December 18, 2024
REPUBLICANS NEARING PERMANENT MAJORITY IN U.S. SENATE
This year was not a year of political realignment. Instead it was a year of political reaffirmation in which ideological and cultural polarization became permanent. What also has arguably become permanent is Republican control of the U.S. Senate for the foreseeable future, likely into the 2030s. Trump’s decisive 312-226 electoral vote (EV) 2024 win does not mean that either half is as yet permanently winning or losing. 2020 was essentially an anti-Trump vote and 2024 an anti-Biden and anti-Woke/Left vote. 2028 will be a referendum on Trump-Vance; if they acquit themselves well, if the economy thrives, if there are no wars and if Vance is president into the 2030s then they will be a permanent realignment based on class rather than culture. 2024 will be the realignment election. That putative “realignment,” if it materializes, will go through the Battleground states of PA/MI/WI/NC/GA/AZ and NV, with 89 EVs. All 7 of those states were won narrowly by Trump. Trump won WI by 29,397 votes, MI by 80,103, NH by 22,956, NV by 46,008; that’s 36 EVs. Trump also won much bigger in PA by 120,266, GA by 115,106, NC by 183,046 and AZ by 187,382. That’s 57 more EVs. Six of the 7 went for Biden-Harris in 2020. IF they go for Vance next time then there is a solidification toward the conservatism manifest in TX, OH and FL. 2026 ELECTION: Of the 33 seats up in 2024 the breakout was 11R/22D; four flipped. Of the 33 seats up in 2026 the breakout is 20R/13D, so an unpopular Trump Administration could prompt a flip. But that won’t happen. Vulnerable Republican seats are in ME (Collins), NC (Tillis) and AK (Sullivan) as are Democrats in GA (Ossoff), VA (Warner), NH (Shaheen) and MI (Peters). GA, NC and MI are Battleground states won by Trump. Retirements are imminent in ID (Risch), KY (McConnell) and IL (Durbin) where the incumbents are octogenarians, and Warner and Shaheen may also bail as they get older. Full Article...
December 11, 2024
A "KAMALA COMEBACK" IN 2028? ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY NO WAY
Vice President Kamala Harris has to be the most miserable person in America right now. Losing the 2024 presidential race to the reviled Donald Trump, Harris’s grieving will be prolonged and bitter – much like Hillary Clinton’s still is. Harris realistically had one – AND ONLY ONE – chance to be president, and that was through a Biden-Harris re-election in 2024 and then the inevitable Biden removal/succession for disability in the second term (2025-29). Harris could not have won the White House by conventionally campaigning. There can be no absolution. She blew through $1.5 billion in 110 days – and still lost to Trump. That, to the party’s Far eft base, is unforgivable. Her only path to redemption is to run and win in 2028. But that absolutely, positively will NOT happen. There’s no way the Dems will hit themselves over the head with the same hammer again. She will not have the satisfaction of beating Trump, who is term-limited. She would have to run against J.D. Vance. Attached is a CHART showing Trump's vote gain in the Battleground and Big states. Full Article...
December 4, 2024
NO ARTICLE THIS WEEK
November 27, 2024
CTU GETS CLOBBERED, LOSING 6 OF 9 CHICAGO SCHOOL BOARD RACES
One proverb proclaims that “Blessed are those who expect nothing, for they shall not be disappointed.” The obverse would be, especially as applied to Chicago Public Schools (CPS), that “Cursed are those who expect something” – like “quality” education – “for they shall most certainly be disappointed.” No one can argue with the lofty and Utopian goals of the Chicago Teachers Union. Everyone wants good education for their kids, right? It’s its outright arrogance that pisses people off. The union, without question, always expects something – like higher pay, smaller classrooms, more time off, no accountability (audits, anyone?) – and they are never disappointed. The CTU, where Mayor Brandon Johnson was once an operative/organizer, will always deliver for their dues-paying members – like their new contract. Except on Nov. 5. Whereas the CTU expects the mayor and CPS bureaucracy to be obsequious and compliant, voters thought otherwise. Instead of electing CPS-endorsed toadies to the newly-created Chicago School Board (CSB), and after $1.7 million of CTU “messaging,” Chicago voters DID NOT deliver. In what was supposed to be a CTU slam-dunk in ten of ten district contests the CTU candidates won just 4 of 10. This column prides itself on its expertise on number-crunching, and the 2024 numbers bode-ill for the CTU in 2026 – and, by extension, Johnson in 2027. Chicago’s population is 2,746,388 and the registered voters (RVs) are 1,498,873 with a November turnout of 1,018,350, which was 67.9 percent. As set forth in the chart, 807,907 Chicagoans voted in the CSB races, which is 54 percent of the RVs. The cumulative city vote for all 10 CTU candidates was 334,622, which is 22.3 percent of the RVs and 32.8 percent of the turnout. That, for CTU, was pathetic. Full Article...
November 20, 2024
HARRIS UNDERPERFORMS BIDEN IN CHICAGO BY 172,311 VOTES
Chicago has turned red by 15,520 votes. That’s meaningless if not ludicrous in a city of 2,746,388. Donald Trump got a dismal 15.5 percent in 2020 but upped that to 20.6 percent in 2024. What is meaningful is that the city’s Democratic presidential vote dropped by 175,311 from Biden-Harris to Harris-Walz – 944,735 to 769,424. Chicago is turning opaque. Chicago’s turnout plunged by 160,653, with 62 percent of the 1,498,873 registered voters casting a ballot. In an election where “democracy” was under threat, Trump was deemed Hitler, tyranny was imminent and Trump voters were “garbage,” it must be a relief to Chicagoans that only 202,954 of their brethren live in a dumpster. It is a concern, however, to the Democratic establishment that the Harris-Walz vote was just 28 percent of the city’s population and just 51.3 percent of the registered voters. And also that the Republican vote (20.5 percent) combined with the ex-Biden, anti-Harris non-voters, who are implacably anti-Trump, was more than 40 percent on Nov. 5. The Never-Harris types are miserable with the quality of their lives and the trajectory of this city. The popular vote at last count was 76,537,938-73,922,071 or 50-48.3 percent. Trump carried 31 states and Harris only 19 plus D.C. In 2020 the vote was 81,268,867-74,216,747, which means Trump’s 2020 base turned out while the Biden/anti-Trump base withered by a stunning 7.4 million. That was evident in both Chicago and the Cook County suburbs, where Harris won 644,190-373,096 (62.5 percent) in a 1,053,347 turnout compared to Biden’s 781,238-377,036 win with 66.9 percent in a 1,188,017 turnout. What happened is that 137,000 of the former Biden base just refused to vote. MY VICTORY LAP: This columnist got it ABSOLUTELY, AMAZINGLY right on my 2024 predictions. But practice makes perfect. In my Oct. 30 pre-election column I called it for Trump, for a Trump sweep of all 7 battleground (GA, NC, PA, MI, WI, NV and AZ) and a blowout electoral vote (EV) of 312-226. ATTACHED is a CHART detailing the NW Side ward-by-ward Biden/Harris vote differential. Full Article...
November 13, 2024
NO ARTICLE THIS WEEK
November 6, 2024
NO ARTICLE THIS WEEK
October 30, 2024
TRUMP WILL DEFEAT HARRIS IN A 312-226 ELECTORAL VOTE BLOWOUT
November 6 will be a “Day of Trauma” in certain parts of America. It will be the beginning of agony and ecstasy all at the same time. Set up the triage units. Break out the tranquilizers and sedatives. Expect all the 911 EMTs to be on overtime readiness. Get ready for an epidemic of Trump derangement syndrome (TDS) on the Radical Left. And that’s all because Donald Trump will have won on Nov. 5. I predict that he will have triumphed by an electoral vote (EV) of 312-226. Trump will have won ALL seven battleground states – PA, MI, WI, NC, GA, NV, AZ. He is now ahead in each state, albeit by miniscule margins, but he lost all but NC in 2020. Assemble a whole bunch of earplugs. Get ready for an ear-splitting crescendo of whining, moaning, groaning, ranting, raving, caterwauling, regurgitating, trembling, whimpering, pleading, plotting (Impeach Now) and grieving. All is lost. Apocalypse Now. Armageddon. End of Days. It will be the SIX stages of grief (not 5): Hysteria, Anger, Denial, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. Of course, I may be wrong, but the same thing will apply to Trump supporters if Harris does win. TDS will consume the media, who will shriek in disbelief about those “deranged” Americans who had the temerity to not vote for Kamala Harris. What’s wrong with them? Hillary Clinton, America’s favorite sourpuss will be trotted out to demand that every Trump voter be “re-programmed” ASAP, as democracy is in dire peril. Prediction: Kamala’s most enduring quote from 2024’s campaign is “What can be, unburdened by what has been.” Fortunately on Nov. 6 we will have been unburdened by the phoniness of Kamala Harris, and the Radical Left will be burdened by the past, which is Trump. Also analyzed is the CSB 1st District contest. Full Article...
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