May 18, 2022
WARD REMAP "FIASCO" NO IMPEDIMENT FOR VILLEGAS, BUT WOKESTER RAMIREZ WILL BE

The difference between a mistake and a fiasco is that a mistake involves poor judgment, whereas a fiasco is the consequence of somebody else’s poor judgment. A “fiasco” is defined as something that ends in a complete failure.

There are going to be a number of 2022 Illinois congressional contests where mistakes devolve into fiascos and end in failure.

These days Alderman Gilbert Villegas (36th) is skating in that gray area between the two. Ex-Marine Villegas is the chairman of the City Council’s Latino Caucus, was Mayor Lori Lightfoot’ floor leader, and was champion and lead advocate of the now-defunct ward remap, which was supposed to add two more Latino-influenced  wards, from 14 to 16, but added none. Instead, his 36th Ward was gerrymandered in such a fashion that it now will run along Grand Avenue from Sayre and Belmont on the Northwest Side to just a few blocks west of Ashland Avenue, not far from the west Loop.

Villegas is also running for Congress in the new 3rd District, which has a Hispanic population of 47.1 percent but a voting population of 28.2 percent. White voters constitute 63.4 percent. He has packaged himself as a “pragmatic progressive” touting his with proven leadership skills and opposition to police defunding. In contrast, his chief rival is state Representative Delia Ramirez (D-4), an unabashed “woke” progressive whose views mirror those of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren (who has endorsed her) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (a/k/a AOC) and her Squad.”  Her slogan is “Rooted and Ready.”

FEC filings through April 30 show Villegas with under $600,000 on-hand, and Ramirez with $321,179. Other filings dating back through mid-2021 show Villegas raised a total of $781,979 through April 30. That will pay for an avalanche of direct mail and TV time over the next 40 days.

The primary is June 28, the same day as the council’s two maps were supposed to be on the ballot. The Coalition Map, created by the Latino Caucus had the backing of 15 alderpersons, while the Rules Committee/United Map, created by a coalition of 33 Black and White alderpersons, retained 16 Black-majority wards, one Black plurality ward, an Asian-influenced ward, and a White Loop ward, keeping their number at 18. Self-preservation prevailed and on May 9 ten Coalition Map backers defected, joined the 33 others, and passed the Rules Committee map, avoiding a ballot referendum.

“They caved,” said Villegas of his colleagues. “It’s not my fault,” adding that “they were all looking out for themselves.” There is “no correlation” between that glitch and his congressional bid, he emphasized. Villegas is ambitious. I talked to him in early 2021 about rumors of a 2023 mayoral race, after he quit as Lightfoot’s floor leader. He said he “wanted to focus on national issues,” having joined the boards of National League of Cities, National Association of Latino Elected Officials and Democratic Municipal Organization. The $781,979 he raised during the 2021-22 is mostly attributable to those connections.

One consequence of the June 28 non-referendum is that it frees up a lot of union donor cash for Villegas. The trades will come in heavy for the onetime Teamster, and public sector SEIU has endorsed him. Ramirez’s  donor base are the teachers and transit workers, but especially is the public sector unions like SEIU Healthcare Illinois plus Emily’s List, which bundles nationwide money for pro-choice women. Many Northwest Side groups also endorsed her, including the 38th Ward Democratic Party, whose committeeman is state Senator Robert Martwick.

The new district has a population of about 750,000 and extends from Logan Square to Elgin, absorbing every Hispanic precinct north of Grand Avenue and then continuing along the southern portion of I-294 to Kane County. The actual turnout won’t much exceed 960,000. Ramirez’s base is in Humboldt Park, plus West Town, Belmont-Cragin, Portage Park, Irving Park and Albany Park, where her “wokeness” sells. But that sells less and less as the district moves into Montclare (Villegas’s base) and Dunning in the 36th Ward, then into suburban Elmwood Park, Franklin Park and River Grove in Cook County. It then moves into north and northeast DuPage County, taking in Bensenville, Addison, Wood Dale and Glendale Heights, plus south Elk Grove Village, and then continues westward to Bartlett, Hanover Park, Wheaton, West Chicago and finally terminating in Elgin.  This is not Woke-land.

To be sure, Democratic primary voters are generally more liberal than the norm. But among Hispanics in a neighborhood or suburban setting, who are immigrants or children of immigrants, the “American Dream” is not illusionary.  People want to prosper, build wealth and give their children a better life. Their expectations are to have a nice house and affordable mortgage, have low taxes, safe, crime-free streets, have productive schools, have a good job, and have efficient, non-ideological government.

They do not want condescension, or be told what to think. Ramirez’s goal as congresswoman, as detailed on her Web site, is to “fight” for (1) housing justice, as in affordable housing  subsidized by the government; (2) “healthcare for all,” and (3) “safe public spaces,” (4) “community-centered economic development,” whatever that means, (5) “public education,” which means the teachers’ union keeps running the schools; and (6) “defend the rights and safety of women and LGBTQ,” although abortion is codified and forever legal in Illinois and gay rights are not in jeopardy here.

This stuff telegraphs to wokesters, at most a quarter of the 3rd District.  For the other three-quarters, the bulk don’t even know who’s running, what district they live in, or even that there is a primary. Ramirez would not be palatable. It is Villegas’s job to “educate” these voters, and time is growing short.

Neither candidate is anywhere near being well-known or defined.

To that end, endorsements are critical. Ramirez is endorsed by Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-4) and a May 13 fundraiser was co-hosted by Toni Preckwinkle, state Representative Will Guzzardi, state Representative Lindsey LaPointe and  John Arena, out of all people. Villegas is endorsed by Luis Gutierrez, Susana Mendoza, Cook County Clerk Iris Martinez, the Steelworkers and SEIU, and a slew of elected officials, including several aldermen.

Ramirez’s strategy is to carry her city base by at least 2-1, producing a 10,000-vote swell. Villegas must counteract that by carrying his 36th Ward/close suburban base by 60-40, and then the western suburbs by a like margin. “She’s a purist, a Springfield politician, part of the status quo,” said Villegas of Ramirez. That’s not true. Ramirez has embraced the Left’s “transformative” agenda. Villegas is a more traditional Democrat.

Villegas can win if he goes hard negative against Ramirez, detailing with specificity her philosophy and why it is contrary to voters’ best interests. And he must define himself as the unquestioningly obvious alternative and define her before she defines him.  The race is Villegas’s to lose, but he’s got the money and issues. He needs to fight to avoid another fiasco like the remap blunder.

Prediction: The lower the turnout, like fewer than 45,000, the better for Ramirez. If it’s 50,000, and Villegas spends close to $1 million, he wins by 5,000.

1ST DISTRICT: There are 29 candidates for Bobby Rush’s open South Side seat, a Black-majority district which extends far into the Southwest suburbs to Will County. There is no credible White candidate. The frontrunners are Chicago alderperson Pat Dowell (3rd), businessmen Jonathan Jackson and Jonathan Swain, Rush-endorsed Karin Norrington-Reaves, and state Senator Jacqueline Collins. The early expectation was that Jackson, son of iconic Jesse Jackson and brother of the ex-congressman, would coast on his name. That has not happened.

FEC filings as of April 30 showed Swain with $321,290 cash on-hand, to Dowell’s $297,110, Norrington-Reaves’s $237,112, Jackson’s $129,705 and Collins’ $62,341 – clearly, her campaign is on the rocks. With a turnout of maybe 65,000, divided by 19 Democratic candidates, 18-20,000 is the winning threshold, or just over 20 percent.

Prediction: The Chicago primary vote, about 65-70 percent of that cast, will be fractionalized, with Dowell, Norrington-Reaves, Collins and Nykea McGriff splitting the female vote. Swain is surging as an outsider but Jackson has a lot of connections.

6TH DISTRICT:  Where is Dan Lipinski when you need him? And why is Iyman Chehade still around when you don’t need him? That’s Marie Newman’s plight. Lipinski was the last remaining anti-abortion Democrat in the House, which made him an anomaly and a pariah.

Newman, with massive support from progressives and Emily’s List, lost 46,530-48,675 in 2018, a margin of 2,145, but came back to win 52,384-49,568 in 2020, a margin of 2,816. Her message was simple: Get Rid of Lipinski. But her 3rd District is now the Villegas-Ramirez district. And she and Sean Casten had their districts combined, with the new 6th having 40 percent of her current district and 25 percent of Casten’s DuPage district.

FEC filings indicate that Casten raised $2,688,745 during the 2021-22 cycle, and Newman $1,258,750, much coming from trades unions. But her proven “de facto bribe” to Chehade, as determined by the Office of Congressional Ethics, to give him a job if he didn’t run against her is a fiasco. Casten wins.

This column was published in Nadig Newspapers. If you, a friend or a colleague wish to be added to Russ's BUDDY LIST, and be emailed his column every Wednesday morning, email webmaster Joe Czech at Joe@Nadignewspapers.com