January 01, 2025
RABBITT HAS "NO PLANS" TO CHALLENGE STATE REP KELLY IN 2026, MAYBE GARDINER IN 2027
45th Ward Democratic committeeperson Michael Rabbitt is taking what he calls a well-deserved victory lap after proclaiming that the ward’s “Blue Wall” withstood Nov. 5th’s “Trump Wave” on the Northwest Side.
Rabbitt, elected committeeperson last March, said that he has “built an organization where there was none” when Alderman Jim Gardiner held the party post (2020-24) and that the 45th Ward “is not at all like” the adjoining 38th and 41st wards which went, respectively, 44 and 51.1 percent for Trump in 2024. The vote was 10,322-12,842 in the 38th and 13,641-12,702 in the 41st.
The 45th Ward went 16,178-8,629 for Harris-Walz over Trump-Vance, a 64.2-34.3 percent margin. Of the 29 precincts not one gave a majority to Trump. He won more than 40 percent in the 7th precinct, about 30 percent in 13th precinct, and under 30 percent in the 9th precinct, getting crushed in the South End (Portage Park) but growing his vote slightly per precinct moving north through Jefferson Park, Gladstone Park and to Edgebrook/Wildwood north of Devon, where Rabbitt lives. The area was added from the 41st Ward after the 2021 remap.
But it didn’t require mammoth exertion by Rabbitt to carry the ward for Harris. Clinton-Kaine won 16,082-6,587 in 2016, with 67.2 percent. Biden-Harris won 18,727-8,304 in 2020, with 68 percent. So the Democratic/hardcore anti-Trump base vote increased by 96 votes over 2016 and declined by 2,549 over 2020.
Conversely, Trump upped his vote by 2,042, from 27.5 percent in 2016 to 34.3 in 2024. This may be attributable to the remap, which eliminated six liberal precincts from the South End (Old Irving, Independence Park, west Portage Park) and added six from the north. The 45th is solidly, but not overwhelmingly Democratic, except in aldermanic elections. And that’s where Rabbitt, age 61 and a project coordinator at Argonne Laboratory, is focusing. “I have no plans to challenge” state Representative Mike Kelly (D-15) in the 2026 primary (D), said Rabbitt, who lost to Kelly 6,282-5,715 in 2022, a margin of 567 votes, getting 47.6 percent.
Rabbitt had just $740 in his campaign account, compared to Kelly’s $117,090, as of Sept. 30. But Kelly will get the monetary support of IL House speaker Chris Welch (D); he has $7,374,193.91 cash-on-hand since September in his campaign account, which is used to support incumbents (D) in primaries. So expect Rabbitt to follow the “grass is greener” path – which means sticking to his ward and focusing on beating Gardiner in 2027 rather than spend months trooping through the 15th District and the 39th Ward, Kelly’s base.
Nominating petitions for 2026 hit the street in late August 2025. Rabbitt said he is going to devote most of his time to his party job, which involves slate making for the Democrats’ 2026 county and state ticket. On the ballot next year will be U.S. Senator, county board president, sheriff, assessor, clerk, treasurer, 4 MWRD commissioners, and governor, LG, AG, secretary of state, comptroller and treasurer.
The “pre-stating” will occur in late June as aspirants show-up and suck-up; the party bigwigs then decide who gets what, and then all 80 city and suburban come back in August to ratify those choices.
This will be Rabbitt’s first opportunity to be told what to do. According to party sources both Dick Durbin and Toni Preckwinkle are mulling retirement so a lot is at stake.
It happens that Rabbitt’s six North End precincts are in the 15th District and the only 45th Ward precincts in Kelly’s district. It also happens that Kelly, age 49, has deep roots in Mayfair, has been a CFD firefighter since 2003 and still reports to the stationhouse roughly 110 days per year (less with furlough and paid vacation days), for which he is paid about $700-per day – except when he is in session in Springfield, which is 80-90 days per year. Rabbitt has some residual name ID from 2022 and could make “double-dipping” (drawing 2 public paychecks) an issue, although he said little in 2022.
Area voters don’t seem to have a problem with job-gobbling workaholic politicians. They, of course, MUST be working TWICE as hard as any other “public servant,” and deserve two or more pensions.
Kelly’s predecessor, John D’Amico, who Kelly was appointed to replace in Nov. 2021, worked for the city water department for nearly 40 years, from age 18 until retiring. While a “part-time” state rep (2005-21) his day job was district supervisor which entailed driving around to check on field crews at sewer-repair job sites. Other multi-taskers include Roger McAuliffe, Bill Laurino (D’Amico’s uncle), Ralph Capparelli, Walter Dudycz, Rich Bradley and Brad Stephens (R-20), Rosemont’s $290,000-a year mayor.
A knock on Kelly is that he doesn’t work the precincts, as did D’Amico, now the plumbers union political director, who still has $277,800 in his campaign account. “I’m running for re-election,” said Kelly, and “I’m very active in the community.” Kelly will have the support of benefactors D’Amico, alderwoman Sam Nugent (39th) and predecessor Marge Laurino (1994-2019), daughter of her predecessor Tony Laurino (1965-94), aunt of John and sister of Bill. Legacy rules.
Rabbitt, if he ran, could have the support of state senator Ram Villivalam (D-8), who has $678,398 on-hand and is the 39th Ward committeeperson (D). But Villivalam is afflicted with the “phantom senator jinx.” Absence may make the heart grow fonder and out-of-sight is out-of-mind but anonymity is politically unhelpful in the long run.
Exhibit A is ex-senator Ira Silverstein (D-8), who Villivalam ousted 14,689-8,586 in 2018 after revelations of obsessive texting to a female lobbyist. The legislature’s IG exonerated him of sexual harassment but found his conduct “unbecoming.” An Orthodox Jew from the 50th Ward, Silverstein ignored the West End for 20 years. He built no name ID nor goodwill. When accused, voters (D) had no reason to disbelieve and rejected him.
Exhibit B is ex-senator Howie Carroll (D), also from the 50th Ward, elected in 1972 at age 30. His clout was his father, a union heavyweight close to Mayor Richard Daley. Carroll ignored the West End and the suburbs (Evanston, Skokie). When he ran for congressman in 1998 he lost to state rep Jan Schakowsky who got 70 percent in her suburban base and Carroll under 40 percent in Chicago.
Exhibit C will be Villivalam. He endorsed 39th Ward losers Clayton Harris, Liam Kelly and (winner) Brandon Johnson. Only the intimidation of his money keeps him safe.
“It is too early to think about” 2027, said Rabbitt, when Gardiner will run for another term, as will the city’s mayor. Who is Rabbitt kidding? Politicians do two things well: Lie and perpetually plot their advancement. Does that mean “not at this time”? I asked Rabbitt. “I have no plans.” You bet he’s chomping to try to take out Gardiner.
So, too, are the ward’s non-moderate lefty liberals, state rep Lindsey LaPointe (D-19) and state senator Rob Martwick (D-10), who lives in the 38th Ward. Both represent most of the 45th Ward. Martwick, a wealthy lawyer, established his bona fides by endorsing Johnson for mayor early on. They all understand the value of networking, of identifying like-minded voters, of compiling an ongoing joint database dating to 2011, of constant e-mails, propaganda and reinforcement, of incessant online chatter.
They know their base. Their 2027 candidate is Rabbitt. Their target is the reviled Gardiner, a conservative, anti-Johnson firefighter whose texts and message got him in trouble with the city council and, in some people’s eyes, with the public.
AT THIS TIME Rabbitt is favored to win. But Gardiner has a lot of development coming into the ward, including a Trader Joe’s, which will benefit him LATER. People love the TJ.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
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