May 15, 2024
MENDACITY, POLARIZATION HAVE BECOME THE NEW U.S. POLITICAL NORM

Mendacity is defined as speaking untruthfully, lying and/or uttering falsehoods.

Mendacity is the new norm in American politics. Polarization is defined as a separation of people into  diametrically opposed, antagonistic groups with rigid viewpoints who detest and despise those who disagree with them. Polarization is also the new norm in American politics.

Let’s take a look at some of this mendacity.

Those on the Far Left so revile those on the Far Right, who are perceived as a Threat-to-Democracy, that it is perfectly alright to lie and spout disinformation so as to block them from gaining power, which means they lose power. That goal thereby justifies their mendacity.

Likewise, those on the Right view their Leftist brethren as threats to the American way of life and to Judeo-Christian culture and as election thieves.  

The whole focus of politics has transitioned from attempting to persuade voters of the rightness of their respective viewpoints to the manipulating  and deceiving of voters through lies.

For example, last week Biden in a CNN interview said inflation was 9 percent in Jan. 2021 when he took office. That is an absolute lie, but ya know, it’s Joe so he gets a pass because even he doesn’t know what year it is. It was 1.4 percent. He said he is reducing inflation.

What he has done, after huge price surges in 2021, 2022 and 2023, is bring the monthly hike down to 3 percent. But the cost of basic foodstuffs, gas, rent, electricity and autos has increased 15-20 percent since 2021. He is NOT rolling-back 2024 costs to 2021 levels. And let me guess, the U.S. economy is the “best in the world”? And those anti-Semitic, pro-terrorist Hamas protests are acceptable “free speech?” Can you sense my sarcasm?

As I type this column I hear Bernie Sanders in the background mumbling about Israel “violating International Law and American Law” by bombing and invading Rafah.

Sanders should be condemning Hamas’ Oct. 7 war crimes, not Israeli retribution.

And shame on Biden, who lies when he says the U.S. commitment to Israel’s survival is “ironclad” and then aborts weapons’ shipments needed to take Rafah with minimal civilian casualties.

And then there’s abortion, where many states have implemented highly restrictive laws. Why is the government involved in the first place? That is a personal choice, isn’t it? And choices have consequences.

What the Dobbs decision did is abolish Roe. vs. Wade as a nationwide court-ordered abortion-on-demand, with restrictions allowed in the later months.  They made it a STATE’S RIGHTS proposition wherein each state’s legislature and governor determine whether abortion will have any restriction in their state, including length of  term. That’s called “representative democracy.” But not by those on the Left.

The mutual hypocrisy is that the Far Right wants states to be able to ban abortions “because they are murder” but wants the feds to protect the 2nd Amendment while the Left wants states to be able to ban guns but the feds to protect abortion rights.

Nevertheless, expect Democrats to proclaim that Trump/Republicans will “take away” everybody’s “reproductive rights” if they win.

We can’t overlook the open Southern border and the 10 million asylum-seekers who have crossed since Biden took office. Biden has been president for roughly 1,220 days, so that calculates to 8,200 illegal migrant crossings per day. The lie is that this is the Republicans’ fault, since they now control the U.S. House and didn’t pass immigration reform.

Never mind that Democrats controlled both chambers during 2021-22 and did nothing. Where was Nancy Pelosi? And the so-called bi-partisan “compromise” of late 2023, which House Republicans rejected, capped the “newcomers” at 7,000 per day (2.5 million per year), plus 500,000 gotaways. Many came here to work and found no work.

And how goes those 8 million asylum court hearings? Don’t the newcomers need to prove they suffered political or religious persecution by their oppressive government? They’re never going back.

They’re not guests or visitors. Many are unemployed and they are not paying taxes since they can’t get work permits. The border needs to be closed … and Biden won’t do it.  

And finally there’s the “Whining Duo of presidential Losers” – Trump and Hillary Clinton. Trump whines and peddles the “Big Lie” about 2020 “stolen’ votes in GA, AZ, NV, and Clinton whines about 2016 “Russian collusion” and interference, which has been debunked as false. My advice: Get over it.

The 2024 path to victory will be to deluge low-information, non-polarized voters with mounds of disinformation and misinformation thereby causing enough mental fatigue so that they believe the crap that they hear the most or hear last.

The 2020  Biden-Trump result was 81,283,501-74,773,975, a breakout of 51.3-46.9 percent in a 155 million turnout. The Libertarian got 1.2 and the Green 0.3 percent. Biden flipped WI, MI, GA, PA, AZ. The 2020 electoral vote (EV) was 306-232.

The 2016 Clinton-Trump result was 65,853,516-62,984,825, a margin of 2,868,691 votes, a breakout of 48.7-46.1 percent in a 128 million turnout. The Libertarian got 3.3 and Green Jill Stein got 1.1       percent.  Note that the 3rd Party vote declined from 4.4 percent in 2016 to 2 percent in 2020.

The vote was 81,283,501-74,223,975. Overall turnout increased by 27 million, Biden up 16 million over Clinton, and Trump by 12 million over 2016. The EV was 304-227. The conclusion is that Trump’s ideological base is 46-47 percent and that Biden expanded in 2020 the Democratic base by 2.5 percent – at the expense of 3rd Party candidates.

RFK Jr. is polling around 7-8 percent. Biden’s job approval is negative 15-18 percent, in the range of 38-40 (approve) to 56-58 (disapprove). Those are horrific numbers for an incumbent this close to Nov. 5. Biden’s core base, however, is consistently in the low 40s in a 3-way race, mid-40s in a 2-way.

The question is how RFK’s voters will break in lower-ballot races, particularly for senator. Trump, if victorious, needs Republican control of both chambers, and needs at a minimum to flip seats in WV, MT, OH, and conceivably in MI, NV, AZ, MD, WI and PA.

WEST  VIRGINIA: Trump got 68.5 in 2016 and 68.6 in 2020, majorities of near 300,000. Governor Jim Justice will win Joe Manchin’s seat.

MONTANA: Trump won by 56.2 and 56.5, with majorities over 100,000 in each cycle. Senator Jon Tester (D) was re-elected to a third term with 50 percent in 2018 and has 12 million on-hand. The Republican is businessman and ex-Navy Seal Tim Sheehy. Polls show them both around 46 percent. To win, Tester needs at least 50,000 Trumpsters to vote for him. Won’t happen.

OHIO: Trump won this Republican-trending state by 52.7 and 53.3 percent with majorities of  about 480,000. Like Tester, Sherrod Brown (D) is finishing his third term; he won with 53 percent in 2018. The Republican is pro-Trump car dealer Bernie Moreno, who won a solid upset in the primary. Polls show the race essentially tied. Brown needs 250,000 Trump voters to ditch Moreno. Won’t happen.

NEVADA: Trump lost the state twice, with 45.5 and 47.7 percent, his deficit about 30,000. Polls show him up by over 10 points this time. Senator Jacky Rosen (D) won with just 50 percent in 2018 and has not entrenched herself. Her opponent is ex-Army Captain Sam Brown (R). Polls show Rosen up by 2-3  points. If Trump wins by over 25,000, Brown does too.

MICHIGAN: Trump won 47.5-47.2 in 2016, a margin of 11,000, but lost 50.6-47.8 in 2020, a margin of 16,000. Biden-Harris’s EV push does not enthuse UAW RANK-AND-FILE. Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) is running slightly ahead of ex-congressman Mike Rogers (R); the latest poll has it 42-40 for this open seat. If Trump wins by over 25,000, Rogers does too.

ARIZONA: The state is impacted by the border crisis, but congressman Ruben Gallego (D), a progressive who supports open borders is favored over Kari Lake (R), a pro-Trump election denier who lost for governor in 2022 (and then denied it and sued). Abortion seems to be more salient than immigration. Trump won with 48.4 and then lost with 49.1. A Trump-Lake win is possible, but not quite probable.

Despite all his legal baggage, Trump’s base is more solid than Biden’s – and getting more so.

And that ain’t no lie.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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