August 28, 2024
WHILE HARRIS IS RESHAPING THE TRUMP-HARRIS RACE IS HARDENING

I’m not going out on a limb. With less than 70 days to go, I’m not going to try to predict the outcome of the Trump-Harris presidential contest.

I don’t have a clue, and neither do the gaggle of pundits and pollsters who pretend to be all-seeing and all-knowing.  At this point in 2020, Biden was up 2.8 points and Clinton up 11.7 in 2016.

As August comes to an end both Trump and Harris have hit their voter base ceiling, which is 48-49 percent, and that base is rock solid.

The enduring oddity is that Joe Biden didn’t get a popularity bump by withdrawing. No fond well-wishes, just thankful good riddance. Recent approval/disapproval polling shows Biden’s disapproval remains mired in the low 40s, as it has for the past 3 years. It seems Americans’ quality of life is bad and not getting better.

Recent polling has the president’s, or more accurately, the Biden-Harris administration’s policies approve/disapprove at 44/55 (Rasmussen, 8/25), 43/56 (Rasmussen, 8/22), 43/56 (Gallup, 8/21), 40/56 (HarrisX, 8/21), 43/56 (Data for Progress, 8/21), 42/56 (Economist/YouGov, 8/20) and a pathetic 37/55 (ABC/Washington Post, 8/17).

Yet Kamala Harris, Biden’s VP, is polling at near-majority levels, albeit about 2 to 3 points less than Biden’s  51 percent 2020 showing, and Trump is polling just slightly above his 46.9. in August. Polls by Rasmussen have Harris up nationally 49/46 and by 47/45/4/1/1 in a multi-candidate race, Data for Progress 49/46 and 47/43/5/0/1, HarrisX 46/45 and 46/44/9/1/1, Economist/You Gov 51/48, a Washington Post 49/45 and Emerson 50/46 and 48/44./4/1/1.
But Morning Consult had Trump up 49/48, FOX had him up 50/49 and Rasmussen earlier up 49/45.

So what does this polling mean? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Every poll has a sample of 600-1,000 likely (best) or registered (not best) voters with a margin-of-error (MOE) of +/- 4 percent.
So Nov. 5 is not just too-close-to-call but totally blurred. A national polling sample must balance a jumble of  demographics and usually under-or over-polls one of them. And the current polls are just a meaningless blur. Nobody can really know who is winning and the outcome is wholly dependent one who wins the Big Seven battleground states PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV, NC and GA.

As of now, RealClear Politics’ EV projection has it at 275/263 Trump/Harris.

Since Trump lost 308-232 in 2020 he needs to pick up 38 EVs; since Biden-Harris won 308-232, Harris can’t lose more than 38 EVs.

What is noteworthy about current polling is the dichotomy between voters’ feelings and facts. Polls show a consistent 55-57 percent disapproval of Biden-Harris’ performance, yet at least 8 percent of that number are going to vote for Harris-Walz.

Why would somebody who does NOT want more-of-the-same (MOTS) and is unsatisfied with the status quo vote for somebody (Harris) who give them MOTS and maintain the status quo until 2028? The obvious answer is abject hate of Trump and of the Trump Nation.

This election’s determinative voters are the 4 percent in the middle who neither adore nor detest Trump, who are not repulsed by what’s going on, and who buy Harris’s new line that she is the candidate of joy, hope and change. Harris is rolling out a new image – she is, according to the fawning Left/Woke media, RESHAPING her viewpoints on some crucial issues, which is part of her “evolving” process, a learning curve which takes her from far-Left to Center-Left.

In historical terms that means sheer opportunism. Abraham Lincoln  ran on a promise not to end slavery but to merely restrict it to where it already existed. Woodrow Wilson ran on a promise to “keep our boys” out of a European war, but then after being re-elected in 1916 joined WWI. Harris’s lifetime of left-wing stances are now inconvenient, as is her connection to Biden. So she is Rethinking, Revising, Revisiting, Realigning, Reinventing, Recreating and, yes, Reshaping, her views so as not to Repulse those not already cemented into her base.

She is not Rejecting or Renouncing her past statements,  just conveniently abandoning them for the time being.  And because of the abbreviated nature of this campaign it could work.

For those of us old enough to remember Richard Nixon, he ran in 1968 with a “secret plan” to end the interminable Vietnam War. He couldn’t say what it was because it was a “secret.”

Nixon had a huge lead after the raucous 1968 Democratic convention and chose to sit on it for 3 months, while Hubert Humphrey barnstormed the country, distanced himself from LBJ (he was VP) and “evolved” into the “peace” candidate. That didn’t mean immediately withdrawing troops or denouncing the premise of the war, as prosecuted by the Johnson-Humphrey administration for 4 years. It just meant “de-escalation” and gullible voters bought it. Nixon’s 60 percent in the August polls shrank to a 43-42 win in November, with George Wallace getting the rest.

But those not too old can remember John McCain’s 2008 plight after the Wall Street implosions and recession of 2006-07; he could not erase that from voters’ consciousness. He was the W. Bush II candidate. 

Harris is replicating Nixon’s strategy. She is speaking is platitudes, hugging her teleprompter, avoiding  non-scripted media events and fervently expecting that her personality will eclipse her policy  positions. After all, her election would be HISTORIC. “We did it Joe.”

Never mind the historic mess that Biden is leaving behind. “When I am President, it will be a day one priority to bring down prices,” Harris said. She’ll fix it all on Day One. Of course that’s BS.

In theory a president cannot govern effectively without congressional majorities, although executive orders are now the norm.

Biden undid Trump’s border and energy policies in one day with the stroke of a pen. But power is power and is not surrendered willingly. Biden was dumped because his obvious debate infirmity jeopardized Democratic U.S. Senate (now 51D-49R) control and retaking the U.S. House. The vote in Trump-Harris will have a straight-ticket down-ballot impact, especially in the AZ, NV, MT, OH, MI, PA, WI, TX and FL Senate races.

Despite early polling showing  Dems ahead in NV, AZ, MI, OH and PA, it is difficult to envision a Trump voter backing a Democrat for senator.  After all a Trump presidency would be instantly gridlocked by a Dem-controlled Senate. That will not happen. The question is how many seats the Republicans will gain – 2 in 2024 is a 51R-49D majority, erasable in 2026; but 4 or 5 would carry Republicans through 2028.   

WEST VIRGINIA: A Republican pick-up of retiring Joe Manchin’s (D) seat is a certainty. Governor Jim Justice (R) is running. Trump got 64 percent in 2020. A Justice win gives Republicans 50 seats.

MONTANA: 18-year incumbent  Jon Tester (D) had $-11 million- on-hand, but a deluge of money can’t conceal his pro-Biden record. Tester is a folksy farmer but not pro-Trump. Trump won MT with in 2020 and an 8/20 Rasmussen poll had him up 58/35 and an 8/6 Emerson poll had him up 55/40. Ex-Navy SEAL and wealthy aerospace businessman Tim Sheehy is the Republican candidate.  A Rasmussen (8/20) poll had Sheehy up 50/43, NBC (8/12) up 51/45, and Emerson (8/6) up 48/46. This race is over. Tester has not endorsed Harris but cannot survive a 100,000-plus Trump win. Sheehy makes it 51R-49D.

Now it gets tougher.

OHIO: Bernie Moreno is a wealthy Cleveland-area car dealer and is pro-Trump in a state Trump won by almost 400,000 votes in 2020. A Rasmussen (8/17) poll has Trump beating Harris 51/44 and Fabrizio had it 52/42. That’s landslide.

Yet in the senate race 18-year incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is beating Moreno 47/42 in the latest Rasmussen poll. For Democrats, this is a MUST-WIN. That’s doubtful.

MICHIGAN: There’s no doubt that Harris will not win if she loses MI, which Biden won in 2020 and Trump in 2016. The latest polls show Harris up 48/46, 48/47, and 48/48 (Fabrizio). But there’s minimal trickle-down thus far in the Slotkin/Rogers senate race. The numbers there are 49/39, 45/43, 47/44 and 46/42. There will be very few Trump/Slotkin voters, but Rogers cannot win unless Trump wins MI by over 50,000.

PENNSYLVANIA: Like Michigan, PA is a MUST WIN. Whoever wins BOTH is the president.  Trump is ahead in polls:  47/46 in Rasmussen, 49/48 in Emerson, 46/44 in Trafalgar, 47/46 in Insider Advantage. In the Casey/McCormick senate race, Casey (D), the 18-year incumbent, is ahead 46/43 in the latest Rasmussen poll. Casey has extolled Harris as a great VP. If Trump wins big Casey goes down.

WISCONSIN: Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. The latest polls show Harris up 48/46, 46/45 and 49/43. In the Baldwin/Hovde senate race the incumbent (D) is up50/42, 51/44 and 50/43. WI looks Democratic.

ARIZONA: Trump lost AZ by 10,000 votes in 2020 but is on track to win it this year. Recent polling is 47/45, 48/47 and 45/50. In the Gallego/Lake senate race Trumpster Lake has trailed by a consistent 6 points.  Trump will win but Lake will lose.

My prediction: There will be no wave, and nothing will change after Nov. 5 unless Trump wins.  How’s that for joy?

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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