December 18, 2024
REPUBLICANS NEARING PERMANENT MAJORITY IN U.S. SENATE
This year was not a year of political realignment. Instead it was a year of political reaffirmation in which ideological and cultural polarization became permanent. What also has arguably become permanent is Republican control of the U.S. Senate for the foreseeable future, likely into the 2030s. Trump’s decisive 312-226 electoral vote (EV) 2024 win does not mean that either half is as yet permanently winning or losing. 2020 was essentially an anti-Trump vote and 2024 an anti-Biden and anti-Woke/Left vote. 2028 will be a referendum on Trump-Vance; if they acquit themselves well, if the economy thrives, if there are no wars and if Vance is president into the 2030s then they will be a permanent realignment based on class rather than culture. 2024 will be the realignment election. That putative “realignment,” if it materializes, will go through the Battleground states of PA/MI/WI/NC/GA/AZ and NV, with 89 EVs. All 7 of those states were won narrowly by Trump. Trump won WI by 29,397 votes, MI by 80,103, NH by 22,956, NV by 46,008; that’s 36 EVs. Trump also won much bigger in PA by 120,266, GA by 115,106, NC by 183,046 and AZ by 187,382. That’s 57 more EVs. Six of the 7 went for Biden-Harris in 2020. IF they go for Vance next time then there is a solidification toward the conservatism manifest in TX, OH and FL. 2026 ELECTION: Of the 33 seats up in 2024 the breakout was 11R/22D; four flipped. Of the 33 seats up in 2026 the breakout is 20R/13D, so an unpopular Trump Administration could prompt a flip. But that won’t happen. Vulnerable Republican seats are in ME (Collins), NC (Tillis) and AK (Sullivan) as are Democrats in GA (Ossoff), VA (Warner), NH (Shaheen) and MI (Peters). GA, NC and MI are Battleground states won by Trump. Retirements are imminent in ID (Risch), KY (McConnell) and IL (Durbin) where the incumbents are octogenarians, and Warner and Shaheen may also bail as they get older. Full Article...
December 11, 2024
A "KAMALA COMEBACK" IN 2028? ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY NO WAY
Vice President Kamala Harris has to be the most miserable person in America right now. Losing the 2024 presidential race to the reviled Donald Trump, Harris’s grieving will be prolonged and bitter – much like Hillary Clinton’s still is. Harris realistically had one – AND ONLY ONE – chance to be president, and that was through a Biden-Harris re-election in 2024 and then the inevitable Biden removal/succession for disability in the second term (2025-29). Harris could not have won the White House by conventionally campaigning. There can be no absolution. She blew through $1.5 billion in 110 days – and still lost to Trump. That, to the party’s Far eft base, is unforgivable. Her only path to redemption is to run and win in 2028. But that absolutely, positively will NOT happen. There’s no way the Dems will hit themselves over the head with the same hammer again. She will not have the satisfaction of beating Trump, who is term-limited. She would have to run against J.D. Vance. Attached is a CHART showing Trump's vote gain in the Battleground and Big states. Full Article...
December 4, 2024
NO ARTICLE THIS WEEK
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