August 17, 2022
BAILEY PROVING TO BE HUGE DRAG ON PODGORSKI'S COMMISSIONER CANDIDACY

It is difficult to metaphorically “run” for public office when tethered to a proverbial “ball-and-chain.” That situation tends to drag candidates down politically and makes winning elections difficult.

And that is precisely what hapless Republican gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey is doing to the otherwise well-funded and very electable Republican county commissioner candidate Matt Podgorski in the Republican-leaning far Northwest Side and northwest suburban 9th District, which is being vacated by Pete Silvestri (R).

Bailey, a Downstate farmer, won the June 28 primary with 57.5 percent, having positioned himself as pro-gun, anti-abortion, anti-COVID mandates, pro-Trump and anti-tax increases. Since his win Bailey has been doing a spectacular job of making sure that he will lose spectacularly, getting less than 40 percent, to incumbent J.B. Pritzker (D). Bailey has been no entirely visible in the Chicago-area media market, and polls show him losing by 10-14 points, which means by about 600,000 votes in Chicago, 260,000 in the Cook County suburbs, 250,000 in the collar counties and 700,000 statewide.

9TH DISTRICT/DAMAGE CONTROL: Bailey is 2022’s Trump – a “ball-and-chain” on all non-Downstate Republicans, including Podgorski. The Democrats’ expectation is that all those pro-Pritzker voters (he is third on the ballot) will keep on voting for Democrats all the way down to Maggie Trevor (D), Podgorski’s 9th District opponent for commissioner, listed 15th on the ballot. Trevor is a “progressive” and 2-time loser for state rep in her Palatine-Rolling Meadows area. Trevor spent only $39,199 in the primary, and beat Sam Kukadia by 1,869 votes. Her prime issue is “better county healthcare services.”

Her path to victory requires (1) a huge anti-Bailey vote coupled with (2) a huge infusion of Pritzker and/or Toni Preckwinkle money, like $500,000-plus, with which to smear Podgorski as a “Bailey-Trump extremist” and puppet in mailers and TV ads (which means another half mil). The Democrats have a 15-2 Board majority, so is electing Trevor worth the cost?

Podgorski, who spent $195,992 in the primary, vehemently disputes the “Bailey drag” premise. He noted Trump lost the district, as is currently configured, by 14 points (57-43) in 2020, and Bruce Rauner (R) by 5 points in 2018, but Pat O’Brien (R) trounced Kim Foxx by 35 points in 2020, Leslie Munger (R) won for comptroller by 4 points in 2016, and Rauner beat Pat Quinn (D) by 18 points in 2014. “It’s not a question of pro-Pritzker Democrats voting for me,” he said.  “It’s all about the non-Bailey Republicans and centrist independents sticking with me. That can be done.” Podgorski expects to raise $350,000.

Should Pritzker make a big money dump it would be countered by Team Griffin, run by billionaire Ken Griffin, who spectacularly flopped in backing Richard Irwin in the primary. They are not currently funding Bailey, so Podgorski would be an agreeable place to put their money.
Podgorski in 2017 founded the Northwest Side GOP Club, a grassroots, precinct-focused conservative Republican group, and works for Ogden & Fry, a market research and polling firm. Their polls, he said, showed him up by 7 points in early August, which projects a 53-46 win, and Bailey down by 13 points, which projects a 57-43 loss. Podgorski is the early favorite for these reasons:

First, he over performed on June 28, getting a hefty 74.4 percent (13,416 votes), while Trevor underperformed, getting 38.6 percent (9,053 votes). She beat Kukadia, owner of a  construction company that sub-contracts a lot of city projects and lives in the 38th Ward, largely because of west suburban turnout. “(Heather) Boyle beat me,” said Kukadia referencing the third-place finisher who reported NO spending (see chart), but cut into his eastern/Chicago base vote; Kukadia spent $156,853.

Second, Podgorski showed his mettle in crafting an extensive ground game with hundreds of in-precinct volunteers. The district has 213 precincts, 43 in Chicago (23 in the 41st Ward west of Nagle Avenue and 20 in the 38th Ward) and 170 in the suburbs, including 7 townships, stretching along the north side of I-90 to Route 53, and the west suburbs south to River Forest. The largest are Maine, Paklatine and Wheeling.

Team Podgorski targeted 13,000 households in the primary, with a minimum of 2 at-door hits, and another 25,000 before Nov. 8.  Third, the Republican base is energized. The Democrats’ 2022 turnout (see chart) was 23,479, while the Republicans’ was 18,074. In 2018 the primary vote was 28,673 Ds to 13,988 Rs.

Fourth, Podgorski’s core issue is public safety, especially what he dubs Foxx’s “soft on criminals” bail-bond and short-sentence policies. “I may not be able to reverse them,” he said, “but I can certainly criticize them” as commissioner “and I will vote against her (office’s) budget.”

And fifth, Podgorski has growing institutional support, brandishing the endorsement of the mayors of Niles, Morton Grove, Rosemont, Elmwood Park and River Grove, as well as Chicago  aldermen Nick Sposato (38th) and Anthony Napolitano (41st). He has the support of CFD firefighters’ Local 2, FOP, and the stagehands, riggers and ironworkers unions. As for Trevor, she did not respond to my requests for an interview.

Outlook: The suburbs are the clear battleground. Podgorski will come out of Chicago up 2-2,500 votes and Trevor her western base by a like amount. Podgorski’s strategy  is active inoculation while Trevor’s is passive expectation. He wants to sell himself before the nasty mailers arrive.  She expects her gender and anti-Bailey vote will suffice. Prediction: Podgorski wins 52-48.

8TH DISTRICT/ LOTS OF LOSERS: In Chicago’s north/near northwest side Latino-majority wards, where Puerto Ricans are the most numerous, a fierce battle for political supremacy raged for 2 decades between ex-assessor Joe Berrios (D) and ex-state Rep Luis Arroyo (D). Both are now gone. The emerging leader is now congresswoman-to-be Delia Ramirez (D), a Woke/Leftist from the Logan Square/Humboldt Park area who defeated Alderman Gilbert Villegas (36th) with 65.5 percent in the June 28 congressional primary. Ramirez is likely off to Washington to join The Squad.

But another emerging community leader is Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (35th), chair of the council’s Socialist Caucus and member of the Democratic Socialists of America in Chicago. While a plethora of aspiring leaders tried to showcase their clout, Ramirez-Rosa proved his in the 8th District county commissioner race. He backed his aldermanic staffer, Anthony Joel Quezada, for the seat and Quezada won with 35 percent over 4 credible foes.

The 8th District is within Chicago, taking in all or parts of 14 wards, the biggest being 1, 26, 30, 31, 35 and 36, with small parts of 32, 33 and 45 (Portage Park south and west of Cicero-Irving). Quezada was clearly the most woke aspirant, invoking Leftist platitudes (these are Web site quotes) such as building a progressive future, compassionate values, addressing poverty/homelessness, protecting our planet, investing in healthcare and creating green jobs. That’s a whole lot of work for his new job. Oddly, he advocated reducing taxes on “working families.”

Quezada  only got 35 percent (see chart), but 65 percent was split among 4 others – incumbent Luis Arroyo Jr., Edwin Reyes (who Arroyo beat in 2014), Natalie Toro and Rory McHale. One candidate alone would have beaten him. But the committeepersons didn’t step up. Clerk of Circuit Court Iris Martinez (33rd) backed Toro, who got 18.5 percent in that ward, to Quezada’s 36.5. Villegas backed Arroyo in the 36th Ward, delivering 33.1 percent. Arroyo’s “ball-and-chain” was his onetime powerhouse dad, arrested by the feds for bribery in 2019. He pled guilty to one count of wire fraud in May and got a 57-month sentence. Alderman Roberto Maldonado (26th) delivered 17.6 percent for Reyes, his onetime protégé, to Quezada’s 36.4.

In Ramirez-Rosa’s 35th Ward, Quezada got 53.7 percent. Give the alderman credit: He’s quite politically astute. Even for a socialist.

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