June 5, 2024
2023-24 FUNDRAISING NUGGETS BOTH ENLIGHTENING, DISGUSTING
It is said that there are five stages of grief: Anger, Denial, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. In politics there is only one stage of grief, and that is losing. And the certain way to avoid that plight is to raise and stockpile loads of campaign cash.
As detailed in the chart, those who have the bucks are those who win, and in Illinois they’re all Democrats. What really sticks out is the March 19 county state’s attorney Democratic primary, in which Eileen O’Neill Burke, the ex-Appellate Court justice, raised $3,768,857 and defeated slated Clayton Harris II by 1,571 votes. She outspent Harris by 2.4 million, and saturated the airwaves and social media. Although Harris has plenty of in-kind party support. Money matters.
Another glare-spot was the 20th District state senate primary (D), where Senate president Don Harmon spent $1,947,454 to nominate appointed incumbent Natalie Toro in a near Northwest Side Latino-majority district – and she LOST. Money didn’t matter, except to the Senate’s 39 other Democrats. Here’s why: The Democrats hold a 40D-19R majority in the chamber and elected Don Harmon, a lawyer from Oak Park, as president in 2021. His promise to the caucus, where many wanted Kimberly Lightford, was “I will protect you.”
In other words, he would raise and spend whatever it took to keep them in office. And they, of course, would vote like they were told. And Harmon would deliver his majority in accordance with what his donors demanded. As of June 1 Harmon had $12,731,318 in his own account and another $2,436,662 in Illinois Senate Democratic Fund, which he controls, for a total of $15,167,580. By contrast, the Senate Republicans had just $1,524,503. That’s a 10-to-1 edge.
Why would any self-interested donor give any money to any Republican when they are so inconsequential? Add that JB for Governor has $7,680,301 and DPI (state party) has $1,183,010. So the odds of any Republican north of Springfield beating a Democratic senator are non-existent.
Toro was a former teacher appointed in 2023 to Cristina Pacione-Zayas’s vacancy. Graciela Guzman is a Woke/Left former teacher and Pacione-Zayas‘s former chief-of-staff. Dave Nayak is a wealthy doctor/farmer. The 20th contains about 217,000 people, and just 26,348 of them voted in the March 19 primary. Harmon’s job was to PROTECT Toro.
He assaulted every mailbox and digital inbox in the district with at least 3 mailers a week and several e-mails per day, with the same crap rehashed repeatedly. And he failed. Guzman spent $399,430 a third from CTU and SEIU, and Nayak $745,075, $740,000 of that from his own pocket. The vote was 13,521/7,701/3,973, with Nayak last and Guzman getting 51.3 percent.
Guzman had a ground game and was backed by Congresswoman Delia Ramirez (D-3) and Socialist alderpersons Carlos Ramirez-Rosa and Rosanna Rodriguez Sanchez.
Harmon will have a dissenter in his caucus, but he tried. It cost him $1,806,200, or $235 per Toro vote,.He could afford it. Just soak future donors for more. Harmon protected his job. Here are a few other nuggets
ASSESSOR: LET’S GIVE KAEGI SOME RESPECT. Incumbent Fritz Kaegi (D) ran for the post in 2018 against pay-to-play Joe Berrios who viewed the office as a campaign cash register. No good deed, like a reduction in a property’s assessed valuation, went uncompensated. Allegations of a quid-pro-quo policy was rampant, a practice which Berrios allegedly exercised at the Board of Review (BOR), which handled appeals of assessed valuations (AVs). Kaegi pledged to take no money from lawyers or big property owners. Kaegi beat Berrios 327,769/243,425 in the primary. And he didn’t lie.
The pandemic complicated matters. Downtown rental vacancies soared. Construction evaporated. Kaegi had begun to hike AVs on commercial properties (now under-valued) and couldn’t lower them quickly enough on residential properties (now over valued).
In 2022 Kaegi was challenged by MWRD president Kari Steele, who had major trade union support. They wanted lowered Loop AVs to spur construction. The heavy-equipment Operating Engineers Local 150 gave her $1 million.
The primary was tight, but Kaegi won 258,848-222,371, with 52 percent. But it cost Kaegi $4,145,000, the amount he loaned his campaign. Steele is running for (and will win) MWRD re-election this year and she wants a 2026 rematch.
Some African-American politicians are upset that a White woman will be state’s attorney (replacing Kim Foxx) and they want a trade-off by making a Black woman assessor. Kaegi also infuriated them by backing a foe (who lost) against BOR commissioner Larry Rogers. Kaegi has a paltry $69,472 on-hand. Does he want to pony-up another $4.5 million to keep the job?
45TH WARD: Alderman Jim Gardiner had a rough patch in 2021-22 in a texting controversy but has weathered the storm. He beat Megan Mathias 9,488-8,214 in the 2023 runoff, getting 53.6 percent. And he forswore running for committeeman (D) again, avoiding the risk of a loss. The new occupant, Michael Rabbitt, an ally of state Representative Lindsey LaPointe D-19), is more interested in running for state rep against Mike Kelly (D-15) in 2026. Rabbitt had $2,689 on-hand while Kelly had $64,891.
Gardiner has $166,504 on-hand and is raising cash at a 6K-a-month clip, which is respectable. Mathias is bailing. According to her first quarter D-2 report she has zeroed-out her account, taking the $15,874 balance as repayment toward her $30,000 loan; also, she has not moved from her Old Irving residence, which was remapped into the 30th Ward.
So that could set up a battle between Gardiner and LaPointe for alderman in 2027, but that’s just me thinking out loud. LaPointe has $208,802 on-hand, is unopposed this year, and is raising cash at a 10K-per month clip. LaPointe is ambitious and the city council would be a step up.
COMFORT CUSHION: Departing office, even voluntarily, may be psychologically painful. No more power. No more recognition, perks and prestige. But taking a bunch of money soothes the pain. Ed Burke quit as alderman in 2023 but took his $7,845,430 cash with him, recently using 800K for attorney fees for his pending trial. Ex-speaker Mike Madigan took $6,278,614. Ex state Rep. John D’Amico took $291,431, and former Senator John Mulroe (now a judge) took $354,964 It’s entirely legal. They just can’t spend the money directly on themselves..
BEST AND GETTING BETTER: Look at the cash numbers for Ram Villivalam, Sam Nugent and Debra Silverstein. They are on a tear. Commissioners Degnen and Gainer are also raking it in.
Robust fund-raising deters robust opposition. House Speaker Chris Welch (D), with $8,947,204 on-hand, will step in if less-than-robust Mike Kelly or Kevin Olickal are primaried. Money matters.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
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