January 18, 2023
ALDERMANIC "ABUNDANCE" WILL SPIKE BLACK WARD TURNOUT -- WILL EX-MAYOR LIGHTFOOT BE NEXT U.S. ATTORNEY?

Abundance is relative. Lots of money is great. Lots of debt is not.  But in the context of the 2023 Chicago municipal elections, an abundance of African-American aldermanic candidates is great news for the seven Black mayoral candidates.

It will spike turnout in the majority-Black wards, of which there are 17 (see chart). In those 17 there are 90 candidates. And in the open wards – 4th, 5th, 6th and 21st – there are 46 candidates.

The opportunity to earn $520,000, which is the aldermanic salary over 4 years, is irresistible. But a large field of candidates means there will be no 50 percent-plus winner on Feb. 28, and an April 4 runoff. There will be runoffs in those four open wards, plus the 24th, and maybe the 16th.

The mayoral contenders – Lori Lightfoot, Willie Wilson, Brandon Johnson, Rodrick Sawyer, Sophia King, Kam Buckner, Ja’mal Green – are battling for a limited piece of the Black voter pie.

The 2019 citywide turnout was 556,758 and turnout in the 17 Black wards was 156,765, or 28.2 percent of that number. The combined 2019 Preckwinkle/Wilson/Lightfoot vote in those wards was 106,338, 68.2 percent that 156,765, and that 106,338 was 19.1 percent of the 556,758 citywide turnout.

The goal on Feb. 28 is to get more than 20 percent, with 25 percent a runoff guarantee. The Black vote is at least 20-23 percent. But that’s meaningless if splintered between so many African-American candidates. In a 2023 turnout of 550,000, 20 percent is 110,000 and 25 percent is 135,000. Those are doable numbers for Jesus Chuy Garcia and Paul Vallas. Both are polling in the 19-24 percent range.

And there WILL be a Garcia-Vallas runoff unless a breakout emerges within the Black candidates. Wilson, Lightfoot or Johnson need to surge quickly and lock-in 50-60 percent of the Black vote and get support from either liberal and LGBTQ White voters (Lightfoot), Woke White voters (Johnson) or law-and-order White voters (Wilson).

In 2019 Wilson finished first in 12 of 17 Black wards, with Preckwinkle doing best in her South Lakefront base, especially her home 5th Ward where she was once alderman and is current committeeperson (D). But her brand of “machine” politics had grown stale; she upped her citywide vote from 16.1 percent in the primary to just 26.3 in the runoff. Had it been a Daley-Preckwinkle runoff, the race card would have been in play. Of her 89,343 primary votes, 40,597 came from Black wards, or 45.3 percent. She got 25.8 percent of the Black ward vote, topping Wilson by 1,617 votes.

Wilson’s base is among older African-American voters. He has donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to churches over the past 20 years, attends one of those churches every Sunday, and is a visible presence in the Black community. He got major publicity by paying for free gas a few times at several stations citywide. Of his 59,072 votes in 2019, 38,080, or 64.4 percent, came from the Black wards, where he got 24.8 percent. Wilson, to get into the 20s and the runoff, needs to get half the Black vote and at least 50,000 White votes.

Lightfoot’s base, both now and in 2019, is quite ephemeral. Her 4-year record excites nobody. She got 26,767 votes, or 17.6 percent, in the Black wards, amounting to 27.4 percent of her citywide vote. She ran as an outsider but has not governed as a “reformer.” She won the runoff because she was not Preckwinkle. This year it is Johnson who is the “outsider,”  and he will cut into Lightfoot’s Black and Leftist bases.

Even if Lightfoot replicates her 17.6 percent showing on Feb. 28, she would not make the runoff. There is no reason to believe her base has grown. Recent polling shows her around 15 percent.

While the mayoral race is about driving turnout, the aldermanic races are all about turning out one’s base. To this end United Working Families (UWF) is the grassroots organizational arm of CTU, AFT and SEIU Healthcare Local 73, which provides the funding. UWF has fielded a candidate in the 4th, 5th, 6th and 9th wards, and is backing the incumbent, Jeanette Taylor, in the 20th Ward.  Given the “abundance” of candidacies, all 5 UWF-backed aspirants will make the runoffs.

3RD WARD (Bronzeville): Like 14 of her colleagues, Pat Dowell, elected in 2007 and Budget Committee chair, wanted to bail by moving up-and-out—but not by retiring. She announced for Secretary of State in 2021 but then switched to a congressional bid when Bobby Rush (D-1) retired. With 3 women running, Jonathan Jackson finished first in the primary with 28.2 percent and Dowell next with 19. Outlook: Dowell is unbeatable in her ward.

4TH WARD (Oakland-Kenwood): It’s the UWF versus Preckwinkle for King’s seat. King won her first full term over attorney ebony Lucas with 66.1 percent in 2019. With 7 2023 candidates a runoff is certain. The top two contenders are UWFer Khari Matthew Humphries and Preckwinkle-backed Lamont Robinson, a state rep. Both will make the runoff.. Outlook: This is Woke Left/CTU against a decrepit but still-functioning Democratic Machine. A ton of money will be spent. Edge to Robinson.

5TH WARD (Hyde Park-Jackson Park): There are 12 candidates and UWF will get its candidate, teacher Desmon Yancy, into the runoff. This is Leslie Hairston’s seat and she is retiring after 24 years. She barely won in 2019, beating Will Calloway 6,849-6,673, a margin of just 176 votes in the runoff. Hairston is committeeperson (D) but the ward is swiftly trending Left. The Democratic establishment is backing Adrienne Irmer, whose petitions have been challenged. Outlook: Consider Yancy a solid favorite in the runoff.

6TH WARD (Park Manor-Chatham): Sawyer, son of the ex-mayor, is running for mayor. There are 13 candidates, with UWF coalescing behind William Hall. Sawyer, understandably, has made no endorsement, but will for April 4. The most likely runner-ups are Sharon Pincham and Richard Wooten. Outlook; Hall wins the runoff.

9TH WARD (Pullman-Roseland-Kensington): 24-year incumbent Anthony Beale has been a fierce Lightfoot critic. He is opposed by UWFer Cleopatra Draper and Cameron Barnes. This race will be decided on Feb. 28. Outlook: Edge to Beale.

21ST WARD (Brainard-Washington Heights): Incumbent Howard Brookins tried to bail in 2022 by running for a countywide judgeship as the SLATED Democrat, but lost. He was re-elected  in the 2019 runoff by 7,183-6,294.  Expect an Ayana Clark and Ronnie Moseley runoff. 

Chicago’s population is 33.1 percent White, 28.8 Black and 28.7 Latino, according to the recent census.

The new council will have 18 Black aldermen, 15 Latinos, one Asian and 16 White aldermen.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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