February 9, 2022
TOP 10 MOST FASCINATING 2022 POLITICAL CONTESTS

Legacies here, legacies there, legacies everywhere.

Some legacies, meaning the offspring of the Jackson, Bush, Cheney and Laxalt families, will be on the 2022 ballot, as will a bunch of Trump endorsees and woke leftists – as will the historical legacy of Joe Biden.

If Democrats lose control of the Senate and the House as expected, then the president’s legacy will be that of failure, like Jimmy Carter. Democrats wanted to precipitate societal change and if they don’t get it done before Nov. 8 it won’t happen.

Here’s an early analysis of key developing contests:

ILLINOIS/1ST DISTRICT: Incumbent Bobby Rush is retiring after 30 years in Washington. His district stretches from the South Loop and near south Lakefront to Manhattan in Will County, taking in a bunch of Black-majority southwest suburbs.

The field has formed quickly for the June 28 Democratic primary, consisting of Jonathan Jackson, the son of the Reverend Jesse Jackson and spokesman for Rainbow/PUSH Coalition as well as state senator Jacqueline Collins and alderman Pat Dowell, who folded her bid for secretary of state. Eight other democratic candidates have also declared. The question is whether the Jackson name still has magic.

Gender will be a factor, as almost 60 percent of African-American Democratic primary voters are women. Geography will also be a factor, as Chicago is only 40 percent of the district but will cast 65 percent of the primary vote. Jackson benefits from having two female opponents, and the legal travails of Jesse Jr. and wife Sandi are long forgotten. Aging Jesse Jackson Sr. is a civil rights icon and has a built-in national network of donors, so Jonathan Jackson has instant funding. Outlook: Jackson is the frontrunner.

WYOMING/AT-LARGE: Wyoming’s population is about 579,115, about the size of Rush’s Illinois district. Trump won the state 174,419-56,873 in 2016 and 193,559-73,491 in 2020. Incumbent Liz Cheney is the daughter of the former vice-president (2001-08) and won her House seat 156,176-75,466 in 2016.

Cheney’s service on the Jan. 6 Committee and her criticism of Donald Trump have had repercussions: She got dumped as Republican House Conference chair (the number three leadership post) and was censured by the WY Republican Party. She once said her ambition was to be the first Republican speaker. She will be lucky to just get re-nominated.

There are 262,714 registered voters in the state and 67 percent are Republican, or about 175,000. Cheney, endorsed by former president Bush, has two formidable opponents: lawyer Harriet Hageman, endorsed by Trump, and state senator and gun storeowner Anthony Bouchard.  The most recent poll shows Hageman up 38-18 over Cheney. But Cheney is well ahead in fund-raising, reporting $7.2 million raised through Dec. 31, much from out-of-state.

Outlook: There is a definite “Hate Factor” involved. Trump is the presumptive 2024 party nominee for president and Cheney is viewed by some of his supporters as a turncoat. Hageman will win easily if Cheney stays in the race.  It would not be surprising if Cheney withdraws before she loses and announces a 2024 presidential bid, probably as an independent.

ALASKA/SENATOR: Incumbent Lisa Murkowski is no Trump cheerleader, despite being in a state Trump won with 52.8 percent in 2020. Trump has endorsed Kelly Tshibaka, a former state official, for senator. Murkowski was appointed to her father’s senate seat in 2003 when her father became governor. She was defeated in the 2010 Republican primary but then waged a write-in campaign in the election and won. In 2016 she was re-elected with 44 percent.

Alaska’s population is 739,795, slightly higher than Wyoming’s, with 531,749 registered voters. Like Cheney, the state party censured her for her anti-Trump votes. A Cygnal poll in March 2021 had Murkowski losing 34-19 to Tshibaka. A lot has changed since then. Alaska now has a ranked-choice voting system in which voters pick 1-2-3 among candidates with the winner being whoever eventually gets a majority.

Outlook: It is expected that Murkowski will switch her party affiliation to independent, avoiding the Republican primary. It is also expected that she would be the top vote getter in the Nov. 8 election and still caucus with the Republicans.

MARYLAND/SENATE: Incumbent Chris Van Hollen (D) won his first term in 2016 with 61 percent and Biden-Harris got 67.8 percent in 2020. Yet the governor is Larry Hogan (R) who won his second term in the anti-Trump year of 2018 with 56 percent. MD has a 41 percent minority population so Hogan is a true anomaly.

Hogan is a cancer survivor and COVID lockdown governor; his current approval rating is 63 percent. He is term-limited and is pondering a senate bid. Outlook: If Hogan runs, his popularity and Biden’s unpopularity, even in a liberal state, mean a Republican pickup.

(Editor’s note: Hogan announced at press time that he wouldn’t run for the Senate).
To win Senate control, Republicans must oust Democrats in MD, AZ, NV, NH and/or GA and retain open Republican-held seats in NC, AL, PA, OH and MO, and retain incumbents in WI and IA.

ARIZONA/SENATE: Mark Kelly (D) won with 51.2 percent in 2020, in a state Trump got 49.1 percent (and lost). The border immigrant surge has impacted AZ and polarized the electorate. State attorney general Mark Brnovich (R) has been visible, and sued the federal government on border issues.

There is a large, well-funded Republican field with Brnovich the frontrunner with 20-25 percent and almost 50 percent undecided. A January Data for Progress poll had Kelly up 49-47 over Brnovich. 

Outlook: Kelly is a goner.

NEVADA/SENATE: It is a state in constant flux - people moving in and out, high job turnover, significant immigration filling demand for hospitality/casino/landscaping positions. Trump lost the state by 27,754 votes in 2016, and by 33,596 in 2020. Hispanics are 28 percent of the population, mostly Mexican-American, and the border surge is a real threat to their job security. Expect a pushback – meaning more Republican votes.

Clark County (Las Vegas) sheriff Joe Lombardo (R) is running for governor and ex-state attorney general Adam Laxalt (R), the son and grandson of senators, is running for senator. The incumbent is Catherine Cortez Masto, who won with 49 percent in 2016. Given high population turnover, it is difficult for an incumbent to establish an identity. Masto hasn’t.

Outlook: Two polls in November had Laxalt up 44-41 and 46-42, but a January  OH Predictive Insight poll had Masto up 44-35. That Laxalt is so competitive so early is a bad omen for Masto. An anti-Biden wave will sink her.

NEW HAMPSHIRE/SENATE: The incumbent is Maggie Hassan (D), who beat a Republican senator in 2016 with 48 percent. NH is quite quixotic, swinging with national trends. It has a Republican governor who won with 65 percent in 2020 but an all-Democrat congressional delegation (including 3 women).

The leader in the 5-man Republican field for senator is retired U.S. Army Special Forces brigadier general Donald Bolduc, followed by state senate president Chuck Morse. Hassan has been a reliable Democrat with no streak of independence, so the 2022 will be a straight party-line vote. NH has 955,798 registered voters, of which 31 percent are Republican, 28 Democratic and the rest are undeclared. Trump lost the state in 2020, getting 45.4 percent. Outlook: A Real Clear average of polls puts Hassan up 44-38 over Bolduc. That’s not a comfortable edge.

PENNSYLVANIA/SENATE: Doctor/Senator Mehmet Oz? That’s not an implausible scenario. The TV celebrity, who is a cardiothoracic surgeon and son of Turkish immigrant parents, has, according to the savants on “The View,” gone to the “dark side.” He is running for the open seat as a conservative Republican. His primary competitors are an African-American female veteran, an ex-ambassador, a wealthy businessman and an ex-under secretary of the treasury. Polls show Oz first with about 20 percent and half undecided.

The Democrats face a nasty primary with lieutenant governor John Fetterman opposed by Malcolm Kenyatta and moderate Pittsburgh congressman Conor Lamb. A January Data for Progress poll had Fetterman up 40-12-18.  A December poll by the same pollster has Fetterman beating Oz 44-42. Outlook: Clearly, Oz has room to grow and is exceedingly well known. If Oz wins he will be a Republican superstar.

NORTH CAROLINA/SENATE: The incumbent is retiring (R) and the party cannot afford to lose this seat. Trump won NC in 2020 by 74,487 votes, getting 49.9 percent. Trump has endorsed congressman Ted Budd, who faces ex-governor Pat McCrory and ex-congressman Mark Walker. Trump personally tried to get Walker out of the race. A January Cygnal poll had McCrory up 30-21-8, but had Budd winning 34-33 without Walker.

The Democrat will be former state chief justice Cheri Beasley, who lost her 2020 re-election. Another January Cygnal poll had Budd beating her 37-36 and McCrory 39-37. Outlook: Budd will prevail.

TEXAS/ATTORNEY GENERAL: Land Commissioner George P. Bush, son of Jeb Bush, is the last Bush standing. He’s running for AG against incumbent Ken Paxton and congressman Louie Gohmert. If he wins he’ll be governor or senator someday. Prediction: Bush will win. “Please clap,” as Jeb famously said to no applause when he ran for president in 2016.