October 12, 2022
"STEP ASIDE" ARE TERRIFYING WORDS FOR AGING POLITICIANS
There are two horrific words that no politician wants to hear. Step aside.
After a lifetime spent clawing their way to the pinnacles of power, of believing themselves indispensable and irreplaceable, of being elite amongst the elite, of being the ruling class dedicated to “transforming” America, they know it must end, someday. That they must voluntarily step aside before voters involuntarily push them aside. But that will not happen anytime soon for a lot of aging politicians.
The critical and burgeoning political/cultural divide in America is more generational than ideological. To be sure, the Far Left is the wave of the future. But the reigning crop of old politicians have so corrupted capitalism and free markets with their own greed and avarice that socialism now appears the best and only alternative for the younger generation.
There is enormous resentment and anger among the under-45 demographic, the so-called Gen-X and now Gen-Z born after 1985. To them everything in the country and the world is screwed-up so badly, almost beyond salvation. And they blame the “oldsters” who did it and yet continue to cling to power -- the so-called Baby-Boomers born 1946-60. And there are even some pre-Baby-Boomers, like Nancy Pelosi and Bernie Sanders, born BEFORE Pearl Harbor when FDR was president.
“Experience” is simply an endless succession of stupid mistakes and poor judgments from which a person learns not to repeat them – and then doesn’t. That’s called “wisdom,” as they grow fewer as one ages. Back in Greek and Roman times there were Councils of Elders, a bunch of ”wise” old men. It was the Biblical “Three Wise Men” who brought gifts to the baby Jesus. It has always been the “wise” old men who got nations into wars, and the young men who did the dying.
And that is the infuriated gripe of the under-45ers: They correctly perceive that America’s doddering class of ruling geriatric geezers are NOT wise. They make poor judgments over and over again. And they never learn from their screw-ups, nor do they ever apologize or repent. And then the geezers whine, blaming everybody and everything else. According to Biden everything is just spiffy, but if you don’t think so then blame (fill in the blank): Trump, Putin, White supremacists, insurrectionists, Republicans, MAGA extremists, COVID, greedy oil companies, the Supreme Court AND the bad-news obsessed media. Never mind a Biden job performance approval in the low 40s. Not his fault.
But the geezers are a tenacious bunch, clinging to their power. It’s all about their ego, identity and privilege. They can keep messing-up but they can’t step aside. By 2024 the under-45ers will be half of America’s population, and they want the old folks gone. But they won’t, certainly not in 2024. A gaggle of 70-somethings and even a few 80-somethings are crowding the presidential field. They’re stepping-in, not aside.
Imagine a 2024 Biden-Trump contest: One will be 82 and some say has mental acuity problems and the other is 78 and some say has mental stability problems. Do we really want a Trump replay? Do we really want to witness cognitive decline for 4 more years? That’s an abysmal choice. If “Neither” was on the ballot it would get a majority. Age does not insure good judgment.
And the alternatives? Hillary Clinton will be 76 in 2024, Sanders 83, Elizabeth Warren 75 and Kamela Harris age 60. In the Biden cabinet are Antony Blinken, age 60, at State and Janet Yellen, age 76, at Treasury. You would think they would be wise beyond belief. Don’t bother. In Congress there is speaker Pelosi, who will be 83 in 2023, majority leader Steny Hoyer, who will be 84 in 2023, and whip Jim Clyburn, who will be 83, along with Mitch McConnell (81) and Chuck Schumer (73) in the Senate. They spend most of their time and energy not legislating but instead raising massive money from corporate America, Big Tech and Big Labor so as to keep (or get) their party in power. Then after the election do it again for the next cycle.
This is pure pay-to-play American capitalism in action. Everything has a price, and you get what you pay for. No wonder the under-45ers think the system is rigged.
U.S. HOUSE: EXIT PELOSI. The good news is that Pelosi will be off to Rome in 2023, filling the vacant ambassadorship to Italy. The reason is that her 220-212 House majority will crumble on Nov. 8 and her Democrats will be in the minority -- and Kevin McCarthy (R) the new speaker. The magic number for a majority is 218, so Republicans need a net gain of 6 seats.
Various non-partisan Web sites and newsletters monitor the 435 congressional races and periodically rate them in these categories: Toss-up, Lean R/D or Likely R/D, with the rest as Safe R/D. The 8 top rankers are Cook, Politico, Inside Elections, Sabato, RealClearPolitics, FOX, DDHQ and 538. Their projected Toss-ups as of Oct. 10 range from a high of 34 (RCP) to a low of 12 (538). They then lump all the Safe/Likely/Lean seats together to create a floor/ceiling, with the Democrats’ range at 182/208 and the Republicans’ at 211/223.
If, as expected, the Toss-ups break 60-40 (or better) Republican, they will net 15-20 seats, putting them in the 230-seat range with Democrats around 205.
With the House gone the Biden agenda will be DOA for 2023-24. No big spending/Green New Deal legislation will be passed. It will be gridlock. It won’t matter whether the Democrats keep the Senate (now 50-50) this year. Biden’s dream of being a “transformational” will be over and his party will be looking for his replacement. Campaign-24 will start on Jan. 3, with 22 months of whining, bickering, blaming and investigating to ensue.
As for Pelosi, STEP ASIDE time will finally arrive. After 18 terms Pelosi is not going to be the minority leader, as she did after 2010. The Woke/Leftist faction of the caucus won’t permit it and will blame her for the 2022 debacle. Nor will Hoyer, after 21 terms, get his promotion. The party will want a battler as leader and that will likely be Hakeem Jeffries (D), a New York congressman from Brooklyn.
ILLINOIS CONTESTS: With redistricting in 2021 after the 2020 census, with Democrats in control of the IL legislature and governor, and with IL losing one seat, the goal was to cut 2020’s 13D-5R delegation to 14D-3R after 2022. And the methodology is called “packing.” In other words, stuff as many Republican voters into as few districts as possible while creating as many 55-60 percent Democratic districts as possible.
Lumping 4 Republicans into two packed Downstate districts Democrats insured that Republicans won renomination. Adam Kinzinger and Rodney Davis will be gone.
In the open western IL 17TH DISTRICT (Rock Island to Rockford), which Trump won 50-48, Esther Joy King (R) has a shot. She got 48 percent in 2020. The Democrat is ex-weathercaster Eric Sorensen and he is up in the polls, but the June 28 primary turnout was 45,339R-39,006D. Toss-up.
In the new 13TH DISTRICT, created for ex-J.B. Pritzker advisor Nikki Budzinski (D), Democrats did a nice packing job by stringing together the pro-D areas of Springfield, Champaign, Metro East and Decatur. But Trump won 50-47 and 2022 primary turnout was 43,052R-41,805D. The Republican is education foundation exec Regan Deering.. A recent poll had Budzinski up 39-36 Leans D.
Lauren Underwood (D) was re-elected by 3,372 votes in the 14TH DISTRICT in 2020, getting 50.7 percent while Trump won 50-48. The primary turnout was 45,310R-37,780D. The Republican is Kendall county board chair Scott Gryder. Leans D. And in the 6TH DISTRICT, Sean Casten (D) looks Safe. Biden won 55-43. The Republican is Orland Park mayor Keith Pekau.
Of course every generation thinks the past generation really messed up everything. We look at the World War II generation and see only Vietnam and racial riots, not prosperity and the collapse of the USSR. The new generation looks at America and sees only failures in race relations, “equity” and climate change, not the tech revolution along with tremendous growth and equality in wealth and opportunity.
The newbies are in a rush to build the USSA, United Socialist States of America, where all “offensive” thought is banned, all history doctored or canceled, and government guarantees that everybody “feels good.” But history repeats itself, largely because wisdom does not replicate itself. It can only be re-learned by each generation. And the coming generation, quite predictably, will mess everything up as well. Just you know, in their own woke way.
A final thought: As of mid-2023 I will have been filling-up this space in Nadig Newspapers for 50 years. That’s roughly 2,600 columns and 4 million words. I was born during the Korean War. That makes me a geezer too. To my critics and detractors, who are numerous and who await the day when I STEP ASIDE, there are a few choice 2-word epithets I could write (none printable), so I’ll just go with NOT YET.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
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