June 1, 2022
BIDEN, DEMOCRATS FACE ONLY TWO STAGES OF GRIEF -- ANGER AND DENIAL -- IN 2022

The five stages of grief are anger, denial, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

On Nov.  8, the Democrats and the Biden administration will begin the grieving process, but will never progress beyond the anger and denial.

Whatever the ruling on Roe vs. Wade is, Democrats will likely still  suffer losses at the congressional and state levels. Political gridlock will ensue through 2024 and Biden will have to govern by executive orders. And Democrats will neither bargain nor accept their 2022 loss of power.

They won’t pivot and accept the failure of their policies. They will instead double-down, dig-in and begin the relentless process of demonizing the Republicans. They will try to strike fear in their base by raising the specter of the “Return of Trump.”

And as for the Democrats’ agenda, they won’t blame themselves for not enacting it in 2021-22, when they had power. They will blame Republicans for being obstructionist by not passing it in 2023-24. And they will blame history, whining that the president’s party always suffers midterm losses. That didn’t happen in 1934, 1998 and 2002.

A Quinnipiac University poll from earlier last month had Biden’s “approval” at 33 percent. In the 2018 midterm election, which was essentially a referendum on Trump, Republicans lost 41 House seats but gained 2 Senate seats, with turnout at a historic 49 percent. It was 36 percent in 2014, when Republicans gained 9 Senate seats and 13 House seats.

First-term presidents can rebound from huge first midterm losses and win a second term, as Harry Truman did in 1948, Ronald Reagan in 1984, Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2012. Conversely, Benjamin Harrison in 1892, William Howard Taft in 1912 and Herbert Hoover in 1932 all lost, Lyndon Johnson quit in 1968 and Trump lost in 2020. Nobody expects Biden to pivot toward the center, as Clinton did after 1994. And nobody expects Biden to even run, let alone win.

1994: Clinton campaigned in 1992 as a “New Democrat,” positioning himself as a moderate southern governor, not a strident liberal. He beat George H.W. Bush with 43 percent. But then he reneged, tacking Left and passing (with a Democratic Congress) a tax increase and assault weapons ban, permitting gays in the military, and then Hillary proposing universal healthcare.

The push back was swift. Newt Gingrich unveiled his “Contract With America” and Republicans gained 54 House seats (and a majority for the first time since 1954), 8 Senate seats and 10 governorships. Clinton then tacked Right, backing the Republicans’ welfare reforms, Defense of Marriage Act (no legal gay marriages) and telecommunications changes. Clinton beat Bob Dole in 1996 with 49.2 percent.

1890: Beset with the Panic (recession) of 1890, rising populism and the McKinley tariff, Democrats gained 95 House seats in a chamber of 322. That’s a turnover of almost a third. Republicans kept the Senate. Harrison lost big in 1892.

1894: All was reversed just 4 year later, now seen as a realigning election. Grover Cleveland’s (D) ineffective leadership, coupled with the Panic (recession) of 1893 and the lingering War for Cuban Independence, gave rise to bimetallism in coinage, and split the Democrats between silver populists and Bourbon gold wings. Republicans won a record 110 House seats and 2 in the Senate. William McKinley (R) won in 1896.

1910: Progressivism, like populism before it, was the rage. The suffragettes were marching, the monopolies were exploiting and Taft was dithering. Turnout was 50 percent. Democrats won 58 House seats and 7 Senate seats. Woodrow Wilson (D) beat Taft and Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 with 41.8 percent.

1918: An election during a pandemic? That does sound familiar. The Spanish flu was ravaging the U.S. and the world.  Instead of mail-in ballots, most states restricted campaigning to 5 days before the election.  No contact was the goal. World War I had just ended, Wilson was in Europe hawking his League of Nations and “14 Points,” and voters were weary. Turnout was 40 percent and Republicans gained 24 House seats and 6 Senate seats – and the presidency in 1920.

1922: Warren Harding (R) won on a tide of anti-Wilson, anti-incumbent revulsion, much like Roosevelt (1932), Reagan (1980) and Trump (2016). Harding was incompetent and his administration corrupt (as in the Teapot Dome scandal). Democrats gained 76 House seats and 8 Senate seats. Harding would have likely lost in 1924, but died in 1923.

1930: A stock market collapse and Great Recession with unemployment at 24.9 would be a game-ender for any president. Hoover constricted rather that expanded money supply, making things worse. Predictably, Democrats gained 52 House seats and 8 seats and FDR crushed Hoover in 1932. In 1934 Democrats defied midterm trends and gained 9 Senate and 19 House seats.

1938: Good vibes don’t last forever. The New Deal’s transformational shine was dimming. A 1937-38 recession atop the lingering Great Depression, FDR’s Court-packing scheme and purge of conservatives got Republicans a gain of 81 House seats and 8 Senate seats, but FDR won in 1940.

1946: FDR died 2 months into his fourth term. Truman finished WWII gloriously, but post-War dislocations, like shuttering wartime industries and the surge of returning veterans, caused a scarcity of consumer goods and housing, and thence inflation. Truman’s “Fair Deal” went nowhere after Republicans gained 54 House and 11 Senate seats. Truman shrewdly ran against that “do-nothing” Congress in 1948 and won. His Marshall Plan to rebuild and arm Europe set the stage for a 40-year Cold War with the Soviet Union.

1958: Eisenhower was popular, but there was a 1957-58 recession, with inflation and tanking farm prices. Democrats gained 48 House and 11 Senate seats – and the presidency in 1960.

1966: LBJ was a cold warrior and Texan who craved a liberal legacy. After his 1964 wipeout win, with huge majorities, Johnson enacted Medicare, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. His Great Society funded anti-poverty programs and also the Vietnam War, causing inflation. Republicans won 47 House a 3 Senate seats, and Johnson quit in 1968.

1974: Along came Watergate, the oil crisis, inflation, Nixon’s resignation and the Ford presidency. Also along came an anti-Nixon tidal wave, Democrats gained 49 House and 4 Senate seats, and Ford lost in 1976.

1982: After Carter’s Iran and economic failures, Reagan raised the Fed’s prime rate, crippling the housing market, and imposing “supply side” economics.  Democrats gained 24 House and one senate seat. That recession cured inflation and by 1984 prosperity had returned and Reagan won.

2006: After his “mission accomplished” in the Iraq War proved fleeting and 9/11 heroics dimmed, Bush’s popularity waned. The recession of 2007-08 and housing mortgage bubble burst was on the horizon, and a Republican push to privatize social security didn’t help. Democrats won 31 House and 6 Senate seats – and the presidency in 2008.

2010: Obama won comfortably in 2008 and Democrats had congressional majorities. Democrats upped social welfare spending, creating large budget deficits, and passed the Affordable Care Act. The effects of the 2007-08 recession persisted, and unemployment was at 9 percent. As expected, push back gained the Republicans 63 House and 7 Senate seats, giving Republicans majorities.

But Obama didn’t double-down. He had gotten his signature healthcare bill enacted and liberal legislation passed in his first 2 years. So he tacked toward the center, didn’t moan about gridlock, and was easily re-elected in 2012. Don’t expect Biden to do likewise.

2014: With it obvious that Hillary Clinton, not Joe Biden, would be the 2016 Democratic nominee, Republicans were energized for the midterm while Democrats were not. Turnout was 36.4 percent, the lowest since 1942, and they gained 13 House (pushing to an 100-year high of 247) and 9 Senate seats. Democrats stressed issues like income inequality and minimum wage, but Obama fatigue was the key. Trump won in 2016.

2018: America was now a straight-ticket country. The voter’s choice for president is the choice for Congress.  The Democrats’ 41 House seat gain foreshadowed Trump’s 2020 loss.

As is often said, history does repeat itself.

My 2022 prediction: The House is now 221D-209R (with 5 vacancies) and the Senate 50-50. There are 5 Democratic-held Senate seats that could flip in November, and 37 Democratic House seats which were won in 2020 by under 55 percent or where the winner ran more than 5 points behind Biden.

Two key constituencies are in play: Hispanics and independents. They are breaking Republican this year. The next House will be 252R-183D, a gain of 39, and Senate 55R-45D.

This column was published in Nadig Newspapers. If you, a friend or a colleague wish to be added to Russ's BUDDY LIST, and be emailed his column every Wednesday morning, email webmaster Joe Czech at Joe@Nadignewspapers.com