state by 500,000 or more; so neither senator can or will lose.

The point is this: Do not expect Harris/Walz voters to opt for a Republican for Congress; and now it’s become clear to Trump voters that to vote for any Democrat is downright stupid. The 2024 senatorial vote will mirror the president’s in every state.

MONTANA: Tester, first elected in 2006, has crafted an image as a folksy farmer while supporting every Biden-Harris policy. Now he faces the consequences. He will spend $30 million in a state which had a 2020 turnout of 588,000; he has not endorsed Harris; and he has run a relentlessly negative campaign against Tim Sheehy (R), an ex-Navy Seal and wealthy owner of a company which makes aerial forest-fire fighting equipment. Sheehy is self-funding about $15 million.

Tester is ripping Sheehy as a “carpetbagger” and “outsider” even though he was born in ND and resettled in MT after military service. Tester calls him “Shady Sheehy,” questioning his business practices. But Tester is a goner. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) poll average is Trump +17.4, with a 10/8 NYT/Siena poll at 57/40 and a 9/20 Remington poll at 56/39. Trump won in 2020 by – 98,816.  Sheehy’s RCP is +7 and the NYT/Siena poll had him up 52/44 and Remington up 52/44. Tester’s money has not moved the numbers. Trump/Sheehy will sweep.

OHIO: The narrative on the senate race was that Cleveland-area auto group dealer Bernie Moreno (R) was too pro-Trump to beat longtime “populist” senator Brown (D). Except Brown voted with Biden-Harris 98 percent of the time and OH is fervently pro-Trump, who won by 475,669 in 2020. Brown won by 301,961 in 2018, a Democratic sweep year, even though Republicans won the OH governorship by a wide margin.

The 2024 expectation was that Brown could survive a modest Trump win. But this once-marginal Rust Belt state has gone toxic on Democrats. Recent polling has Harris down by 7 points in the RCP average, down 51/45 in Rasmussen (10/14), down 51/45 in Washington Post (10/7) and down 50/44 in NYT/Siena (9/26). Moreno has shown slow growth to the point where the RCP average shows Brown ahead by 0.8 points (the RCP average is based on 5 recent polls).

The Trump/Moreno vote has essentially merged, with RCP putting it a 47.3/46.7 for Brown, Rasmussen (10/14) had it 45/44 for Moreno, Washington Post at 48/47 (10/7) for Brown and Marist 50/48 (10/7) for Brown.

Trump is going to win OH by over 500,000 and Brown will lose in the Republican wave.

WISCONSIN:   America’s Dairyland is a politically schizophrenic state, boasting one conservative Republican senator (Ron Johnson) and one Far Left Democratic female senator (Tammy Baldwin). That is poised to change. The state is divided virtually equally, with a hardcore liberal vote in Dane County (Madison), and the minority vote in Milwaukee offsetting exactly the suburban/rural vote. Trump won in 2016 by 22,748 and lost in 2020 by 20,682.

The RCP average has Trump up 0.2 points. An Atlas Intel poll (10/17) has Trump up 49/48, the first time he has taken a lead; two polls on 10/8 by Wall Street Journal and Emerson had it tied 49/49 and 48/48. Rasmussen (10/14) had Harris up 49/47. This ideological tension has impacted Baldwin, who  won in 2012 and 2018 by playing the gender/identity card.

That technique has become tiresome just as she has become tiresome.

Wealthy investment banker Eric Hovde (R) is self-funding and emerged as a credible candidate. RCP has Baldwin up by 2.6 points; October polls by Atlas Intel, Rasmussen, Insider Advantage and Trafalgar had Baldwin up 49/46, 46/45, 48/47 and 48/46.

If Trump-Harris is decided by fewer than 20,000 votes then Hovde is on his own. But if Trump surges late and wins by 30,000-plus, then he will pull in Hovde. A Hovde win would be the upset of 2024.

PENNSYLVANIA: Casey is a legacy name in PA, much like Daley in IL and Taft in OH. But legacies must end sometime. Dave McCormick (R), a wealthy ex-defense contractor, is making it close. Trump has spent a lot of time in PA, where he was nearly assassinated. He won by 43,792 in 2016 and lost by 80,555 in 2020,

RCP has Trump up by 0.8 and Casey by +1.9. The latest Trafalgar poll (10/17) has it 46/43 Trump and 47/47 for senator. Expect Trump to win. It will be tight in the Senate race.

MICHIGAN: Former congressman Mike Rogers (R) was seen as a throwaway candidate this year, as a Republican has not won for senator in MI since 1994. Ggovernor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has built a statewide political machine, and Elissa Slotnik (D), the senate nominee, is a congresswoman seeking to replace a woman senator. What could go wrong? Actually, a lot. White male UAW workers are defecting. RCP has Trump +1.2 and Slotkin +2.2. The momentum favors Trump/Rogers.

ARIZONA: Kari Lake was a Trump election denier in 2020, which contributed to her loss by 17,077 for governor in 2022. AZ is a border state and the Tucson area is swamped with migrants – but that doesn’t seem to faze Harris, the governor (D) or congressman Ruben Gallego (D), the open seat senate nominee. They all parrot that the “border is secure.” Do Arizonans care? It appears not.

Trump lost AZ by 10,457 in 2020. RCP puts Trump up by 1.6 and the latest poll (Atlas Intel) on 10/17 has it tied 49/49. The senate race is a different story. RCP has Gallego +6.3 and is up 50/46, 54/45, 48/44 and 48/41 in October polls. Trump will win but Lake will lose.

Prediction: The Senate will be 55R-45D.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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