January 11, 2023
GARCIA BATTLES LEFTIST UWF/CTU/SEIU FOR LATINO WARD DOMINANCE
Chicagoans will likely discover that their next City Council and municipal government will be Left of Left. After the 2023 elections Chicago will rank among the Top Ten of Leftmost-run U.S. cities, joining San Francisco, Portland, Minneapolis, Seattle, New York, Boston, Detroit, Atlanta and Los Angeles.
To be the Left of the Left can sort of be seen as a Marxist-Leninist supportive of a totalitarian State. Its philosophy is “to each according to his/her needs” and “from each according to his/her ability.” And the State decides who gets what and who does what.
Communism is contrary to human nature, and that is why it has failed in practice and will continue to fail. Moving toward the center is Fabian Socialism, a fad in the 1800s which advocated State ownership of all land and all means of production, but with elections. And now we’ve crept into “democratic socialism.” It’s a hybrid wherein government grows ever-bigger, more intrusive and creates more dependency, while capitalism is burdened with ever-bigger taxes and restrictions and free markets grow less free.
Then there’s Leftism, which is now the country’s prevailing cultural force. The Far Left seeks to control and/or oppress thoughts, much like the Far Right.
The wokesters celebrate personal freedom as long as it relates to sexual orientation, abortion and low levels of criminal punishment, but they revile any thought of guns and the 2nd Amendment, which are also freedoms this country affords.
And then there’s good, old-fashioned ideological liberalism, a vanishing philosophy among Democrats. There is a major schism between the Lefty Lefties, who view politics as an expression of a sort of religious conformity, and the mainstream Left who view politics as simply a form of governance.
The 2023 elections are a battle for control of Chicago, especially the council, between the Leftmost, as personified by the Chicago Teachers Union, American Federation of Teachers, SEIU Local 73 and their political front, United Working Families (UWF), and the Left-of-the-Mainstream-Left, as represented by mayoral contender Chuy Garcia. Paul Vallas is Center-Left, Lori Lightfoot is off in the ozone somewhere, and Brandon Johnson is the UWF/CTU choice.
As set forth in the attached chart, in the 14 majority- or near-majority Latino wards, UWF has endorsed candidates in eight and Garcia in five wards, setting up head-to-head contests in the 10th, 12th, 30th and 33rd wards. The congressman may later endorse in the 1st, 12th, 26th and 36th wards, where UWF has a horse. UWF may elect 11-14 aldermen this year. Garcia recently got a $1 million donation from Local 150 of the Operating Engineers (heavy equipment operators), so he’ll have plenty of money to spread around in ward races (as will CTU, SEIU and AFT). The Chicago Democratic Socialists of America (CDSA) have endorsed incumbents in the 1st, 25th, 33rd and 35th wards and Oscar Sanchez in the open 10th.
There is an aldermanic 1st Round (Feb. 28) and a 2nd Round (April 4) in which the 1st’s top 2 finishers compete if nobody gets more than 50 percent. The fundamental rule is AVOID A RUNOFF, especially for an incumbent. A small field (see wards 12, 14, 15, 33, 35, 36) means money must be spent early TO WIN while a large field (see wards 1, 10, 26, 30) means money must be spent early to get the 25-35 percent needed to make the runoff, and then a bundle spent later TO WIN the runoff.
Garcia is the central character in this saga. He can be a thwarter or an enabler. He wants to be Chicago’s mayor and he wants to have a council majority to govern. But he needs to win the runoff, and needs WL/UWF support against Vallas or Wilson. In exchange, he’ll have put a lot of WL/UWF people into key city positions and make a slew of council concessions. If it’s Garcia-Lightfoot on April, Garcia can go on a worry-free cruise. He’ll be the new boss.
33RD WARD (South Albany Park, Ravenswood Manor): Rossana Rodriguez Sanchez beat Deb Mell by 13 votes in the 2019 runoff, winning 5,754-5,741 in a 11,495 turnout. UWF/CTU money back then overwhelmed the Mell Machine. Now Iris Martinez, the county’s Clerk of Circuit Court, is committeeperson (D), but she is no fundraising powerhouse. She is relying on Garcia’s money to lift her candidate, Samie Martinez, a staffer for ex-alderman George Cardenas (12th), who Garcia has endorsed. Also running is Laith Shaaban.
Outlook: Rodriguez Sanchez has had 4 years to build name ID and provide services, even though most of her council focus is on Marching to the Left. No runoff. She will win with 55 percent.
15TH WARD (Brighton Park): Incumbent Ray Lopez thought he could get traction as a law-and-order mayoral candidate, often appearing on FOX News to rip Lightfoot on crime. But he couldn’t raise money and Garcia’s candidacy vaporized Lopez’s South Side Latino base. Now he’s seeking re-election and UWF has come in with Victoria “Vico” Alvarez, Rodriguez Sanchez’s former chief-of-staff, and will spend big and early. Also running is Gloria Williams.
Lopez won by 1,046 votes in the 2019 runoff, winning 3,220-2,174 in a meager 5,394 turnout. All it takes is 3,000 votes to win Round One. Lopez had about $90,000 cash-on-hand as of Dec. 31.
Outlook: Not surprisingly Lopez has endorsed Willie Wilson for mayor. That signals that (1) Garcia was NOT going to endorse him and (2) that he needed a chunk of Wilson’s money. No runoff. Lopez will lose by about 150 votes. Voters don’t appreciate candidates who go office-shopping.
26TH WARD (West Logan Square): Get out before voters throw you out. Incumbent Roberto Maldonado belatedly got that message and folded his campaign around New Year’s. He had three viable opponents, only $55,000 cash-on-hand, and a vanished campaign apparatus. Once a promising protégé of Congressman Luis Gutierrez, Maldonado, age 72, has just hung around too long as his ward gentrified.
The top 3 contenders are committeeperson (D) Angee Gonzalez Rodriguez, who beat Maldonado in 2020, popular DJ Julian Jumpin’ Perez, and UWFer Jessie Fuentes. Outlook; Expect a runoff, probably Perez-Fuentes.
30TH WARD (Belmont-Cragin): Patience is a virtue. Some politicians must wait-for-their-turn. Jessica Gutierrez, an ex-teacher and daughter of the ex-congressman, lost the 2019 runoff to 20-year incumbent Ariel Reboyras by 302 votes, losing 4,097-3,795 in a 7,892 turnout. Reboyras is retiring and backing Ruth Cruz. Gutierrez is endorsed by Garcia. The UWFer is Warren Williams. Outlook: It’s now Gutierrez’s turn. No runoff. She wins with 55 percent.
10TH WARD (Hegewisch, East Side, South Deering): There are five candidates, the unions are all over the map, and Garcia has endorsed Ana Guajardo, along with IBEW, CFL and SEIU. UWF is coming in strong for Oscar Sanchez, along with CTU, AFT and Sunrise Movement. This will be a big-spending race in the far Southeast Side ward, once the bastion of Ed Vrdolyak. Outlook: Expect a Guajardo-Sanchez runoff. If Sanchez gets a flood of money he will win.
36TH WARD (Montclare, West Town, Streeterville): It hasn’t been a very rosy second term for Gil Villegas. First, he was Lightfoot’s council floor leader. Then he wasn’t. Second, as chair of the Latino Caucus, he fought for an additional Latino seat in the remap. He didn’t get it. What he did get is a convoluted new ward which stretches from Montclare along Milwaukee Avenue to North Avenue. Two-thirds of the ward is new. Third, he ran for Congress in the 2022 primary (D) and barely topped 25 percent. And now he’s got UWFer Lori Torres Whitt as a Feb. 28 opponent.
But he’s got about $110,000 cash-on-hand and will get Garcia’s endorsement. Outlook: No runoff. Villegas gets 54 percent.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
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