May 25, 2022
MULTIPLICITY OF CANDIDATES WILL DOOM LIGHTFOOT IN 2023 MAYORAL RUNOFF

The difference between 2019 and 2023 is that Lori Lightfoot won the 2019 Chicago mayoral runoff because she was, as contrasted to Toni Preckwinkle, the least-worst choice. And now, as she goes into 2023, which will be a referendum on her governance, she is clearly the most-worst choice.

Ronald Reagan once asked, in a long ago debate with Jimmy Carter, “are you better off today than four years ago?” Does any cognitively-unchallenged Chicagoan think that Chicago is? Every day, in every way, Chicago has become a more-worse city in which to live. And Lori Lightfoot OWNS IT.

Predictably, the mayor will be blaming her shortcomings, also known as failures, on COVID, Trump, a balky city council and the usual Woke litany of racism, sexism, etc. But with the Feb. 2023 primary just 9 months away, Lightfoot should be cherishing every day that remains in her first term – because there probably won’t be a second.

Thus far no heavyweight challenger has emerged against Lightfoot, and none will. Congressmen Chuy Garcia (D-4) and Mike Quigley (D-5) are out, so the field is quite desultory: Past losers Willie Wilson, Paul Vallas, Gery Chico and Ja’Mal Green, plus Alderperson Ray Lopez (15th) and state representative Kam Buckner (D-26). But it doesn’t matter.

What does matter is that there will be enough mayoral primary candidates to aggregate more than 50 percent of the vote, thereby forcing Lightfoot into an April 2023 runoff. That is a really bad scenario for the mayor, because it will be a REFERENDUM, and her opponent won’t really matter. The opponent will be the non- or anti-Lightfoot alternative, and polling says that is a winner.

It should be remembered that in 2019 the mayoralty was open, with Rahm Emanuel bailing amid a whole bunch of “difficulties,” chief among them being the Laquan McDonald cover-up. It was a CHOICE election, with 14 candidates running (see chart), of which there were 3 Black women (Preckwinkle, Lightfoot, Enyia), 3 Black men (Wilson, Ford, Sales-Griffin), 6 White men (Daley, Vallas, McCarthy, Joyce, Fioretti, Kolzar) and 2 Hispanics (Mendoza and Chico). Overall, there were 4 women and 6 Blacks. The most conservative was ex-CPD superintendent Garry McCarthy, who got 2.66 percent (14,784 votes), and the most Woke/Leftist was Amara Enyia, who got 8 percent (44,589 votes).

Demographically, 15.25 percent voted for a Hispanic candidate, 53.49 for a Black candidate, and 31.32 for a White candidate. That’s an accurate reflection of the upcoming 2023 primary:

Lightfoot’s base was basically among the North Side LGBTQ community and anti-police activists; in every Black-majority ward she ran well behind Preckwinkle and Wilson. In a turnout of 556,844, which was barely a third of Chicago’s 1,592,658 registered voters, Lightfoot got 17.54 percent (97,667 votes), topping Toni Preckwinkle (16.04 percent) by 8,324 votes and Bill Daley (14.78 percent) by 15,373. Thus are mayors made.

In the ensuing Lightfoot-Preckwinkle runoff, Lightfoot won 386,039-137,765, getting 73.7 percent. This was not an embrace of Lightfoot, nor a mandate for her policies (whatever they were). She was simply the least-worst choice. Given that Chicago’s population is 2,746,388 (as of 2020), a grand total of 3.55 percent actually VOTED FOR HER in the 2019 primary, and 14 percent actually voted FOR her (or likely AGAINST Preckwinkle) in the runoff.

Polling during 2020’s COVID pandemic showed solid support for Lightfoot’s masking and school shutdown policies, which waned in 2021 according to an October 2021 WGN/Emerson College poll which showed her at a 43/46 approve/disapprove. A January Ogden & Fry poll had a 25/50/25 breakout as to re-elect/remove/undecided.

Any incumbent, be president or mayor, faces an accumulation of grievances, disappointments, irritations and outright failures. Chicago is a war zone, which some in the media have called a “death spiral,” with 97 children shot through May 1, 797 homicides in 2021, and an epidemic of carjackings. People have become fearful to shop in the Loop, and 200 sheriff’s police have been deployed to assist CPD. Lightfoot brought in a new police chief who was supposed to stop the carnage, and has failed thus far.

The city’s $12.8 billion budget has been propped-up by the $1.9 trillion federal American Rescue Plan and $1 trillion infrastructure authorization, with much of the money used to fund city government bureaucracy. Student performance (or lack thereof), public safety and economic/neighborhood development/prosperity will be uppermost in voters’ minds in 2023. Shutdowns may or may not have been effective or necessary, or overlong, but will they (or the longterm consequences) even be remembered? Do voters want 4 more years of Lightfoot?

But can the current gaggle of anti-Lightfoots assemble more than 280,000 votes? Turnout was 573,526 in 2015 runoff, when Emanuel beat Garcia 319,545-253,981. Turnout was 590,110 in 2011, when Emanuel won his first term with 55.3 percent (326,331 votes) in the primary. In past primaries turnout was 456,747 (2007), 465,910 (2003) and 596,480 (1999), when Rich Daley won. Turnout was higher in 2015, 2011, and 1999 than in 2019. The 2023 field consists of:

WILLIE WILSON: Wilson, age 73, built his wealth through 5 McDonald’s franchises (since sold) and a medical supplies company, which lately manufactured COVID masks. He is a multi-millionaire and has paid for free gas at Chicago stations on certain days. At $80-a fill-up, that’s a lot of money. He ran for mayor in 2015 and got 50,960 votes (10.66 percent) and then again in 2019, getting 59,077 votes (10.61 percent), winning a plurality in 13 of 18 Black-majority wards, with 5 backing Preckwinkle. Lightfoot finished third or worse in those 18 wards.
Wilson ran for U.S. Senator in 2020 as the “Willie Wilson Party” candidate, getting 4 percent statewide, but 16.5 percent in Chicago Black-majority wards. In 2023, Wilson could pull up to 15 percent.

RAY LOPEZ: Lopez, age 43, is emerging as the 2023 law-and-order candidate. He represents the Hispanic areas of Englewood, Brighton Park and Gage Park and has been a frequent Lightfoot critic, and appears regularly on FOX News when they have a segment highlighting Chicago’s crime explosion. But Lopez lacks gravitas, money and organization. In 2023, with FOP’s endorsement, Lopez is worth 15-19 percent.

PAUL VALLAS: He is sort of like the perpetual bridesmaid who never becomes the bride. Vallas, age 69, was Daley’s chief-of-staff, CPS CEO from 1995-2001, candidate for governor in 2002 (getting 34.47 percent in the Democratic primary, losing to Rod Blagojevich by 457,191-421,728), moving on to be Philadelphia’s school superintendent, and then back to Illinois as Pat Quinn’s (D) 2014 running-mate for lieutenant governor. They lost.

In 2019 Vallas ran for mayor and got 5.43 percent. In 2023 he’ll be lucky if he doesn’t do worse.

KAM BUCKNER: Born in Louisiana, Buckner, age 37, has been a state rep since 2018, representing South Side Bronzeville, Kenwood and part of Hyde Park. Lightfoot has done nothing to ingratiate herself to the alderpersons/committeepersons in the South Lakefront, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th wards (including Preckwinkle), nor to the Black community in general. Buckner, if he consolidates that Black voter base and raises campaign cash, can easily get 20-25 percent.

The outlook: Lightfoot had $1,725,583 on-hand as of March 31, but money can’t sell a flawed product. There is significant Lightfoot Fatigue in Chicago. Will there be enough primary votes to force her into a runoff? If that occurs, she will lose.

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