December 18, 2024
REPUBLICANS NEARING PERMANENT MAJORITY IN U.S. SENATE

This year was not a year of political realignment. Instead it was a year of political reaffirmation in which ideological and cultural polarization became permanent. 

What also has arguably become permanent is Republican control of the U.S. Senate for the foreseeable future, likely into the 2030s.

It can be argued that half of the nation subscribes to the idea that political choices are dictated by your race, gender, sexual orientation and perhaps geography, and that that dictates how one votes.

The other half also believes in economic and personal self-interest, not group conformity and group-think. Individualism, capitalism, wealth accumulation, economic and personal choices and, yes, even patriotism, faith and Donald Trump are their deities. They vote for what’s good for themselves at the moment.

Trump’s decisive 312-226 electoral vote (EV) 2024 win does not mean that either half is as yet permanently winning or losing. 2020 was essentially an anti-Trump vote and 2024 an anti-Biden and anti-Woke/Left vote. 2028 will be a referendum on Trump-Vance; if they acquit themselves well, if the economy thrives, if there are no wars  and if Vance is president into the 2030s then they will be a permanent realignment based on class rather than culture. 2024 will be the realignment election.

That putative “realignment,” if it materializes, will go through the Battleground states of PA/MI/WI/NC/GA/AZ and NV, with 89 EVs. All 7 of those states were won narrowly by Trump. Trump won WI by 29,397 votes, MI by 80,103, NH by 22,956, NV by 46,008; that’s 36 EVs. Trump also won much bigger in PA by 120,266, GA by 115,106, NC by 183,046 and AZ by 187,382. That’s 57 more EVs. Six of the 7 went for Biden-Harris in 2020. IF they go for Vance next time then there is a solidification toward the conservatism manifest in TX, OH and FL.

There is already a rock-solid Republican base in 24 of the 31 states Trump won in 2024 and in 24 of the 25 states he won in 2020 (NC the exception). So Republicans start 2028 with a lock on 216 (of 270) EVs. Likewise Dems are unbeatable in 19 states and D.C., with a lock on 226 EVs. They won 25 in 2020 and 19 this year.

And this augers very well for the Republicans, who won a 53R/47D Senate majority on Nov. 5. There were 33 seats up in 2024 (11R/22D), 5 in Battleground states (PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV), with Dems winning 4, and 3 in Deep Red states (WV, OH, MT), with Republicans flipping each. In every race except Deep Blue CA and MD, Trump ran 1-5 points ahead of the party’s Senate nominee but by not enough to score wins in MI, WI, AZ and NV. 

In contrast, Trump blowouts in TX, FL, MT, WV and OH by 1,568,877, 1,427,877, 120,172, 319,241 and 645,980, respectively, gave Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, Tim Sheehy, Jim Justice and Bernie Moreno thumping wins by, respectively,959,402 , 1,379,629, 43,377, 306,53 and 206,434 votes. Clearly voters decided that they will henceforth choose BETWEEN the parties, not AMONG the candidates. And that means voting for ALL their party’s nominees from president down.

TEXAS: Since the late 1980s, Democrats have raised money for their Red-to-Blue Project in TX. The premise was that the state was becoming less and less White and that when it became majority-minority it certainly would be majority Democrat. The assumption was that Blacks and Latinos ALWAYS vote their identity. And if TX, with 40 EVs, went Blue the Dems would have a forever lock on the presidency. What a bunch of simpletons! TX has gone from White to non-White and from Red-to-Redder.

Trump won TX by 1,568,877 in 2024, up from 640,221 in 2020. That’s a 900,000-vote bump.

Cruz, an obnoxious in-your-face ideologue reviled by his colleagues and Leftists, won by just 254,921 votes in 2018; he upped that to 959,402 in 2024, beating Colin Allred who spent over $80 million. Governor Greg Abbott won by 1,081,733 in 2022 and is seeking a fourth term in 2026. With the border supposedly “sealed” as of Jan. 20 he can take a victory lap.

The TX congressional delegation is 25R/13D, with 2 Latinos and one Black among the 25R. The 2 Rio Grande Valley Latino congressmen (D) will soon lose their seats. One, Henry Cuellar, is under federal indictment for bribery and may be gone in 2025. Cuellar is the only anti-abortion Democrat in the U.S. House, which explains why Biden didn’t pardon him. The 31-member TX Senate, which has districts larger than those for the House, is now a historic 20R/11D.

Latinos are 40 percent of TX population, Whites 38 and Blacks 13. Geography  matters. Mexican-Americans along the Border, in rural areas and suburbs are working-class, care about the Open Borden fiasco, cost-of-living, education choice, inflation, family, creeping Socialism and over-spending. They want the American Dream, not a Socialist nightmare.

Mexican-Americans in urban centers – Houston, Austin, Dallas, El Paso – are much more Leftist, as are urban Whites. A Pew exit survey had Biden-Harris winning TX Latinos 58/41 in 2020, but Harris-Walz losing them 44/55 in 2024. That’s a seismic 14 point shift. TX is now gone for Democrats. 

MONTANA: How can a senator spend $88 million in a state with a population of 1,122,867 and still lose by 43,377 votes? Ask Jon Tester (D): He lost to Tim Sheehy (R), an aerospace entrepreneur and ex-Navy Seal, by 319,682-276,305, which calculates to about $31,000 per vote. That’s insane. He should have just bribed everybody with a Ford truck and gone to Acapulo. Sheehy won because Trump won MT by 352,079-231,906, a margin of 120,173. MT is also now gone.

PROJECTION:   The 24 hardcore Trump states all have 2R senators, which means 48R seats. The Democrats’ 19 hardcores mean 38 seats, minus one in Maine, for 37 seats. The 7 Battlegrounds’ 14 seats are 10D/4R, with 2Ds in GA, AZ, MI, NV, 1R/1D in WI and PA, and 2Rs in NC. Each seat will be heavily contested when they come up and Republicans have more room to keep and grow their majority.

2026 ELECTION: Of the 33 seats up in 2024 the breakout was 11R/22D; four flipped. Of the 33 seats up in 2026 the breakout is 20R/13D, so an unpopular Trump Administration could prompt a flip. But that won’t happen. Vulnerable Republican seats are in ME (Collins), NC (Tillis) and AK (Sullivan) as are Democrats in GA (Ossoff), VA (Warner), NH (Shaheen) and MI (Peters). GA, NC and MI are Battleground states won by Trump. Retirements are imminent in ID (Risch), KY (McConnell) and IL (Durbin) where the incumbents are octogenarians, and Warner and Shaheen may also bail as they get older.

Watch the popular governors in GA, NC, VA and NH: Brian Kemp (R) has built a Machine in GA. Trump lost by 11,779 in 2020 and won by 115,100 in 2024. Kemp is favored over Ossoff. Glenn Youngkin (R) is popular in VA, even though Trump lost by 265,310 votes this year; Youngkin won by 63,688 votes in 2021. Expect Warner, age 72 in 2026, to retire. Youngkin could win if Democrats pick an extreme Leftist. And Chris Sununu (R) could win in NH if Shaheen, age 79 in 2026, quits.

Harris-Walz won Maine by 57,514 votes but lost NC by 183,046.  Governor Roy Cooper (D) is running against Tillis, who won with 49 percent in 2020. Both races are toss-ups.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

This column was published in Nadig Newspapers. If you, a friend or a colleague wish to be added to Russ's BUDDY LIST, and be emailed his column every Wednesday morning, email webmaster Joe at Joe@Nadignewspapers.com