February 23, 2023
RUSS STEWART'S FEB. 28 ELECTION PREDICTIONS
February 22, 2023
GARDINER'S RE-ELECTION DEPENDS ON FOES' SINGLE DIGITS; LIGHTFOOT WILL BE 4TH OR 5TH
The 45th Ward aldermanic race is all about digits. I don’t mean fingers (or even middle fingers) or spreadsheets. I mean who has double-digits and who has got single-digits. In pollster jargon, that means who is or is not getting less than 10 percent of the vote. Here’s my prediction: Alderman Jim Gardiner is going to win on Feb. 28 with 53 percent of the vote because four of his five opponents – James Suh, Susanna Ernst, Marija Tomic and Ana Santoyo – are mired collectively around 10-14 percent, and each appears to be at 3 to 4 percent. The only breakout contender is Megan Mathias, and she has hit her ceiling of 30-33 percent. The math is elemental: To force Gardiner into the April 4 runoff the five aspirants need to amass a total of 8,000 votes, being slightly more than 50 percent. MAYORAL WRAP-UP: At some point during the 2023 campaign there was some doubt that Mayor Lori Lightfoot would make the runoff, meaning NOT finishing first or second by NOT getting more than 100,000 votes on Feb. 28. Not anymore. The only suspense is whether she will finish 4th or 5th in the 9-candidate contest. A very large majority of Chicagoans want Lightfoot gone. That will soon occur. For a Chicago mayor to struggle to get 15 percent is truly pathetic. A chart of 45th Ward results is attached. Full Article...
February 15, 2023
38TH WARD ALDERMANIC RACE IS ALL ABOUT "MONEY, MONEY, MONEY"
“Money, money, money, money. Mon-eey.” Those were the lyrics from an O’Jays song “For the Love of Money.” But those words also epitomize and encapsulate 2023’s 38th Ward aldermanic race. First, who’s got the money (or not)? Second, where are they getting the money? And that includes both pensions and donations. And third, how are they spending the money (or not)? The candidates are 3-term incumbent Nick Sposato, who has 2 opponents – Ed Bannon and Cynthia Santos – of some consequence and two opponents – Bruce Randazzo and Franco Reyes – of no consequence. This column usually makes predictions at its conclusion, but I will make an exception for this race: Sposato is going to win with a margin in the 58-60 percent range. He may out-perform Pat O’Brien (R), who got 60.3 percent in the ward in 2020 against state’s attorney Kim Foxx (D). The IPCB was created by state statute and its duties enumerated by 35 ILCS of the Administrative Code, which is to hear appeals from final decisions by state agencies regarding penalties for alleged polluters. Its five members are not elected and not political. They meet twice per month. So how can Santos run for alderman and not quit or take a leave-of-absence? “I don’t campaign on work time,” she said.Sposato will get a majority in 22. Full Article...
February 8, 2023
KIM FOXX IS OUT-THE-DOOR IN 2024, BUT LIGHTFOOT WILL EXIT FIRST
It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx may not seek a third term in 2024, according to some Democratic Party sources. If that does happen, voters will finally have a chance to get it right. She won’t be on the ballot. “She’s had enough,” one Democratic politician told me. “She is the scapegoat for rising crime. She wants to get out now, join a big law firm and make money.” According to D-2 disclosure reports, Foxx raised $20 (that’s twenty) in the 2022 4th quarter and had cash-on-hand of $24,618 as of Dec. 31. Clearly, she is not laying the groundwork for another run. MAYORAL UPDATE: Chicago voters desperately want to get it right in 2023, and that means getting rid of Lori Lightfoot. But there is palpable lassitude. There are too many non-Lightfoot choices, so voters are awaiting the runoff, when they won’t have to make a choice and can vote against whoever opposes Lightfoot. Polling dating back to mid-2022 has consistently indicated that about 75 percent of likely voters oppose another term for the mayor. Full Article...
February 1, 2023
VILLEGAS'S 2022 DRUBBING WILL NOT RECUR IN 2023
Failure does not necessarily beget more failure. An electoral drubbing does not necessarily beget or presage another drubbing. Although it usually does. Alderman Gilbert Villegas (36th) might be the 2023 exception, although maybe I should hedge a bit on that. He was defeated in the 2022 3rd congressional district Democratic primary by state Representative Delia Ramirez, amassing 23.1 percent despite spending close to $400,000. She got 66.4 percent, crushing Villegas 37,296-12,590. A drubbing is defined as getting beat soundly in a fight, a thorough thrashing or defeat. Villegas must introduce himself to 10,000 voters. Outlook: The UWF/CTU strategy is to get a Villegas-Whitt April 4 runoff. 50TH WARD (West Rogers Park): The dominant demographic used to be mostly Jewish. Silverstein is the council’s only Jewish member. Full Article...
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