August 7, 2024
"SWOON & BARF!" HARRIS GIVES RESTORATION, NOT A SURGE

Swoon & Barf! That’s not the latest competitor to Crate & Barrel. Nor is it the latest all-you-can-eat late-night entrée on White Castle’s or Applebee’s menu.

Swoon & Barf is the current mindset of the American electorate. Just slightly less than half now swoon over Kamala Harris, writhing in a fit of ecstasy just contemplating her imminent, historic election as president and that same half literally barfs at the prospect of a second Trump presidency. She was kept away for almost 4 years, in silence, and now she’s the savior.

The “End of Democracy” is the perpetual refrain. Despair and despondency reigns. Without question, Harris has re-ignited enthusiasm on the Left. Anyone but Trump, right?

Conversely, just slightly less than 100 percent of the other half barfs at Biden-Harris Part II, where absolutely nothing will change; they think Harris is a fraud and a fake, and swoon at a second Trump term. And the remaining 3-5 percent just wish they could hibernate for the next 90 days and wake up on Thanksgiving, and actually enjoy themselves.

Without question, there has been some political movement – in the Democrats’ favor – since Joe Biden bailed on July 21. But that movement has basically been a restoration of the pre-June 27 pre-debate Biden floor, not a Harris surge. Harris is doing a few points better than Biden; Trump has not dipped. Nobody thus far has topped 50 percent. What is clear 90 days out from Nov. 5 is that there is an implacable anti-Trump base of 47-48 percent (which would have been pro-Biden if on the ballot and is now pro-Harris – whatever their flaws) and there is an implacable pro-Trump base of 46-47 percent.

America has come to a bad place. We are living in a transitory reality where there is no past and no future, just THE MOMENT. Politicians and their handlers care only about “winning” the day’s news cycle, and about topping the latest polls – all in order to raise more money to maintain their power.

An Aug. 5 TIPP poll had the race at 46/45 Harris, and 44/42/7/1/1 in a Harris/Trump/RFK
Jr./Stein/West race; a Morning Consult poll that same day had Harris up 48/44. An Aug. 4 CBS poll had it 50/49 Harris. This is all within the margin-of-error of +/-4. An Aug. 1 Daily Kos poll had it 49/45 Harris, Rasmussen at 49/49 and a July 31 Economist/YouGov poll had it 46/44 Harris with Kennedy collapsing to 3 percent and the others under one percent.

This will persist. With Biden running, RFK Jr. was pulling some anti-Trump votes from the Democrats. Not anymore. No vote can be wasted. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump in every national poll throughout the entire campaign and the final result was a 65,853,514/62,984,828 popular vote win, a breakout of 48.2/46.7 percent. But that mattered not. The electoral vote (EVs) was 304/227 Trump.

That was because Trump won MI (16 EVs) by 10,704 votes, PA (20) by 44,292, WI (10) by 22,748 and AZ (11) by 91,234. That’s 168,978 votes out of 128.8 million and 57 EVs. Minus just three of those states (MI, PA, WI) with 46 EVs would have put Trump at 258, or 12 short of 270. Trump also won GA (16) by 211,141, NC (15) by 173,315 and lost NV (6) by 27,202.

In 2020 (see chart) Trump lost AZ by 10,457, PA by 80,555, MI by 154,188, GA by 11,779, WI by 20,682 – all won by him in 2016 -- and NV by 38,596. That’s a shift of 277,661 votes and a loss of 71 EVs.

Biden-Harris led every poll throughout 2020 and according to an average compiled by Wikipedia the margin was 51.4/43.6 percent. The actual result was 81,283,501/74,223,475, a breakout of 51.3/46.8 percent.

Note that Trump over-performed his poll average by 3.1 points, suggesting that some being polled lied about their choice. So Trump may be at or over 50 percent now. A July 30 Harvard-Harris poll had Trump up 52/48 while Reuters had Trump losing 42/43 and Morning Consult by 46/47.

It doesn’t matter.

The polls to monitor are in the battleground states, but are muddled. An Aug.2 Trefalgar poll
Had Trump up 49/47 in GA, but a PPP poll had him losing 47/49. That poll had Trump losing PA 47/48 but a July 31 Bloomberg poll had him up 50/46. All that matters is the result in those 6 key states.

FORGETABILITY FACTOR: Amid America’s tumult and turmoil – as I write this the stock market just collapsed by 1,000 points. And the media exults in erasing an adverse narrative. The July 13 rump assassination attempt dims by the day. Secret Service incompetence is ignored. Joe Biden’s July 21 exit is irrelevant, as is Biden. The Trump trials have fizzled. The Oct. 7 Hamas massacre of 1,200 Jews is now a vague myth. Nobody thinks about Afghanistan. Inflation is “coming down,” crows Biden-Harris, meaning only a 2.5 percent rise per month, far less than 2022’s 9 percent but prices aren’t COMING DOWN. They are simply rising slower. The prime is still at 5/5.5 percent, so the mortgage/housing market stinks.

The vast majority of voters are short attention/low-information. Their lives consume them 24/7.
So the Harris strategy is to deflect and redirect. She will ignore her tie to Biden-Harris. She will make 2024 about personality, not policy. She will relentlessly demonize the scowling Trump, contrasting her so-called charm and exuberance and stifling her cackling. She will be the candidate of CHANGE. And she will dodge virtually ALL of her past radical Leftist policy positions and sound bites.

RECREATE AND RE-DEFINE: Harris’s campaign – but not her verbally – claims she has EVOLVED, which means “to develop thoughts that change over time.” She is no longer against fracking, no longer for single-pay healthcare (i.e., abolishing private insurance) nor Medicare for all and against mandatory gun buy-backs. Candidates lie to win. Woodrow Wilson in 1916 famously promised American mothers to “keep your sons out of war.” After winning, just months later in 1917 Wilson declared war on Germany. Many of our boys had to go.

Richard Nixon said he had a “secret plan” to end the Vietnam War in 1968; it ended in 1973. And all we got that footage of choppers set to rock music.

And George Bush II’s claims that Iraq had WMDs (weapons-of-mass-destruction) proved false. What one says is only held to account in a court of law, while under oath, under sanction of perjury. Harris was wishy washy about Biden’s cognitive decline; she opposes school choice, off-shore drilling, closing the border, deporting any migrants, supports electric vehicles instead of gas ones, and supports slavery reparations, sanctuary cities, re-inventing ICE, rent control, free child care, abortion, no cash bail, total student loan forgiveness, prosecution of retail theft over a certain amount, packing the Supreme Court and abolishing the Electoral College. And, of course, Harris wants an Israeli-Gaza “ceasefire” even before Hamas is eradicated and Israel’s security assured.

The next president will be either hamstrung or empowered by whichever party controls Congress. A Trump presidency would be impotent without a Republican-controlled Senate and House.

There are ten critical senate races – in WV, MT, OH, PA, MI, AZ, NV, WI (all Ds) and FL and TX (both Rs). WV and MT are gone, and OH and NV toss-ups, but Harris boosts the other Dems. Trump will win big in TX and FL. At worst, the next Senate will be 51R-49D. If Harris wins it will be gridlock relative to congressional action, but executive orders will ensure that Harris is Biden’s second term.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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