February 2, 2022
'AUTHENTICITY' KEY FACTOR IN 2022 REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR PRIMARY

It's called risk assessment and it factors into every decision, be it personal, political or financial.

For example, should the U.S. send troops to defend Ukraine, or finish whatever wall was started on the U.S. southern border, or should $200 million or more be spent to try to defeat Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker?

But risk, which is defined as a situation that presents the possibility of damage, injury or loss, is not really a risk if the consequences are minimal.

For example, if using MM, an acronym for "My Money," and you happen to have a net worth of $3 billion, spending $171 million to run for governor, as Pritzker did in 2018, is a lark and not a risk.

If you use Other People's Money, or OPM, as Aurora mayor Richard Irvin is in his 2022 bid for Illinois governor, things get tricky. He is getting his funding from billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin, who fancies adding the governor's office to his portfolio. Irvin is already using Griffin's bucks for a TV blitz, making for a no-lose situation: He's been mayor since 2017, was re-elected in 2021 in a non-partisan election and serves through 2025. He doesn't have to waste time dialing for dollars.

And the Nov. 8 election has already become nationalized, meaning a referendum on the Biden administration and its competence and policies. Illinois overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but nearly elected a Republican governor in 2010, and elected Bruce Rauner (R) by 142,284 votes in 2014.

Rauner won because of Obama fatigue and a depressed Democratic turnout. The obverse occurred in 2018 as anti-Trump rage fueled Democratic turnout and Pritzker won with 54.5 percent. 2022 is very unlikely to be a high-turnout Democratic year, but you never know.

Pritzker is like a rowboat without oars. He is adrift. His COVID mandates have not been especially odious or onerous, in line with those in states with Democratic governors and cities with Democratic mayors. He can't be compared to the Republican governors of Florida or Texas. There is no tangible anti-lockdown fury in Illinois. And due the infusion of federal money, Pritzker can brag about solving the Rauner "crisis." And over 95 percent of his fund-raising comes from his own checkbook.

Pritzker recently dumped $7 million into TV ads and gave $2 million to state House Democrats and $1 million to Senate Democrats. With Mike Madigan gone, Pritzker is the party kingpin. Money matters, and he's got it. A Jan. 22 Victory Research poll had Pritzker beating the four most credible Republicans with between 52 and 55 percent, with undecideds between 17 and 25 percent. Those are excellent numbers, with the unknown Republicans mired in the 20s.

Any incumbent 9 months out polling over 50 percent is a solid favorite - as long as the election is a referendum on him or her. What happens nationally in September and October of 2022, be it unchecked inflation, unchecked borders or unchecked COVID will impact the governor race. So will the identity of the Republican alternative. Quite simply, he cannot be perceived as a Trumpster or ideological crackpot.

And therein lies the Republicans problem.

Partisans on both the Left and Right have a propensity for purity. They vote in primaries for who's authentic and not who's the most electable. That puts a focus on PCA, an acronym for perceived candidate authenticity - which is defined as implying certainty and trustworthiness, as opposed to something spurious or a sham. That clearly defines the upcoming 2022 Republican primary for governor.

A cabal of mega-wealthy Republican establishment insiders decided to run and to fund Irvin for governor in the June 28 primary, even though Irvin voted in the 2014, 2018 and 2020 Democratic primary. But that can be overcome with money, and Team Griffin is running ads highlighting Irvin's tough-on-crime stance during the 2020 summer. Irvin is ex-military, serving in the Army during Desert Shield and Desert Storm. He is also the only candidate with executive experience, but that didn't much matter to Illinoisans when they elected Pritzker, Rauner or Rod Blagojevich.

Everybody knew this was coming. A pollster told me last autumn that the party's "Big Boys" would wait until January to see how the field pans out. It has not, to their satisfaction, done so. The rather desultory field against Pritzker includes state senator Darren Bailey, venture capitalist Jesse Sullivan, construction magnate Gary Rabine and ex-legislator Paul Schimpf.

Sullivan has negligible roots in Illinois but has raised $10 million, which he has squandered on insipid TV and social media ads to "make Illinois strong," but is now running ads hyping himself as a civilian intelligence analyst in Afghanistan and decrying the "Leftist Pritzker-Lightfoot" crowd.

"But this isn't Afghanistan. This is Chicago. And Pritzker's leftist agenda is literally killing us, turning parts of Illinois into a war zone," he says in one of the ads.

Rabine promises to be "pro-business." Bailey, said the pollster, has street credibility, meaning a connection with the base; he was an early and vocal critic of Pritzker's COVID policies and filed a lawsuit. An Oct. 2021 Ogden & Fry poll put Bailey at 33 percent, Sullivan at 6 percent, Rabine at 5 and Schimpf at 3.

My long ago legal mentor once told me that 75 percent of being a lawyer is showing up and the rest is talent. Likewise in politics: You can't win if you're not on the election ballot. So the governor candidates' strategy is complex and delicate: How do you get a third of the vote in a 5-man field without sounding too Rightist? Remember that Rauner barely won his 2018 primary, beating Jeanne Ives 372,124-350,038. Ives's vote is the red meat, anti-abortion, pro-gun Republican base, and 60 percent of Republican primary voters live outside Cook and the collar counties. 2022 could be a replay of 2010 when Downstater Bill Brady won the primary over Kirk Dillard, and then ran an inept, under-funded campaign and lost to Pat Quinn. Bailey is 2022's Brady.

Irvin's race will not be a factor in the primary as long as he is seen as an authentic conservative, and would be beneficial in the election. Winsom Sears, a woman and ex-Marine was elected lieutenant governor of VA last November and Mark Robinson is the LG of NC and is running for governor in 2024.

Outlook: A Republican CAN win for governor in Illinois. It all depends on whether Biden is mildly or egregiously unpopular on Nov. 8.

NEW YORK: Andrew Cuomo is gone, LG Kathy Hochul is the new governor and has raised $10 million, but the Democratic primary is all about identity politics. Hochul is a White woman, Long Island congressman Tom Suozzi is a White man, and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is a Black man. State AG Letitia James is not running but was polling at 20-25 percent, with Hochul around 35-40. Hochul's lockdown COVID policies are massively unpopular outside of New York City. A self-proclaimed "centrist," Suozzi cannot win but could shave votes from Hochul. Williams is the Left/Woke candidate.

The Republican field includes Andrew Giuliani, congressman Lee Zeldin and 2014 loser Rob Astorino. The latest Triton poll shows Giuliani up 35-22 over Zeldin, with 32 percent undecided. Outlook: It should be remembered that George Pataki (R) beat incumbent Mario Cuomo in the anti-Clinton year of 1994. A Giuliani win is possible, but most probable against Williams. But Giuliani's Trump connection is a real anchor.

MICHIGAN: 8-YEAR Detroit police chief James Craig is running for governor - AS A REPUBLICAN. Incumbent Whitmer (D) won with 52.3 percent in 2018 and has been a fervent "lockdowner." Recent polls put the race at 46-46 or Whitmer up 46-41. Outlook: For a governor to be in a race this close this early does not bode well. Craig will win.

CALIFORNIA: The state has an open, all-party primary with the top two finishers on the election ballot. Incumbent Gavin Newsom easily survived his September recall. 50 candidates declared as of Jan. 31. Newsom wins.

GEORGIA: Trump lost GA by over 10,000 votes, but his 2020 post-election whining caused over 350,000 Republicans NOT to vote in the Jan. 5 U.S. Senate runoffs, giving Democrats two seats and senate control. 2022 is all about Trump payback. He's running ex-senator David Perdue against governor Brian Kemp (R), accusing him of lack of diligence in overturning the results. Kemp won with 50.2 percent in 2018 over Stacey Abrams (D), who is running again. A nasty primary could hand her the job. Recent polls show Kemp up 43-36, but that he would lose the ensuing runoff 47-44 to Perdue. Both lead Abrams by 2-3 points.

FLORIDA: This race has national implications. Incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) has avoided lockdowns and school closures and his current poll numbers are impressive. DeSantis is a contender for president in 2024. Two Democrats are running: Ex-governor Charlie Crist and agriculture commissioner Nikki Fried, who is the Leftmost. Polls show her up 36-33. An average of polls to date show DeSantis beating Crist 49-44 and Fried 51-41.

TEXAS: Governor Greg Abbott is like the proverbial Dutch boy trying to plug the flood of immigrants with his finger. But Texans vent about Biden and not him. He's up 47-36 over Beto O'Rourke in the latest poll.