March 27, 2024
BIGGEST "CHALLENGED UNDERPERFORMERS" (MEANING LOSERS) ARE JOHNSON, HARMON, COOK, TORO
It has been decreed by some that political analysts like me must cease-and-desist from being hurtful. Politicians are sensitive, they say. They’re not stupid or inept, and they’re not losers, just “underperformers,” they say. Now that the March 19 Democratic primary is history, here’s my analysis of the underperformers, formerly known as losers. 20TH DISTRICT STATE SENATOR: Don Harmon gets a Gold Star for being the “Squanderer of 2024.” If you spend a whole bunch of money you usually win in politics because voters quickly tune-out all rhetoric but remember that name that clogs their mailboxes, annoys them with digital ads and/or clutters broadcast, cable and social media. So Harmon, the IL Senate president, spent $2.2 million to elect appointed state senator Natalie Toro in a district with a population of 213,250, 90,000 registered voters (RVs), 6 major wards and a usual voter turnout of about 25,000 in 14,000 households – and still lost. In a turnout of 24,371 on March 19 Toro got 7,270 votes to progressive Graciela Guzman’s 12,312, a solid 50.5 percent. Guzman’s moneybag was the CTU, which spent over $1.2 million. 45TH WARD: GARDINER/BURKE AVOIDANCE: To avoid? Or not to avoid? That was the question in the 45th Ward’s Democratic committeeperson race. Joe Cook, an MWRD attorney, avoided endorsing state’s attorney candidate Eileen O’Neill Burke, who got 70.1 percent in the ward (6,021 votes), and avoided seeking the endorsement of alderman Jim Gardiner, who was willing to give it. Gardiner won the post 5,557-5,267 in 2020 in a 10,826 turnout. The unofficial 2024 vote is 4,467-3,864 in an 8,331 turnout, down 2,655, or 20 percent. “That was a major reason why I lost,” said Cook, who conceded March 25. “I had a strategy,” Cook said. Trouble is the Leftists have a movement. Rabbitt’s 603-vote win equates to an 8-point spread – 54-46 percent. Of the ward’s 29 precincts, Rabbitt won 19, two with over 70 percent, 10 with over 60 and 7 with 50-59. Cook’s percent breakouts were 1, 3 and 6. He swept Edgebrook/Wildwood, his home base, and won 5 north Gladstone precincts. BRING CHICAGO HOME: Just when you think Chicago is really in the pits, Chicago voters do something really intelligent – like rejecting Mayor Brandon Johnson’s binding referendum to force the council to raise the transfer tax on real estate sales over $1 million. That affects multi-unit and commercial properties more than homes. The $100 million in new revenue was going to be used to “combat homelessness,” promised Johnson. Yeah, give me the money first, and then I’ll tell you what the plan is. Voters smelled through that. As of March 25 the Burke-Harris vote was 260,873-258,910. Amazing how Democrats find those late-mailed ballots. Full Article...
March 20, 2024
NO ARTICLE THIS WEEK
March 13, 2024
2024'S TWO WORST CAMPAIGNS -- 45TH WARD COMMITTEEPERSON (D) AND STATE'S ATTORNEY (D)
Politicians often say that one should never overestimate the intelligence of voters. History proves that. Voters often say that one should never underestimate the stupidity of politicians. History also proves that. For me it’s always a joy before an election to write about the stupidest candidates or politicians. So here’s a rundown of 2024’s “Stupidest Campaigns” – as exemplified by those being badly run, poorly strategized and messaged, unfocused and doomed from the start. Those not covered here will be post-election. But John Catanzara, the president of the Fraternal Order of Police, recently and inadvertently came to the rescue of Harris. 45TH WARD COMMITTEEPERSON (D): The two most popular politicians in the ward are state Representative Lindsey LaPointe (D-19) and Alderman Jim Gardiner (45th). The least-popular are, paradoxically, Gardiner, plus ex-alderman John Arena (who got beat by Gardiner in 2019), and 2023 aldermanic loser Megan Mathias. Gardiner was elected committeeman (D) 5,554-5,267 in 2020. But the ward’s real benchmarks are Pat O’Brien’s (R) 2020 13,275 votes for state’s attorney (51.1 percent) and Paul Vallas’s 2023 12,244 votes for mayor (68.7percent). That is the Right’s high and the 10,535/5,583 for Kim Foxx/Brandon Johnson the Left’s basement low. Gardiner got 7,578 in 2019, when he defeated Arena, 5,559 in 2020 when he beat Ellen Hill by 292 votes, and 9,488 in the 2023 runoff. That’s an average of 7,541 votes. Gardiner’s 2020 fall-off of 2,000 was from Republicans not voting in a Dem primary. That will recur in 2024. Cook won’t win without Republican crossovers. Arena got 6,083 in the 2011 runoff, 7,263 in the 2015 runoff and 5,388 in 2019, and Mathias 8,214 in the 2023 runoff, an average of 6,737 outright Bernie Sanders got 7,457 in the 2016 presidential primary; and LaPointe, in her contested 2020 and 2022 state rep primaries got, respectively, 3,432 and 5,293 votes in the ward. That’s an overall Leftist base of about 6,300 and it will deliver for Rabbitt. Full Article...
March 6, 2024
LATINA COURT CLERK MARTINEZ BEING PURGED BY PRECKWINKLE, DEMOCRATS
It is said that no good deed goes unpunished and Iris Martinez, the Clerk of Circuit Court nominated in the 2020 primary (D) with 31.3 percent, has discovered that to her chagrin. She replaced Dorothy Brown, who let the office decline into a dysfunctional morass during her 20-year tenure. Anyone with a pulse and some legal knowledge could have done better, and Martinez did. For her good deed Martinez got dumped by the Democrats last August. “They dumped me because I beat them,” said Martinez, claiming county party chair Toni Preckwinkle and state senator Rob Martwick (D-10) orchestrated the purge. Another compelling factor, she said, was her slate of 5 females in the 2022 primary (D). “I want more women and Latinas in politics.” THE NEW DEMOCRATIC IDENTITY PRONOUN: LATINO MEN NOW RANK WITH WHITE MEN. The 2024 Political Priority Power Rankings are in, and Democrats’ slating and appointing options are as follows. Whether you like it or not, identity politics is alive and well in the county. Aside from checking all the boxes such as LGBTQ, female and non-White, the old way of doing things is over. Also, if it is a direct choice between a man and woman, the guy always gets a go-to-the-end-of-the-line card. Any well-to-do pro-Democratic ethnic groups who chip in 100K from time to time also check the boxes. The only box a candidate needs to fill in is “How much donated lately?” remember, no money, no slating, no box. Jewish Democrats, once a bedrock part of the party coalition, used to get a third of the county judgeships, with Irish the rest. That era is long gone. Of the 22 slated Democrats on the March 19 primary ballot, only one is Jewish. (9) Latinos and Latinas seem like they are galloping downward politically. Exhibits A and B are Iris Martinez and Jesse Reyes. Martinez was dumped as Clerk of Court, and Reyes was rejected at 2024 slating for the vacant IL Supreme Court 1st District vacancy for Joy Cunningham, an Appellate Court justice like Reyes. Full Article...
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