Russ Stewart
Attorney at Law & Political Analyst

August 25, 2010 REPUBLICANS EXPECT 6-SEAT GAIN IN ILLINOIS HOUSE "Change We Need." Sound familiar? For 26 of the past 28 years, Democrat Mike Madigan has been the speaker of the Illinois House -- and the dominant force in state government. He's pursued his task with gusto and passion. His philosophy is simple: Me, Myself and Mike. He'll do whatever is necessary to hold onto his power. Democrats hold a 70-48 majority, and once hoped for a 2-seat gain in 2010, which would give Iron Mike a veto-proof super-majority. No longer. The question now: How many seats will Madgian's Democrats lose? Madigan will spend $5 million. But at least 6 seats will flip -- the 95th (Schaumburg), 43rd (Elgin), 66th (Mt. Prospect), 44th (Streamwood), 71st (East Moline), 98th (Taylorville) and 112th (Collinsville) are the most at risk for Democrats, but upsets are possible in the 85th, 92nd, 59th, 75th and 36th districts. Only one Republican seat is in jeopardy: The 17th (Glenview). If voters really want a "change" in Springfield, the first step is to oust Madigan.    full article...

August 18, 2010 "HAVES" VS. "HAVE-NOTS" SQUARE OFF IN 2011 ALDERMAN RACES IN 46TH, 49TH WARDS In Chicago's Lakefront 46th Ward (Uptown) and 49th Ward (Rogers Park) -- both bastions of liberalism which Barack Obama carried with over 80% in 2008 -- there is a noteworthy phenomena: Creeping capitalism, attributable to a growing propertied class. Twenty years ago, both wards were dominated politically by the under-class: criminals, drug-dealers, prostitutes, flophouses, half-way houses, addicts, taverns, welfare recipients, panhandlers, storefront day-labor agencies, along with their handmaidens, social workers and liberal apologists. Both wards were over 90% rental units. Since 1999, over 6,000 rental units were converted to condos in the 49th Ward, and about 4,000 in the 46th Ward, bought primarily by singles and gays. They have no sympathy for society's "victims." These new "haves" want city services, crime-free streets, and no perverts or derelicts. In 2011's aldermanic election, the "have-nots" will continue their slow fade. Ald. Helen Shiller (46th) is quitting, and Ald. Joe Moore (49th) has reinvented himself as a "service" alderman. Capitalism is triumphant.    full article...

August 11, 2010 QUINN'S ELECTION PLEA: I'M INEPT, BUT BRADY'S CRAZY Gov. Pat Quinn has embraced a desperately negative approach to his re-election. In March, according to the Rasmussen poll, he trailed Bill Brady (R) by 47-37%; in June, it was 43-40%; in July, it was back to 47-37%. Obviously, Brady is getting no traction, no poll movement. But, ominously for Quinn, he has yet to break 40% -- fully three-fifths of Illinoisans, according to the poll, refuse to support Quinn. Quinn's media ads have pounded Brady for his opposition to abortion, support for reducing the minimum wage, and support of gun rights. In effect, Quinn is making this plea: I may be incompetent, inept, and intend to raise your taxes, but Brady's crazy. It's not working. Brady has yet to define himself. He should be relentlessly uttering 6 words: New Jersey. It can be done. In NJ, newly-elected Gov. Chris Christie promised not to raise taxes if elected in 2009. NJ had an $11 billion revenue shortfall. IL has a $13 billion shortfall. Christine kept his promise: He cut spending, didn't raise taxes. That should be Brady's mantra. Brady can win. In the IL Secretary of State, Bob Enriquez (R) calls incumbent Jesse White (D) the "poster boy" for what's wrong in IL politics; White's been in public office since the 1970s. But White has two huge advantages: He's not George Ryan (his corrupt predecessor); and the office has been almost miraculously free of scandal for the past 12 years. White will get 62%.    full article...

August 4, 2010 MAYOR ELECTABILITY INDEX: THE 2015 CHICAGO RACE IS UNDERWAY In Chicago, the mayor is not just atop the heap; he's the master of the political universe. But mayors are mortals, and Rich Daley's time is ebbing. "Wait until 2015," he's telling potential successors. Daley, 68, wants just one more term, despite his sagging popularity. The 2011 election will be a referendum on Daley. The mayor's fear: That disgusted city voters, weary of crime and corruption, will embrace ABD -- Anybody But Daley. If somebody credible runs, they could win. Attached to this posting is a "Mayor Electability Index" (which can also be found elsewhere on this website), rating 22 potential mayoral wannabes. The frontrunners: Lisa Madigan, James Meeks, Tom Dart and Bill Daley. The next tier: Toni Preckwinkle, Rahm Emanuel, Dan Hynes, Forrest Claypool and David Hoffman. The 2015 race is underway. Remember this: In 2007, Daley got 318,578 votes -- just 22% of the registered voters.    full article...