April 3, 2024
BURKE BEATS HARRIS BY 1,556 VOTES: BLAME IT ON 390,000 DEM MIAs, CCDP INCOMPETENCE

It should have been easy for the “machine.” Instead, the Cook County Democratic primary for state’s attorney was a squeaker and a sweater, with Eileen O’Neill Burke beating the slated Clayton Harris III by an apparent margin of 1,556 votes. The unofficial vote as of March 31 was 264,289-262,733 in a 527,022 turnout.

Just 4 years ago turnout was 917,743 (see chart)  Foxx got 447,974 votes countywide, carried Chicago with 55.4 percent and 284,955 votes, the White progressives on the north Lakefront and North Shore flocked to Foxx. Yet 390,721 fewer Democrats voted on March 19. So what has changed since 2020? If the county Democrats could renominate Kim Foxx with 447,974 votes why was it so difficult to deliver 35 percent of the past Foxx vote to Harris this time?  

I said last month that unless many cops and firefighters pull a Democratic ballot, Harris would win 240,000-225,000, a margin of 15,000 in a 465,000 turnout. That didn’t happen.

The reasons are numerous and baffling. (1) The longstanding presumption in Chicago and county politics is that a low – and this year it was meager – turnout bolsters the “machine,” meaning the Democratic insiders who have money and manpower. The party apparatus knows who the “hard” Democrats are and controls them in various ways. When turnout surges it’s because of high-profile contests on the ballot, which spur independent, Far Left, special interest or Trumpster turnout. These are “soft” D’s and vote only occasionally.

There are 1,509,554 registered voters in Chicago (RVs) and 342,983, or 22.7 percent, took a Dem ballot on March 19, while 40,773 a Republican.  In the suburbs the RVs are 1,600,364 and 216,076 ballots cast, just 13.5 percent. Compared to 2020, the Democrat primary vote was down 211,438 from 554,421 and the Republican vote up from 21,557 to 40, 773. As an aside, this uptick in Republican voters was seen as detrimental to Burke, who unofficially was trying to persuade cops and firefighters to vote in the Dem primary but officially didn’t. FOP president John Catanzara suggested that cops vote in the primary for Burke and endorsed her; she rejected FOP support. “She needed that (Republican) vote,” said alderman Nick Sposato (38th). “It almost cost her” the election.

(3) There is a definite sense of exhaustion, of real fatigue among voters. The perception is that it will be perpetually SOS, meaning the same old (expletive) regardless of who gets elected. Disappointments like Johnson, Lightfoot, Foxx and Preckwinkle are now commonplace. Preckwinkle recently posted a tweet after Burke was declared the winner that she “looks forward to working with her.” “I know we share the goals of re-imagining our criminal justice system into one that is truly just, equitable, enhances public safety and represents the best interests of all Cook County residents,” Preckwinkle said. Burke said she looks forward to working with Toni as well. Foxx, a Preckwinkle protégé, let Preckwinkle regularly cut the hiring of ASAs (prosecutors) to close county budget gaps. This was part of Foxx’s “restorative justice” agenda. Burke claims she wants change in the office, but playing patsy with Toni is not an auspicious start. She’s already saying that it was “unfair” during the election to paint her as “very hard on crime.” She said this week in the Sun-Times “I want to be effective. That doesn’t mean we’re going to lock everybody up.”

(4) The Democrats’ message – fight Trump, guns and protect abortion – was hardly inspirational. To be sure, the CCDP slate won 20 of 22 offices on the ballot, but the messaging did not aid Harris and Dan (Pogo) Pogorzelski for MWRD. Each slatee was assessed 45K by the CCDP for 4 countywide mailers, sample ballots and digital and social media ads. Harris had about $960,000 in contributions since December of 2023. He has about $115,000 left. Burke had about $3 million in contributions since December of 2023. She has about $245,000 left.

The bland and boring Harris’s theme was “equity and justice,” a preposterous word salad which means justice shall be imposed equitably, a standard different from equally. The Safe-T Act codified no bail, so neither called for any repeal. Burke kind of avoided running as the tough-on-crime candidate, but she didn’t mind when people began to perceive it as such. She let 3 perceptions – that crime is rising, that prosecutions are falling and that jails are emptying – do the work. Burke won because she was less like Foxx than Harris.

One likely game-changer were two targeted Burke mailings to single-female households on the Lakefront and North Shore stressing her pro-abortion stance and promising to hire a staffer whose job would be to monitor anti-abortion groups and individuals and prosecute those who interfere with abortion clinics. Abortion rights are codified in IL, but pro-choicers are a key Democratic demographic. Burke probably picked-up 10-12,000 votes.

What trends can be discerned?  The most is that a cultural realignment has supplanted decades of racial polarization. As set forth in the chart, the core of Burke’s base is centered in the (1) outlying White wards (41/45/38/39/19/13) where she got, respectively, 83/69.8/69.4/63/68.4/75.8 percent, giving her 35,605 of her 264,289, or 14 percent. These wards delivered similar numbers for Paul Vallas in 2023, and will do likewise in 2027 against Johnson.

The next (2) least Woke/Left are the south Lakefront White wards (42/43/44), stretching from north Michigan’s Mag-Mile to Lincoln Park and south Lakeview. Their pro-Burke percentages, respectively, were 72.9/71.1/58. Property rights are paramount. Add the West Rogers Park 50th Ward, which has a large Orthodox Jewish population; it went 60.7 for Burke. Add these numbers to the Outlying 6, and Burke has 21 percent of her vote.

And then (3) there’s the suburbs, which went for Burke 110,362-95,010, a 53.7 percent win. Note that Harris got 68,009 fewer votes than Foxx (163,019). Burke won by 60/40 or better in Wheeling, Schaumburg, Palatine, Elk Grove, Norwood Park, Hanover, Maine and Barrington, townships which Republicans used win 20 years ago. Burke also won close to 60 percent in Niles, Northfield and New Trier. Only in Evanston and Oak Park, did Harris prevail: by 6,959-4,505 and 5,571-4,616, respectively. Add these numbers to the pot and Burke has 62 percent of her vote.

And (4) there’s more. In wards 11/1/2/32/34, which include Chinatown, Bridgeport, River North, South Loop and Wicker Park, Burke got 66.3/50.4/75.5/65/61.7, respectively. These are non-Woke/Left numbers.

And (5) lastly there are the conservative Latino Southwest Side wards (10/12/14/15/22/23/25), where many Mexican-Americans dominate, as well as many non-citizens.
Turnouts are anemic, as low as 1,836 in the 14th and 2,173 in the 22nd. Burke won those wards 61.3/54.3/54.4/52.3/47.5/73.3/55.6. This is supposed to be Chuy Garcia’s base – and he endorsed Harris.

So what’s left for the Left? (1) The 12 South Side Black Lakefront wards (3/4/5/6/7/8/9/16/17/18/20/21), which cast a total of 81,674 votes on March 19, giving Harris 70-79 percent in each. (2) The 5 West Side Black wards (24/27/28/29/37) all won by Harris 74.2/58.9/69.5/64.5/74.5, respectively.(3) The north Lakefront wards (40/46/48/49 and Ravenswood 47) are clogged with Woke/Leftists. Harris won the first 45.5/52.8/55.7/62.8 percent but lost the 47th with 49.6

The last bastion are the 6 north Latino wards (26/30/31/33/35/36), mostly Puerto Rican, with 3 having openly Socialist aldermen. Burke won the 31st with 55.8 and the 36th with 51.6, plus the 31st by 9 votes.

Harris almost won. But the fact that he didn’t proves Chicago is not yet on life-support.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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