August 12, 2020
TRUMP DEFEAT CRITICAL TO 2022 REPUBLICAN REVIVAL; BRING ON SOCIALISM

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

by RUSS STEWART

The worst fate that can befall Donald Trump is to be reelected president. And the worst fate that can befall Joe Biden is to be elected president. And the worst fate that can and will befall the American people is that 2020 will end without any significant economic, pandemic or social respite, and that 2021 will be even more miserable.

There are certain 2020 political realities. First, there is enormous Trump fatigue. People are really tired - and increasingly irritated - of seeing him and listening to his platitudes. A majority of American voters clearly want the president to do one thing, which is to go away. Four more years is just unthinkable.

Second, there is equally enormous Biden apprehension. His supporters cringe every time "Sleepy Joe" starts blinking before answering a question. Will there be a gaffe? Or a senior moment? A majority of American voters want a president who doesn't need a monthly cognition competence test. Can Biden be trusted to fix our country's mess? It's either Trump or him. Polls show it's Biden.

And third, there will be a socialist experiment in America in the very near future. What the COVID-19 crisis has proven is that the federal government has the power to tell citizens what to do and how to think. That it can print and spend trillions of dollars in an instant. That the capitalistic creation of wealth through work has been superseded by the government's creation of dependency through debt. That fiscal responsibility, either personal or governmental, is so passe. Who needs a "work ethic" when one can live just swell by not working? And that victimhood is not only endemic and institutional, but also virtuous and monetarily beneficial, and a pretext for indiscriminate law-breaking, street-rioting, culture-canceling and statue-toppling. The concept that government can solve everything and pay everybody has firmly taken root. A politically correct Utopia awaits.

The idea that "democratic socialism" is America's panacea will persist until it is proven that it cannot. Which means it must be tried and it must fail. There are several political scenarios:

SCENARIO NUMBER ONE: Trump wins, but with fewer popular votes than Biden (like in 2016). Biden is blamed, and accused of being insufficiently "progressive." No old moderate White guy in 2024. Democrats keep the U.S. House and take the Senate. Street protests ensue. Political chaos reigns until 2024. The economy does not robustly rebound, although 42 percent of jobs lost have been reclaimed, and Trump is blamed. COVID-19 vaccines prove to be of spotty effectiveness. City and state governments drown in deficits, and demand federal bailouts, which Trump resists. Evictions and foreclosures explode, unemployment remains over 10 percent, crime skyrockets, big-city police are "defunded," street protests about everything persist, and Trump's U.S. Supreme Court picks are stalled. With no quick COVID-19 cure and no economic turnabout, the stock market plunges to under 20,000, and then 15,000, wiping-out vast retiree wealth. And with foreclosures starting to glut the housing market and property taxes soaring, home prices - especially for multi-unit apartment buildings - collapse. And the airlines, with United Airlines first in line, start Chapter 13 bankruptcies. It's Depression time.

Democrats win lopsided House and Senate majorities in 2022. A new generation of progressives, not including Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, embarks on a quest for the presidency in 2024, and one wins, defeating Mike Pence. The "socialist experiment" is underway: Green New Deal, open borders, amnesty for undocumented immigrants, Medicare for all, defund the military, free college tuition, reparations for slavery, forgiveness of student loans, infrastructure upgrades, and a Guaranteed Annual Income ($10,000) for everybody. Democrats will have 4 years (2025-28) to do real damage.

SCENARIO NUMBER TWO: Biden wins, Democrats take the Senate, no "protests" ensue, and Biden's promise to be "the most progressive president in history" is put to the test. He fails. The Democrats' "wish list," as set forth above, is not enacted because there is no money, but there will be plenty of new regulations, especially on energy producers, and proposed military cuts and proposed tax hikes on "the wealthy." That's the $1 trillion needed to fund their plan. The consequences of the Depression, as set forth above, will occur under Biden (as they would under Trump).

Trump-free Republicans will make a roaring comeback in 2022, retaking the House and Senate and stalemating the nascent "socialist experiment." There will be no Biden "cure," because there are no quick and easy solutions to our intractable problems. Everything is much worse in 2024 than in 2020.

SCENARIO NUMBER THREE: Biden wins but Republicans keep a Senate majority. That definitely stalls not only the "wish list" but any 2022 Republican comeback. Republicans will be blamed for all ills, and Democrats will retake the Senate. But then the "socialist experiment" can proceed unimpeded during 2023-24. Again, if everything is still much worse in 2024 than in 2020, Republicans win. If things are somewhat better in 2024 than 2020, Democrats win.

And there is one further reality: America's electorate is becoming much younger and progressive. Maintenance of the status quo is the paramount issue: Does it change incrementally, as always? Or does it change monumentally, right now?

Mitt Romney caught a lot of flak in 2012 when he claimed that 47 percent of the U.S. population is supported by the taxes paid by the other 53 percent. In COVID-19 America that ratio is now something like 60 percent payees and 40 percent payers. That is not sustainable in a capitalistic society. Nor is a COVID-19-caused national debt uptick to $26 trillion, which means the annual under-1.2 percent interest paid on the U.S. Treasury's bills, bonds and notes would now be somewhere around $2 trillion. The whole U.S. budget, at least in 2019, was $4.3 trillion.

Imagine the U.S. budget as four pillars of $1 trillion each: (1) Social security, Medicare/healthcare and the disabled. (2) Active military, pensions and VA benefits. (3) Interest on the national debt. And (4) all other ongoing federal operations and pensions, including revenue sharing and education. Because the Fed has kept the prime rate low, and thus interest rates on bank borrowing low, consumer and mortgage loans have been available. In the past 6 months the Fed has just created $8 trillion in debt instruments, which it holds, and the federal government has paid out money that it does not have, with another $1.3 trillion relief package to come.

The federal deficit, which is the difference between incoming revenues and outgoing expenditures, was $2.8 trillion in fiscal 2019-20. With the U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the value of goods and services transacted, down 32 percent in the second quarter (April-June), and unemployment at a historic but slowly declining level of 40 million, the third quarter (July-Sept.) looks grim, as does the fourth quarter. A recession is two or more quarters of negative GDP growth. That means 2021 will begin a Depression.

Socialism is defined as a political system in which ownership and operation of the means of production and distribution has transitioned from private individuals to the State, meaning government. In Marxist dialect, it is the systemic stage that replaces capitalism and precedes communism. The democratic system in America is based on the premise of life, liberty and pursuit of happiness, including property rights and gun rights. An authoritarian government is not envisioned.

Yet for the emerging generation of "democratic socialists" an authoritarian government is exactly what they envision. They and their progressive allies want cancel-culture, systemic change, and a redistribution of wealth. Of no concern is how wealth is created. Ambition, individual initiative and self-enterprise by some have become "discriminatory" against others not so inclined. Meritocracy is being replaced by conformity, a dumbing-down to mediocrity.

Democrats need a trifecta on Nov. 3, which means a Biden win and a net Senate pickup of 4 seats. Polling has shown tight contests for Republican-held seats in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina and Maine, with upsets possible in Kentucky, Montana, Iowa and Kansas. Biden is running well ahead of Trump in ME and CO. Republicans will flip a Democratic seat in Alabama. The likely outcome is a 51-49 Democratic takeover.

Biden has proclaimed that he will be a "transitional" president, meaning a one-termer. But a whole lot of those on the left of the political spectrum are skeptical. Might not it be better to keep Trump around for another term, and then install a real "democratic socialist" in 2024?

Trump was elected in 2016 because a lot of non-progressive, non-minority voters wanted to throw a wrench into elitist Washington, to figuratively "drain the swamp." COVID-19 has drained that attitude. The coming decade will be grim years for capitalism and capitalists. Wealth will implode under the onerous weight of government and of government debt. As Samuel L. Jackson said in the film "Jurassic Park," "Hold on to your butts."