December 14, 2022
TRUMP MORE OF "THREAT" TO REPUBLICANS THAN TO BIDEN IN 2024
A narcissist is defined as having an excessive interest in one’s own importance and abilities, and, psychologically, as a fixation on one’s own self. That defines Donald Trump. His fledgling 2024 presidential campaign will be disastrous for Republicans and would be certain to wipe out their tenuous 222-213 U.S. House majority. And he doesn’t give a damn.
Trump is a pariah, much as Herbert Hoover was after the Great Depression. The 2022 mid-terms were an astoundingly underwhelming Republican victory, their only spot of cheer being Nancy Pelosi’s departure as speaker. They have a small foothold from which to launch investigations and harass the Biden Administration. A 2024 Biden-Trump contest would erase that.
Republicans had been projected to pick up 26-30 House seats; instead they gained a net of 9. The Nov. 8 popular vote in House races was 54,466,587 for Republican candidates, or 50.6 percent, and 51,427,667 for Democrats. Normally in a mid-term the party-in-power’s base is less motivated and the out-party benefits from a 5-8 percent swing, as occurred recently in 2018, 2014, 2010 and 2006. Those were called “wave” elections.
But not this year. The pro-Biden Democratic base, incensed by the abortion and “threat to democracy” issues, turned out in numbers equal to the mostly pro-Trump Republican base, conclusively proving that Trump is so toxic that he cannot win in 2024.
The 2020 presidential vote was 81,383,501/Biden to 74,223,075/Trump, a margin of 7,162,425. That’s a big difference. In 2016 Hillary Clinton topped Trump 65,853,574-62,984,829, a margin of 2,868,745. Trump got 46.8 percent of the popular vote in 2020, gaining 11,238,246 votes over 2016, when he got 46.1 percent. Biden got 51.3 percent of the popular vote in 2020, gaining 15,529,987 votes over 2016, when Clinton got 48.2 percent. The key was the electoral vote (EV), which Trump won 304-227 in 2016 but lost 306-232 in 2020, a swing of 72 EVs, and that was caused by a surge in voter turnout. It was 55.7 percent in 2016 and rose to 62.8 percent in 2020. And as delineated above, almost 60 percent of the surge came from new Democratic and/or anti-Trump voters.
As demonstrated on Nov. 8 that surge has not subsided. If the Biden base is 81 million voters then 51 milllion Democrats, or 62 percent, turned out (almost equal to 2020) while 54 million Republicans, or 73 percent, turned out. That should have produced a “wave,” but it cannot and never will if the Democratic/anti-Trump base outnumbers the Republicans by 5 percent.
As set forth in the adjoining chart, and presuming Trump’s EV base is 2020’s 232, Trump needs to capture 38 EVs to win. And the obvious targets are GA (16 EVs), AZ (11), MI (15,), PA (19), NV (6), WI (10) and NH (4), but Republican (and especially pro-Trump) performance in those states was abysmal in 2022. Trump-endorsed candidates lost for governor in PA, MI, WI, and AZ. And he must retain the states he won in 2016 and 2020 – FL (30), TX (40), OH (17), NC (16) and IA (6).
Recent general polling shows a tight 2024 contest, with Harvard-Harris (Nov. 18) putting it at 44/42 for Trump/Biden and 43/43 for DeSantis/Biden. Hill/Emerson (Nov. 22) had it at 45/41 for Biden/Trump and 43/39 for Biden/DeSantis. But EVs are where it’s at, and Trump is trailing Biden in every state he lost in 2020 except GA. A Nov. 22 Politico-Morning Consult poll had Trump up over DeSantis among Republicans 45 to 30.
December polling shows an ongoing definite disconnect between voters’ perception and reality. The “direction of the country” was at 21/65 right/wrong track in Reuters/IPSOS and 30/66 in Rasmussen. Biden’s job approval was at 40/49 approve/disapprove in IBD/TIPP, 41/54 in CNBC, 40/55 in Gallup and 48/50 in Rasmussen. Congressional job approval was at 22/73 in a Gallup poll. Yet slightly more than half the voters perceive that voting Democratic/Biden is less bad than voting Republican/Trump and that the country’s problems – inflation, recession, immigration, crime, higher interest rates, a fizzling housing market – would not be fixed by the Republicans. By 2024 abortion rights will have faded as an issue but if Trump is running he will be THE issue.
2022 demonstrated that top-of-ticket candidates matter. An unelectable candidate is a drag on all others and Trump will be that anchor in 2024, certainly costing speaker-to-be Kevin McCarthy his House majority. DeSantis would not.
NEW YORK: Trump lost the state by an awesome 1,722,777 in 2020 (and would do so again in 2024) and the departed Andrew Cuomo (D) was re-elected governor by 1,264,267 votes in 2018. Both wins crushed down-ballot Republicans. But 2022 was different. Congressman Lee Zeldin (R) ran on the issues of crime, corruption, Cuomo and COVID shutdowns, and lost for governor to Kathy Hochul by only 325,893 votes, getting 46.7 percent.
This prompted a down-ballot Republican rebound. The NY congressional delegation is now 15D-11R, a change from 19D-8R after 2020. With Trump again atop the ballot at least half those House seats would be forfeited. Poof goes McCarthy’s majority. DeSantis would also lose NY, but not by 1.7 million.
ILLINOIS: Trump lost the state by 1,020,024 votes in 2020 and Trump-endorsed Darren Bailey lost for governor by 479,983 votes to J.B. Pritzker (D). There is no reason 2024 will be different. And there was serious collateral damage: Democrats won all four contested congressional seats by comfortable majorities. Sean Casten (D-6) got 54.4 percent, Lauren Underwood (D-14) got 54.2, Nikki Budzinski (D-13) got 56.6, and Eric Sorensen (D-17) got 52. Republicans blew the Rockford-Rock Island 17th by running a fervent Trumoster.
MICHIGAN: Trump lost the state by 154,188 votes in 2020 and Trump-endorsed Tudor Dixon lost for governor by 469,872 votes to Gretchen Whitmer (D), who has White House ambitions. Abortion was a huge issue. Democrats got a constitutional amendment on the ballot called the “Reproductive Freedom Act.” It spiked liberal and female turnout. Democrats swept every statewide office, flipped the MI Senate and picked up a congressional seat.
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump lost the state in 2020 by 80,555 votes after winning it in 2016. Republicans ran a fringe Trumpster for governor and he got crushed by 791,864 votes, helping to drag down Dr. Mehmet Oz’s senate campaign. Oz lost by 263,005 votes. Republicans hoped to flip three congressional seats, but lost them all. The delegation is now 8R-9D; they expected 11R-6D.
FLORIDA: Job performance matters and this state is solidly Republican, but not necessarily pro-Trump. He won the state in 2020 by 372,686 votes but Ron DeSantis was re-elected governor by an astounding 1,507,981 votes, or 59.4 percent and Marco Rubio re-elected senator by 1,273,412 votes, or 57.7 percent. DeSantis won by just 32,463 votes in 2018.
The issue was competence. DeSantis, age 44, made the race a referendum on himself, highlighting his avoidance of business and school shutdowns during the pandemic and his handling of hurricanes. Voters responded with resounding approval. DeSantis won by 1,135,295 more votes than Trump. If Republicans expect to oust Biden-Harris it will be because they highlight the administration’s incompetence.
Republicans now have super-majorities (over 2/3rds) in the legislature and picked up 4 congressional seats; the delegation is now 20R-8D.
TEXAS: Trump won the state in 2020 by 631,621 votes and governor Greg Abbott was re-elected on Nov. 8 by 883,443 votes, or 54.8 percent, crushing the ubiquitous Beto O’Rourke. The Rio Grande border is completely porous with 6,500 immigrants a day flooding into TX. Abbott has an impossible job. Texans blame Biden and realize the problem will persist until Biden is gone.
ARIZONA: Trump lost the state by 10,457 votes in 2020 but Trumpsters Kari Lake (for governor) and Blake Masters (for senator) lost, respectively, by 14,111 and 125,719 votes this year. AZ may be gone statewide for Republicans, but they did pick up two House seats.
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