April 24, 2024
AS CALIFORNIA GOES, SO GOES AMERICA -- OR MAYBE NOT, PLUS FUBAR REIGNS IN SCHOOL BOARD RACES

Bellwethers are utterly obsolete, if not totally absurd. This column is not about doorbells, church bells or Christmas sleigh bells. It’s about spotting political trends. Way back in the 1930s (and that was a bit before I started writing this column), President Franklin Roosevelt’s political strategist James Farley remarked after the 1936 election that “as goes Maine, so goes Vermont.”

Maine used to hold its elections in September, so it was deemed a bellwether and harbinger of the November result. In 1936 FDR beat the hapless Kansas governor Alfred Landon (R) 523-8, winning every state EXCEPT hardcore Republican Maine and Vermont. Now Vermont is hardcore D.

But consider California, admitted to the Union in 1850. In the 43 elections since, a Republican won for president 22 times to a Democrat’s 19 (with an “other” twice). Of those 43 contests, CA voted for the winner 35 times. In the 19 elections since 1948 (see chart) CA voted for the winning Republicans seven of nine times and the winning Democrat seven of 10 times. The state also voted rather heavily for 3rd-party candidates in 1948, with 5.3 percent for Socialist Henry Wallace, in 1968, with 7.5 for segregationist George Wallace, and 21.4 and 10.7 for Ross Perot, respectively, in 1992 and 1996.

The state is a bellwether because it demonstrates the demographic fluidity of politics, with swings of up to one million from cycle-to-cycle, and an uptick of nearly 2.4 million from Hillary Clinton  (2016) to Joe Biden (2020). The last Republican to win a CA presidential race was George Bush in 1976 with 49.4 percent. In the last four races, 2020 back to 2008, the Republican has drawn, respectively, 34.3, 31.6 (Trump both times), 37.1 and 37 percent. There is no reason to suspect 2024 will be different. Biden won with 63.6 percent in 2020, getting 11,110,250 votes. The latest RealClear Politics CA average has Biden up 54.3-33.3 over Trump with RFK Jr. at near 12 percent. Kennedy is taking most of his votes from Biden’s base, but the Trump base is solid.

This is important because the Republicans’ tenuous U.S. House majority, now just 217-213, is in serious jeopardy. The CA delegation is currently 40D-12R. If Democrats are to retake the House on Nov. 5 they need to knock-off 2-3 CA Republicans. Topping their takeover list are incumbents Kevin Kiley of the 3rd District on the eastern Nevada boundary, John Duarte of the Fresno 13th, David Valadao of the Bakersfield 22nd, Mike Garcia of the Simi Valley (LA) 27th, Young Kim and Michelle Steel, both women from Orange County south of LA, and 32-year incumbent Ken Calvert for the 41st in the east Los Angeles suburbs. All won with under 55 percent in 2022.

A critical Republican takeover opportunity is in the open Irvine-area 45th District being vacated by Senate primary loser Katie Porter (D), who lost to congressman Adam Schiff 31.6-15.3 percent in the recent primary. Schiff, a 24-year incumbent from Burbank, is best-known as the House manager of the first Trump impeachment and for being censured for his role in the Russia collusion disinformation hoax. Nevertheless, he raised $31.5 million, to Porter’s $26.6, and astutely spent some of it to boost Republican Steve Garvey in the primary.

CA has an open primary with the top two finishers, regardless of party, advancing to the Nov. election. The expectation was that the two would be Schiff and Porter, who would spend another $15-20 million. The combined vote for those two, plus Oakland congresswoman Barbara Lee, was 56.7 percent. Garvey, a baseball icon who played for the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres back in the 1980s, was languishing in the low 20s, third behind Schiff and Porter.

So Schiff, in a brilliant stratagem, dumped a couple mil into TV ads boosting Garvey rather than attacking Porter. It worked. Garvey got 2,301,151 votes, almost identical to Schiff’s 2,304,829, and is in the runoff. The latest polling shows Schiff up 61-37 over Garvey, who will lose but at least negate any Trump down-ballot drag on congressional candidates. As goes CA, so goes the U.S. House.

TINKER, TINKER, MAKES A STINKER: The latest state legislative incarnation of the elected Chicago School Board (CSB) is somewhere between a SNAFU and FUBAR. Those acronyms are WWII military slang for Situation-Normal-All-(Expletive)ed-Up and (Expletive)ed-Up-Beyond-All-Repair. Just be patient. Springfield can be counted on to mess up everything.

I remember the late U.S. Rep. Henry Hyde reportedly saying that if God were to give the World an enema, he would insert in …well, you guess where.  The state capital is called “Springpatch” for a reason. The non-partisan CSB morphs from 20 mayor-appointed members to 10/10 elected/appointed this year to 20 all-elected in 2026. Even though nominating petitions are already on the street and due June 23, the process is still a work-in-progress and can be altered anytime.

Prior to March 25, the first day to circulate, legislators made the following changes: (1) 10 Districts were re-numbered into (a) and (b), and all 10 will elect one member in 2024 to a 2-year term, with the mayor appointing a second; (2) all districts would be split in 2026 with all 20 members (and president) elected to non-staggered 4-year terms, expiring in 2030, 2034, etc.; (3) the minimum ballot signatures were raised to 1,000; (4) runoffs were eliminated and a plurality wins; and (5) compensation remains unresolved. In fact, those on the CSB from 2025-26 WILL NOT get paid. Now that’s a taxpayer-friendly hiccup which won’t last for long. 60K is the likely amount.

Every board district will contain 5-and-a-half wards, with a population of 285,000 each. In the Northwest Side’s District One (meaning 1a and 1b) the dominant wards are the 41st, 45th, 38th and 39th, plus slices of the 50th, 33rd, 30th and 36th. Candidates already running and circulating are (1) Michelle Pierre, a pro-school choice advocate who can self-fund; (2) Jennifer Custer, whose husband is the political director of Local 150 of the Operating Engineers (IUOE), and will get plenty of trades union support; and (3) Chuck Hernandez, a recently-retired 27-year CPD detective who is the 38th Ward Republican committeeman will likely get the endorsement of aldermen Nick Sposato (38th), Anthony Napolitano (41st) and Jim Gardiner (45th).

The CTU teachers’ union has not yet fielded a candidate, but its United Working Families (UWF) ground game can get the signatures in a week. They will not be backing Pierre or Hernandez. The CSB election coincides with the Nov. 5 balloting, so Trump will be a big factor. Trump will amass 35-38 percent in the district, so a Trump/Hernandez tie-in would give him a plurality. But both Custer and Pierre will peel-off a lot of moderate-to-conservative working-class Democrats. Over half the district abhors Trump and will vote accordingly for CSB.

“It will take $200,000 to win” the contest, predicted John D’Amico, political director of Plumbers Local 130. Only the CTU has that kind of cash.

Note that the no-runoff CSB elections are now set for November of the non-presidential year election, just 4 months before the Chicago mayoral and aldermanic election. That makes it sort of a runway. Candidates can jump-start a campaign for alderman/mayor and get valuable visibility by running for CSB. And if any alderman becomes a thorn for the CTU (like opposing a new contract), the CTU will use that runway. The Chicago Board of Education will be totally politicized. And likely FUBAR.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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