July 24, 2024
ALL-FEMALE DEMOCRATIC TICKET IS BEST CHANCE TO BEAT TRUMP-VANCE
In a perfect world, Democratic strategists at their upcoming national convention in Chicago, beginning Aug. 19, would most likely be pondering – but carefully not uttering – an all-female ticket – Kamala Harris for president and another woman for VP – a chance to defeat Trump/Vance, an all-male ticket. Ya know, “You go girl” vs “You’re the man.” But that’s unlikely.
There is absolutely no doubt that Harris will be the Democrats’ pick. The Democratic establishment, desperate to beat Trump, has coalesced behind her. The 3,905 elected Biden convention delegates, now “free agents” who under party rules can “vote their conscience,” were picked by the state parties for their proven party loyalty. They will vote their self-interest and self-protection, which means voting like they’re told. They are thinking about their future. Which means Kamala.
Besides, no alternative has stepped forward. Not governors Gavin Newsom (CA), Gretchen Whitmer (MI) or JB Pritzker (IL). They want to be president ASAP. But they don’t want to antagonize the party base, particularly Black leaders, by trying to thwart the election of a Black/Asian-Indian woman who epitomizes the party’s identity politics and DEI obsession.
They’re all focused on 2028, based on the presumption of a Trump-Vance triumph. If Harris wins that’s moot. If elected, Harris, age 59, would be the Democrats’ 2028 nominee, regardless of how disastrous her term (and it will be). And her VP, if still VP, would have a leg-up in 2032 – a long, long time away. So for the BIG THREE Nov. 5 could be THE END.
There is also a very thorny issue: In order to qualify for the Ohio ballot each party must submit their presidential ticket by Aug. 5, which is 14 days before the Aug. 19 convention. BUT FOR the June 27 debate debacle, the ticket would be Biden/Harris and the delegates would have voted virtually before Aug. 5. They still must do so, nominate Harris and her VP pick before that date.
That means Harris must make that pick real quick. There are two trains of thought. First, that Harris make a SAFE choice – namely: a White guy. In the mix are governors Andy Beschear (KY), Josh Shapiro (PA) and Roy Cooper (NC) and senator Mark Kelly (AZ). All are bland, minimally charismatic and relatively moderate for a Democrat. Shapiro is Jewish and strongly pro-Israel, which Harris is not.
They’re all replicas of Tim Kaine in 2016 with Hillary Clinton: They don’t bring much but they do no harm, and keep the focus on the presidential candidate. Shapiro is the best pick.
Second, in a perfect world, there are those who want a HISTORIC choice – namely: two women on the ticket. That would mean a White woman, and such a pick would galvanize the party’s progressives. A whole lot of Baby Boomer women, now in their 70s, wanted a woman president in their lifetimes. They were bitterly disappointed with the 2016 outcome. 2024 is their second, maybe last chance. Clock is ticking.
The blockbuster pick would be Hillary Clinton, majestically rising from the political graveyard.
But she is age 76 and would make awkward hammering Trump for his age, 78. So in a perfect world, the obvious pick is Whitmer, Michigan’s governor since 2019 and a big feminist. A Harris/Whitmer ticket would carry Michigan .
Some of the media is already gushing about Harris, who had negligible impact on any policy as VP, and has called for a Gaza ceasefire. But “accomplishments” matter not. What does matter are (1) defeating Trump so as to (2) perpetuate Biden’s Leftist policies (especially giving illegal migrants citizenship so they can vote) and (3) solidify identity politics based on race and gender as the future of America. Biden got dumped because he could not be trusted to beat Trump.
Can Harris do it? The campaign had $96 million on-hand on June 30. It raised $55 million on July 20-21. Had Biden stayed Nov. 5 would have been a referendum on Biden’s fitness, and issues like the economy, border, inflation. With Harris in it’s now a CHOICE. Harris will NOT run as the Biden-Harris Administration candidate. She will run as the STOP TRUMP candidate.
Polling prior to Joe Biden’s July 21 withdrawal had Trump beating Biden-Harris in all seven battleground states – AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI, which have a cumulative 93 electoral votes (EVs). Biden lost only NC in 2020. The EV was 306-232; the winner needs 270. To win Trump must carry all his 2020 states plus NC, NV, GA and AZ (49 EVs), where his is currently ahead beyond the margin-of-error, which is 4 points. That puts him at 265, just 5 short. That leaves MI, PA, and MI (44 EVs). Winning just one of the 3 puts Trump in the White House again. The 2016 EV was 304/227.
It’s the reverse for Biden/Harris. They absolutely require PA/MI/WI in addition to their other 2020 states, which cast 229 EVs if they win those states they are at 273, 3 EVs up and they win.
Polling before Biden’s July 21 bail (which will henceforth be categorized as BB and AB, meaning Before Biden and After Biden) showed a consistent Trump lead, albeit a narrow one.
RealClear Politics, a Website which publishes written commentary across the spectrum and new polling data has a “RCP Average” (see chart) of all polls over a certain time frame.
From 6/28 to 7/16 RCP had Trump’s average over Harris (as well as Biden) at plus 1.7. In a 2-way race CBS had it 51/48 Trump; Reuters/Ipsos had it tied 44/44; Forbes/HarrisX had it 52/48 Trump;
Morning Consult had it 46/45 Trump; Fox had it 49/48 Trump; NBC had it 47/45 Trump; Emerson College had it at a sizeable 49/43 Trump; CNN had it at 47/45 Trump, but NPR/Marist and ABC/Washington Post had Harris up 50/49 and 49/47, respectively. This was after the debate fiasco but before the 7/13 assassination attempt. The numbers didn’t budge much from May.
What did budge, and budge downwardly, were Robert Kennedy Jr.’s numbers. In May/June he was over 10 percent; now he’s at 6-7 and falling. No anti-Trump Democrat will waste their vote on RFK Jr.
This pretty much disproves, at least in 2024, the Tipping-Point theory. It posits that there is a point where the prevailing narrative permanently changes … that the winner becomes apparent. Before 6/27 the narrative was that Biden was cognitively fit and could serve his next term, that Trump was a MAGA “extremist” and convicted felon, that only Biden could beat him and “save democracy.” The debate exploded that narrative, but the polls changed little though Trump was still ahead.
The next narrative was that Biden was feeble, frail and very old – and that a Trump win was inevitable, panicking Democrats. The Trump assassination attempt and RNC enhanced that narrative, portraying a “kinder, gentler” more sympathetic Trump. Biden busted that on July 21. Trump wanted to run against Biden because there would be an enthusiasm deficiency among Democrats. Not anymore.
Pollsters have a 90-Day Rule. It says that if a candidate is ahead and maintains that lead for 90 days then that candidate is going to win. Trump has been up very narrowly nationwide, but comfortably in 4 of the 7 Battleground states for more than 90 days – and Nov. 5 is just over 90 days away.
Harris has a very brief time to reverse this trend.
She needs to be unburdened by what has come before.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
This column was published in Nadig Newspapers. If you, a friend or a colleague wish to be added to Russ's BUDDY LIST, and be emailed his column every Wednesday morning, email webmaster Joe Czech at Joe@Nadignewspapers.com