September 7, 2022
TRUMPISM, ABORTION WILL NOT THWART REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR GAINS -- DeSANTIS, ABBOTT WILL WIN BIG

by RUSS STEWART

Democrats have done an extraordinary job of rebounding and reconfiguring the national political environment. What was once a likely referendum on the Biden-Harris administration’s many failed policies, and a Nov. 8 wipe-out, has evolved into a choice between Trumpism and non-Trumpism.

An August Wall Street Journal poll put a potential 2024 Biden-Trump race at 50-42 even though it was the reverse in early 2022, while Biden’s approval/disapproval lingers around 44/54 (although up from the high 30s). Trump had those numbers in 2018 and the result was a drag on the Republican party and they lost 7 governorships.

BACKGROUND: Of the 50 statehouses, the current breakout is 28R-22D. There will be 36 governor races this year (20R-16D). There are open (R) seats in AZ, AR, NE, MD and MA as well as (D) OR and PA. In 2018 Democrats ousted Republicans in IL, MI, WI, NV, NM, ME and KN, all due to anti-Trump drag and the nationalization of issues. Republicans can flip back 6 of those 7, forgetting about IL, will lose their seats in MD and MA, but will win marquee contests in FL, TX, IA and GA  with their incumbents re-elected.

The reason is that the electorate approves the policies and performance of those governors – Ron DeSantis (FL), Greg Abbott (TX), Kim Reynolds (IA) and Brian Kemp (GA) – and the Democrats cannot use Trump to polarize and propagandize those races. Each governor stands alone, and Nov. 8 is a referendum on him or her, not Biden or Trump.

And each presents a strong contrast to Biden and the Far Left, especially on COVID, crime, schooling and immigration. New York is developing as another marquee race where Trump is not a factor, nor will it be in  OH, MN, NV, KN, NE or OR, where Republican candidates are conservative but not MAGA types.

But Trumpism is writ large in PA, WI, AZ, MI, MD and even IL, all but AZ and MD  having Democratic governors who imposed shutdowns, lockdowns, school closures and mandatory masks. Each contest except AZ will be a referendum on Trump, which makes somewhere between likely and certain that Republicans will blow all six. Because of the border AZ will be a Trump v. Biden referendum.

PENNSYLVANIA: Trump essentially lost his presidency when he lost PA by 80,577 votes in 2020, after winning it by 44,292 in 2016. That’s a turnaround of 125,000 votes. Game over. It’s also over for Trump-backed governor nominee Doug Mastriano (R). He faces PA attorney general Josh Shapiro (D). Primary turnout was 1,346,914 Rs and 1,226,614 Ds. An August Emerson poll put it at 47-44. Outlook: Mastriano loses by 100,000.

MICHIGAN: Can you say “Gretchen Whitmer for president”? She won in 2018 with 53.3 percent, imposed draconian COVID restrictions, and now has a pushover Trumpster (R) foe, Tudor Dixon, a cable TV commentator.  Trump won MI by 10,704 votes in 2016 but lost by 154,198 in 2020 – another bungle (like PA). Outlook: An 8/18 Fabrizio poll put it at 51-46. An incumbent at or above 50 percent is a winner. Whitmer can then focus on post-Biden 2024, although the gender/women’s party base will be split between Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar.

ILLINOIS: What’s more to say? J.B. Pritzker wins but Darren Bailey (R) will break 40 percent.

MARYLAND: It seems a metaphysical impossibility that a state Trump lost by 734,459 votes in 2016 and by 1,008,609 in 2020, giving Biden 65.4 percent, could have a popular 8-year Republican governor. Larry Hogan (R) got 55.4 percent in 2018 but is term-limited. Outlook; Trump endorsed legislator Dan Cox (R), who will get obliterated by author Wes Moore (D).

What IS certain is that Republicans are NOT going to bungle these five.

FLORIDA: Given that incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) is the Republicans’ Great Non-Trump Hope for 2024 – and, in fact, might be the only guy who can beat Trump in the primaries.

Unlike blue state governors (D) during COVID’s zenith, DeSantis DID NOT DO what they did. The Left media derided FL as a “killing field” and vilified DeSantis because he DID NOT shutter businesses, bars, restaurants, hotels and beaches, and kept schools open. They also warned COVID would be a scourge of FL seniors. DeSantis has been vindicated.

Trump won by 112,910 votes in 2016 and upped that to 370,785 in 2020, getting 51.2 percent, and DeSantis by 32,463 in 2018. Polls throughout 2021-22 have put DeSantis at about 50 percent with a Democrat just above 40 percent. Ex-Republican governor Charlie Crist won the Democratic nomination and immediately told all Trump/DeSantis supporters that they were “filled with hate” and didn’t want their vote, writing-off 5,668,731 Trump voters. He called himself the candidate of “love.” A mid-August UNF poll had DeSantis up 50-42. Outlook: Trump won by close to 400,000, and DeSantis will up that to 450,000.

TEXAS: There were 1.7 million encounters with immigrants through May 2022, almost as many as all of 2021, with 3 million the 2022 total, and 300,000-plus getaways. The feds control border security and there is none. Greg Abbott (R) is fighting a hopeless battle against Biden’s policies but not against Beto O’Rourke (D), who he has consistently led by roughly 48-41 in 2022 polls.

Trump won TX by 631,221 in 2020, down  from 807,229 in 2016. Abbott won by 1,109,887 in 2018, the primary had 1,954,172 Rs and 1,075,601 Ds, a plus=R bulge of 878,571. Outlook: Texas is not “going Blue.” Outlook: Abbott wins by 700,000,

GEORGIA: Inoculation may be a medical phrase, but when a governor (R) and his state election officials refuse to “find 11,000 votes,” as demanded by Trump, refuse to impugn the credibility of GA’s vote-counting system, refuse to buckle to media and Leftist criticism of their election reforms, costing Atlanta an All-Star game, and then trounces a Trump-backed opponent (an ex-senator) by 625,689 votes, getting 72.2 percent in the primary, I’d say nobody’s going to hang Trump around Brian Kemp’s (R) neck.

Kemp was elected in 2018 by 54,793 votes over Black voting rights heroine Stacey Abrams but the Trump vendetta has injected him with a veritable immortality drug. Trump won GA by 211,341 votes in 2016 but the 3-year effort of Abrams to register minorities paid off in 2020 with an 11,773-vote Biden win and 2-seat senate pickup. The Democratic base vote was up 595,870 over 2016, and Trump’s up 372,750.

Abrams and national Democrats expected a 2022 GA wave of anti-Trump revulsion, but didn’t expect Kemp to benefit. The 2022 primary had 1,204,742 Rs and 727,168 Ds. Outlook: Kemp wins by 250,000.

And some pro-Republican dynamics are in play in these states. NEVADA: Republicans caught a huge break when Clark County (Las Vegas) sheriff Joe Lombardo was nominated to face incumbent Steve Sisolak (D), who got 49.4 percent in 2018. Lombardo has a long law enforcement career, is well-known and cannot be isolated as a Trumpster. He’s up 2-3 points in the polls. Trump’s vote was up by almost 100,000 in 2020 and Latinos view the flood of immigrants as a job threat. Outlook: Lombardo wins.

NEW YORK: A Republican as governor? The departed Andrew Cuomo won with 59.6 percent in 2018, but Trump lost by 1,738,490 votes in 2016 and by 1,986,212 in 2020, with Trump getting 37.8 percent. But George Pataki (R) did oust Mario Cuomo (D) in 1994, and got re-elected in 1998 and 2002.

Hochul was lieutenant governor, and she is just like her predecessor but minus the behavioral problems. She is obsessed with Woke pro-nouns, oblivious to crime, won’t fire NYC DA’s, wants NY to be America’s abortion capital and has raised over $75 million. Lee Zeldin (R) is an obscure Long Island congressman. But something may be happening. New Yorkers may be asking: Can I tolerate 4 years of her?

A dubious early August WNYT poll had Hochul up 49-29 but a 9/5 Trafalgar poll had it at 48-43. Hochul is running on national issues while Zeldin is framing the race as about “change” in a Woke Democratic-run state. Outlook: Zeldin won’t be another Pataki, but Hochul won’t win by more than 200,000.

KANSAS: Trump won the state by 244,013 votes in 2016 and by 201,083 in 2020, getting 56.2 percent. This is a 3-party state: Democrats, mainstream Republicans and fervent anti-abortion, pro-Trump Republicans. When the fringe wins a primary, Democrats win the election. That’s what Laura Kelly (D) did in 2018 getting 48 percent. Outlook: Non-fringe state attorney general Derek Schmidt (R) leads in the polls and will win.

OREGON: Trump lost the state by 219,703 in 2016 and 381,935 in 2020, and the months-long “peaceful” Portland riots of 2020 have polarized the state into Woke versus non-Woke. But outgoing governor Kate Brown, a lockdown fanatic, got only 50.1 percent in 2018. Democrats nominated ex-House speaker Tina Kotek whose campaign is fanatic about guns and abortion. The 2022 primary vote was 491,445 Ds and 378,317 Rs. Her win should be a done deal. The Republican is ex-state rep Christine Drazan. But also running is ex-legislator Betsy Johnson, who is positioning herself as Left but not far Left.

A recent Cygnal poll had Kotek up 32-31-24. Outlook: As long as Johnson doesn’t fold, Drazan can and will win with 35-38 percent.

MINNESOTA: The George Floyd killing solidified MN’s already polarized politics. It became the Twin Cities (and close-in suburbs) Wokesters versus everybody else. Trump won the state by 15,235 on 2016, but then lost it by 230,012 in 2020. The Wokesters/anti-Trumpsters were clearly the majority and still are). Outlook: Incumbent Tim Walz (D) is a master straddler who got 53.6 in 2018 but Scott Jensen (R) is a fresh non-Trump face and will win.

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