December 28, 2022
SPRINGFIELD REPUBLICANS RANK AMONG NATION'S "MOST INCONSEQUENTIAL"

The puny contingent of Republicans in the Illinois legislature are inconsequential in numbers, negligible in presence and laughable in future prospects.

After the 2022 election there were only 59 Republicans in a body of 59 state senators and 118 state representatives. That’s exactly one-third of 177 members. To find any other state so lopsidedly Democratic one must look to CA, MA, VT, HI and RI where Democrats control 80-85 percent of the seats (see chart attached).

If Trump is the 2024 Republican presidential candidate, Democrats could push their IL majorities into the 70-75 percent range. Right now it’s Senate 40D-19R, a 67.7 percent majority,  and House 78D-40R, a 66 percent majority, the Democrats’ most staggering majorities in the past century. Even with Mike Madigan gone and Don Harmon and Chris Welch in charge, nothing seems to have changed in Springfield.

Democrats continue to raise copious amounts of money from special interests, continue to demonize Chicago-area Republicans with nasty TV and social media, and continue to do what they want legislatively. With J.B. Pritzker (D) as governor the Democrats have what is called a “trifecta” – control of both chambers and the governorship. On Nov. 8 Democrats gained 5 House seats but lost one Senate seat in the Metro East area. Cook County and the collar counties are a Republican wasteland.

Springfield Republicans are a nuisance, isolated to the side of each chamber  getting 2-4 minority members of 10-15 on various committees. They have no input. They have no legislative agenda. They have no record to run on. And the party nominates unelectable buffoons (like Darren Bailey) to run statewide highlighting their pro-gun, anti-abortion beliefs, dragging down some sensible Republicans. In 2022 11 Republican legislators bailed and 4 fiercely conservative incumbents defeated. . Why bother anymore?

Elsewhere in the Midwestern states it’s the Democrats who are the legislative nuisance – in IN, IA, WI, OH, MO, KY and KS, where Republicans hold commanding majorities of 60-75 percent. Democrats hold governorships in WI, KY and KS, so there are only 4 trifectas, but Republicans are   consequential, numerous and serious. They create a record to run on.

A case in point is OHIO, with a competent Republican governor (Mike DeWine) who won by 1,034,935 votes in 2022 and buoyed all party candidates: The Senate is 26R-7D, a 79 percent majority, and the House 67R-31D, a 68 percent majority. Republicans hold every state office, the state Supreme Court and 10 of 15 congressional seats.

OH is much like IL in terms of population (11,799,448 versus 12,812,50) and African-America population (13 percent versus 15), but Cleveland is not Chicago. OH has three medium-sized media markets, Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, none of which dominate the state, while IL has one gigantic Chicago media market, which dominates the state, with dinky markets in Rockford, Peoria, Springfield and East St. Louis. 

Both states have large farming sectors, but OH has the larger manufacturing base, centered in the Akron-Youngstown corridor, filled with blue-collar ex-Democrats who are not Woke/Leftists. Northeastern IL is crammed with Woke/Leftists who detest Trump. Both states function well, the difference being that Ohioans trust Republicans to keep it well while Illinoisans, after the Rauner fiasco and Trump’s tenure, abhor the prospect of any Republican in any office.

Another case in point is MICHIGAN, where governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) beat a Trumpster by 469,870 votes and shrewdly got a “Right to Reproductive Freedom” (RRF) initiative on the ballot, codifying Roe v. Wade in the MI constitution. It won overwhelmingly. Republicans, like lemmings, had to cater to their shriveling pro-life base and lost their legislative majorities. RRF gave Democrats 20D-18R and 56D-54R in the Senate and House, and a trifecta.

Likewise in MINNESOTA where the abortion issue stirred liberal voters in the Twin Cities, suburbs and Rochester. Tim Walz (D) was re-elected handily with Democrats up 34D-33R and 70D-64 in the legislature, a trifecta. Not so much in KANSAS, where pro-choice governor Laura Jeanne Kelly (D) was re-elected, but Republicans kept their 31R-7D and 85R-40D majorities. In August Kansans rejected a constitutional amendment which would have banned abortion.

And not in INDIANA where a Republican legislature (40R-10D and 70R-30D) voted to ban abortion with exceptions. Republicans gained 2 seats on Nov. 8. Republicans also gained seats in KENTUCKY (31R-7D and 80R-20D), MISSOURI (24R-10D and 111R-52D), OKLAHOMA (40R-8D and 81R-20D), but the year’s biggest blow-out was in WEST VIRGINIA where the Republicans gained 25 seats (putting them at 36R-4D and 8R-12D), where Biden’s anti-coal policies are reviled, and where Democrats are nearing extinction level.

BIG STATES: It is conventional political wisdom that CALIFORNIA is out-of-reach for Republicans and has been since Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) was termed out in 2010. Gavin Newsom  won re-election by 2,007,190 votes (after crushing his 2021 recall) and Democrats added 4 to their 32D-8R and 62D-18R majorities. Those are 80 percent-plus numbers. But CA has term-limits – 8/6 years in Senate/House – so there is constant change and turnover. Voters seem fine with that. Republicans are just a nuisance, not an alternative.

FLORIDA proved in 2022 that it is now out-of-reach for Democrats. Not only did governor Ron DeSantis (R) win by 1,507,877 votes and senator Marco Rubio (R) by 1,273,325, but Republicans gained 4 congressional seats and 11 legislative seats, upping to 28R-12D and 85R-35D. Those are 70 percent-plus numbers. Part of the swing came from South Florida Latinos, especially Cubans; voting overwhelmingly for Rubio (their “Cuban senator”) and other Republicans; part from DeSantis’s party-building efforts and his focus on electing school board members; part from the fact that term-limits create upward opportunities; and part from DeSantis’s record as a competent governor.

DeSantis won with 59.4 percent in 2022. If he runs as his party’s presidential nominee in 2024, he will sweep FL with 65 percent.

TEXAS is not out-of-reach for Democrats but the reach is getting more difficult. Governor Greg Abbott (R) won by 893,443 votes, getting 54.8 percent. The congressional delegation is now 25R-13D and Republicans upped their TX majorities to 19R-12D and 86D-64D, a gain of 2.

GEORGIA: The state has two Democratic U.S. Senators, with Raphael Warnock (D) beating Herschel Walker (R) by 100,000 votes in the runoff. But Brian Kemp (R) is a competent governor who is not a Trumpster; he won by 297,899 votes, getting 53.4 percent, and Republicans kept their 33R-23D and 101R-79D majorities plus picked-up a congressional seat.
The exploding Black population in and around Atlanta will erase the Republicans’ trifecta, but not until the late 2020s or early 2030s.

For Republicans NEW YORK is out-of-reach forever. The legislature is 42D-21R and 101D-49R, but Republicans did gain 7 seats largely because Lee Zeldin (R) lost for governor by “only” 377,834 votes. PENNSYLVANIA is an anomaly. Republicans ran a horrific pro-Trump candidate for governor who got obliterated by 791,884 votes, but they kept the senate 28R-22D while losing 10 House seats for a 102D-101R flip.

There were 7,383 state legislators (3,989R-3,272D) with 6,278 seats  on the 2022 ballot. The breakout for senators elected was 1,092R-869D and representatives 2,897R-2,408D. Legislatures are fertile fields to grow and groom future candidates.

For IL Republicans the fields are barren daily. Get it?

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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