August 26, 2020
ILLINOIS HOUSE REPUBLICANS FEAR TOTAL INCONSEQUENCE -- 77-41 MADIGAN MAJORITY LIKELY
There are four stages of grief: Anger. Denial. Bargaining. Acceptance. As the dwindling and beleaguered band of 44 Illinois Republican state representatives will soon discover, a fifth stage likely awaits: Inconsequence. Republicans lost seven seats in 2018, part of an anti-Trump, anti-former governor Rauner undertow. They were down 67-51 after the 2016 election, which denied Madigan a super-majority during 2017-18. They now hold 37.2 percent of the chamber's 118 seats. They may surpass their modern-day rock bottom, which occurred after the legendary 1964 "bed sheet ballot" fiasco, an at-large (statewide) election for all 177 state representatives.My prediction for 2020: It will be a 77-41 Madigan majority. Full Article...
August 19, 2020
U.S. SENATE CONTROL HINGES ON STRAIGHT-TICKET VOTING -- DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER LIKELY
As goes Trump, so goes the U.S. Senate, now 53-47 Republican. And as goes the U.S. Senate, so goes the critical first 2 years of a potential Biden-Harris administration. The Democrats need a trifecta - control of the presidency, Senate and House - on Nov. 3 to govern properly. Otherwise, 2021-22 will be gridlock. Right now a 52-48 democratic Senate looks likely. So it will be semi-gridlock: The House passes, the Senate dawdles. Full Article...
August 12, 2020
TRUMP DEFEAT CRITICAL TO 2022 REPUBLICAN REVIVAL; BRING ON SOCIALISM
The worst fate that can befall Donald Trump is to be reelected president. And the worst fate that can befall Joe Biden is to be elected president. And the worst fate that can and will befall the American people is that 2020 will end without any significant economic, pandemic or social respite, and that 2021 will be even more miserable. There are certain 2020 political realities. First, there is enormous Trump fatigue. People are really tired - and increasingly irritated - of seeing him and listening to his platitudes. A majority of American voters clearly want the president to do one thing, which is to go away. Four more years is just unthinkable. Second, there is equally enormous Biden apprehension. His supporters cringe every time "Sleepy Joe" starts blinking before answering a question. Will there be a gaffe? Or a senior moment? A majority of American voters want a president who doesn't need a monthly cognition competence test. Can Biden be trusted to fix our country's mess? It's either Trump or him. Polls show it's Biden. And third, there will be a socialist experiment in America in the very near future. Full Article...
August 5, 2020
THE END OF THE MADIGAN ERA? NOT WITH $23,529,621 CASH ON HAND
It is said that all good things must come to an end. It is said in some political quarters that Mike Madigan’s 36-year reign as speaker of the Illinois House is now and has been a good thing. It is said in other quarters that it must come to an end, that it is a bad thing. Here’s the reality: It IS A GOOD THING for many, including sitting Democratic state representatives, trade unions and lawyers, and it is NOT going to come to an end anytime soon. The 78-year old Madigan may hang on well into the 2020s. As of Aug. 1, Madigan had cash-on-hand of $23,529,621, including $14,544,269 in Friends of Mike Madigan, $2,449,732 in the Democratic Party of Illinois, of which he is chairman, $4,300,413 in the Democratic Majority Fund, which he uses to elect/re-elect Members to retain his 74-44 House majority, and a whopping $2,235,207 in the 13th Ward Democratic Organization, of which he is Committeeperson. Wrap your brain around that: $2 million-plus in donations to a WARD Democratic organization? The donation norm (excepting Ed Burke) is around $15,000. Full Article...
July 29, 2020
1876 ELECTION "DEAL" IS ORIGIN OF 2020 U.S. RACE RELATIONS
Can you imagine a contemporary America in which at least nine states have a Black population majority, a Black governor, one or more Black U.S. senators, a Black congressional delegation majority and a Black-dominated state legislature? That was well within the realm of possibility 150 years ago in the 1870s. But because of a bunch of scheming, self-serving politicians, opportunistic presidents, and the squalid "Deal of 1876," it never happened. What did happen was that Rutherford Hayes (R), with the connivance of both pro-Republican commercial interests and ex-Confederate Southern white politicians stole the 1876 presidential election from popular-vote winner Samuel Tilden (D). The electoral vote was 185-184. And that resulted in the disenfranchisement of 4,880,000 freed southern slaves, which lasted for the next century. That's 4.8 million people. The situation was kind of like a "Cancel Culture, Part I," but against Black slaves. Full Article...
July 22, 2020
COVID-19 NO IMPEDIMENT TO PRITZKER'S FUNDRAISING -- BUT OTHERS ON "PAUSE"
Governor J.B. Pritzker has $744,615 cash on hand and raised $3,026,001 since Oct. 1. Mayor Lori Lightfoot has $1,257,528 on hand and raised $42,483. County board president Toni Preckwinkle has $4,553 on hand and raised $266,794. Speaker Mike Madigan has $13,630,169 on hand. For incumbents, money de-stabilizes a level playing field - unless the officeholder is egregiously incompetent and unpopular. Then it matters not. Think former Gov. Bruce Rauner. For challengers, having money equal to the incumbent levels the playing field, allowing the challenger to define himself/herself before the incumbent does so. D-2 campaign fund-raising disclosures must be filed quarterly. This week's chart covers receipts for the past three 90-day quarters and cash on hand as of June 30. Here are my takeaways. Full Article...
July 15, 2020
CHICAGO TEACHERS UNION FLUNKS IN 3RD DISTRICT IL HOUSE RACE
A teacher's pet almost always gets to the head of the class. But a Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) favorite doesn't necessarily go to Springfield - as was demonstrated in the Hispanic-majority 3rd Illinois House District way back on March 17. Eva Dina Delgado defeated teacher and CTU activist Nidia Carranza 6,302-5,922, with 51.5 percent of the vote despite her being the hand-picked choice of criminally-charged former state Representative Luis Arroyo (D-3) and because of the key backing of Alderman Gilbert Villegas (36th), an Arroyo protege who replaced him as 36th Ward committeeperson. Villegas is also Mayor Lori Lightfoot's City Council floor leader. He's also Arroyo's still existent 36th Ward political operation. Son Luis Arroyo Jr. is a county commissioner, and his term expires in 2022. Carranza raised $264,999, most from the CTU and teacher sources, and Delgado raised $194,258. With Arroyo gone, a battle or North Side NUMERO UNO is underway between Iris Martinez and Gil Villegas. Full Article...
July 8, 2020
IMMINENT PROPERTY TAX HIKE IMPACTS PATLAK-WENDT BOARD OF REVIEW RACE
“Quarantine” is a great concept. It’s sometimes used as a nautical term in which a seagoing vessel is detained in port for 40 days to contain a potential or actual infectious disease. It’s working for COVID-19. It’s not going to work to contain any real or perceived anger over the 2019/second installment property tax bills that will be due. There is a low-key contest for 1st Dist. Board of Review commissioner. The incumbent is Dan Patlak (R), who won 353,705-327,998 in 2016. His opponent is Tammy Wendt (D), who won the 3/17/20 primary 110,559-91,893 over the slated Abdulnasser Rashid. Patlak has nearly $600,000. Wendt was part of the Jason Van Dyke legal defense team. The district contains 27 suburban townships, and a few Chicago precincts. The Trump vote (and anti-vote) is key. Attached is a CHART detailing the 2016 vote results. Full Article...
July 1, 2020
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