December 23, 2020
MADIGAN'S "PROTECTION" RACKET FACING IMMINENT DEMISE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

It's all about the point of view. Is the glass half-empty or half-full? Is Speaker Mike Madigan (D) halfway out the door, or halfway in? Is a Madigan indictment in the federal ComEd case imminent, or has he dodged the bullet already? Or has he just delayed it until 2021?

Is Madigan a leader who protects his majority? That is the Madigan point of view. Or is he a tyrant who is obsessed with control? That is the anti-Madigan POV.

The Democrats lost four Illinois House seats on Nov. 3, but gained three, a net loss of one. With a war chest of close to $20 million-plus, and an anticipated statewide Trump drubbing, Democrats expected to gain four to six seats, pushing their majority to close to 80 (of 118). "We kept our super-majority," meaning more than 70 seats, said State Representative John D'Amico (D-15), who is backing Madigan. "That's what matters."

What really matters is the ComEd investigation, in which the utility giant allegedly funneled $1.3 million in pay and perks to Madigan associates, expecting reciprocity from the speaker. A Nov. 18 indictment of a top Madigan advisor and three ComEd officials, with Madigan referred to as "Public Official A" is ominous. They are charged with bribery, conspiracy and falsifying records. Last July ComEd entered into a "delayed prosecution" agreement, is co-operating in the probe, and will pay a $200 million fine. ComEd allegedly engaged in "influence-buying" by putting Madigan cronies on their payroll.

More ominous is the fact that 19 House Democrats have publicly demanded that Madigan resign as speaker and pledged to NOT vote for him as speaker for the 2021-22 session. The math is simple: The speaker must get 60 votes on the day the House convenes in January. The new party breakout is 73D-45R. The 45 Republicans will all vote for minority leader Jim Durkin. Madigan needs 60 of 73 Democrats, of which 19 are now non-supportive, including Northwest Siders Lindsay LaPointe (D-19) and Will Guzzardi (D-39). State Representative Stephanie Kifowit (D-84), of Aurora, has already announced for speaker. Will all of the 19 vote for her (and against him)? If so, then Madigan is short by 6 votes, at 54.

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has called for Madigan's ouster. Governor J.B. Pritzker said the Democratic Party needed new leadership.

Durkin and the Republicans hold the determinative power. Several scenarios are plausible, and they all will destabilize the Democrats going into 2022:

(1) Republicans could put their 45 votes behind Kifowit, who would need 14 Democrats to be the first woman speaker. There are 38 women among the 73 Democrats, a majority, and it is not unrealistic that five to 15 women could break and vote for Kifowit. That would get rid of Madigan and his money train.

(2) Republicans could cut a deal with Madigan, or maybe just be Machiavellian, casting their 45 votes with Madigan's fifty something, thereby keeping in office an ethically-challenged speaker who could be indicted at any time, with a divided reform-versus-status quo Democratic Caucus ... and whose predicament and/or demise would be a great vote-getting issue in 2022. But that's not realistic.

Or (3) just let the Democrats sort it out and self-destruct.

The fact is that Madigan's credibility as speaker, as well as state Democratic chairman (DPI), has been compromised. It's the same old perpetual pay-to-play that has plagued Illinois for a generation - which is what keeps Democrats (and Madigan) in power. Madigan's plight impacts Pritzker, who is up for re-election in 2022 and needs a united party, the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out to be a success, a non-lockdown and an effective speaker who is not indicted to get a tax hike passed,

Illinois' fiscal situation is grim. The fiscal 2021 budget is $42.9 billion, but sales tax revenues, as well as personal and corporate income tax quarterly payments, have withered. There will be a $4 billion deficit through next June, and likely $4.8 billion in fiscal 2022. That means steep budgetary cuts for "essential services," and a whole lot of delayed payments for Medicaid and other vendors. State law requires a balanced budget.

Unemployment compensation reserves are nearing exhaustion. There are only THREE options: (1) Cut spending by 10 to 15 percent, enraging the Democratic base. (2) Raising income taxes, which won't produce revenue until 2022. And/or (3) getting federal bailout funds from the incoming Biden-Harris administration (which must be passed by Congress).

Pritzker's "Fair Tax" Amendment, defeated on Nov. 3, was supposed generate $2-4 billion from a graduated income tax on "the millionaires and billionaires." Voters didn't buy it.

The looming situation will be a defining moment for Madigan, who for 40 years has made the maintenance of his power his uppermost priority. Madigan has been a Springfield fixture because he protects the special interests and then spends it to elect and protect Democratic members, literally enslaving them to vote as he dictates.

The process is simple: Madigan appoints the committee chairs. Madigan determines which bills pass out of committee. Madigan calls whatever bills he wants before the full body whenever he wants. Madigan assembles his caucus before the vote, takes a vote, and all members are then bound to vote with the Madigan majority - unless they get his permission to vote contrary. If they stray, their money dries up.

Madigan has long been averse to tax increases, believing they jeopardize his majority by giving Republicans an avenue of attack in marginal suburban districts. That's outdated thinking. "Progressive" Democrats like tax hikes to pay for services for the government-dependent class which are invariably borne by the middle-class.

Madigan has mastered the art of "parking," which means putting campaign cash - like $300,000 to $500,000 - in the accounts of his leadership. They, in turn, direct those funds to other Democrats, like Michelle Darbro who was put in place to run against Republican Brad Stephens in the 20th District. That removes any Madigan "connection." The speaker co-ordinates with union PACs and they put their cash where he directs. Four accounts had directly amassed $23 million by mid-2020, plus another $4-5 million indirectly. Also, parking money tends to discourage Republican opposition. Who's going to run against an incumbent with $500,000?

Madigan has been calling to his 73-member caucus. His argument is that he provides "strong leadership," meaning campaign cash, which will be critical in the 2022 cycle, and protection in the 2021 remap. In other words, he won't adversely change Democratic incumbents' districts, and will pack as many Republican areas into as few districts as possible.

One overlooked fact is that Democratic state representatives/ candidates had no Republican opposition in 50 of 118 districts, or 42 percent. Democrats fielded no candidates in 10 districts. So that left 58 districts in play: 24D and 34R. Republicans knocked off four, and Democrats three. Democrats targeted nine Republicans, including Brad Stephens (R-20), Dan Ugaste (R-65), Mark Batinick (R-97), Tom Morrison (R-54), Amy Grant (R-42), Deanne Mazzochi (R-47). All won, even though they were outspent 2-1 to 4-1. The Madigan spin is that he, and only he, can raise the bucks to keep the majority a majority in 2022.

The other spin is that he, as party chairman, can keep the state's Supreme Court 4-3 Democratic majority, with two seats (the 2nd and 3rd) on the ballot in 2022. Justices are elected from districts for a 10-year term, but are retained statewide, needing a vote of 60 percent. Madigan was the issue in the 2020 retention of Justice Tom Kilbride (D), elected in the 3rd District, which stretches east-west from Kankakee to Rock Island. Business groups poured money into ads calling Kilbride "Madigan's favorite judge." Kilbride got 58 percent, 2 percent shy of the 60 percent threshold for retention. Madigan has become toxic.

A 2022 Supreme Court flip to 4-3 Republican is possible. That distresses labor and trial lawyers. Can Madigan be counted upon to deliver?

Multi-millionaire Pritzker will be running in 2022. He spent $150 million to win in 2018, a fifth of that going to party-building. There are a lot of paid party operatives on the ground. If House members defy and/or dump Madigan, Pritzker potentially provides cover and protection (and money).

Democrats in 2018 rode an anti-Trump suburban wave. A bunch of white Republican men were swept out by "progressive" Democratic women. There was some flow-back in 2020. Republicans won back the 45th District (Itasca) seat of Diane Pappas 30,246-26,590, with Seth Lewis, who was attacked in TV ads as "dangerous." Also the adjacent 51st District (Mundelein), with Chris Bos beating Mary Edly-Allen 33,697-32,548.

Republicans unsuccessfully targeted two 2018 DuPage County winners: Anne Stava-Murray In the 81st District (Downers Grove) and Terra Costa-Howard in the 48th District (Glen Ellyn). The latter won 33,340-30,035 against Laura Hois, and the former 33,303-28,628 over Peter Breen, the Republican she beat in 2018. Those were top-tier Republican takebacks.

The "Madigan Method" is to find some shred of negativity, like in the state budget. It has funding for rape kits, breast cancer and Planned Parenthood. A Republican who votes against the budget can be demonized as anti-woman.

Signs seem to point to Madigan being on his way out, but don't underestimate the "Velvet Hammer."