October 28, 2020
"FAIR TAX" WILL LOSE, BUT STEPHENS, FOXX AND BIDEN WILL WIN: HERE ARE 2020 PREDICTIONS
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
In a politician's lexicon there are four egregious lies that are regularly regurgitated: (1) TRUST me. (2) I'm FIGHTING (or STANDING UP) for you. (3) I won't RAISE your taxes. And (4) it's NOT my fault.
And time after time, gullible and/or disinterested voters believe that deceitful drivel - and the political hacks go unpunished and get elected.
2020 could but probably won't be different. Voters may not be dumb and dumber this time around. The plethora of TV ads, mailers and media fabrications may be recognized as intellectually insulting twaddle. But don't hold your breath.
This is my cyclical (2020) and cynical prediction column, where I risk my 47-year cache of journalistic credibility. But it's always been my philosophy that predictive political analysis is like baseball: You don't get a hit unless you swing the bat. And there are always a lot of whiffs.
"FAIR TAX" AMENDMENT (FTA): Illinois' fiscal 2021 $42.9 billion budget, ravaged by COVID-19 drains on unemployment insurance and Medicaid, has a projected $8 billion revenue deficit. The state will run out of money in March and ballooned property tax bills will be mailed in March. You can count on that.
Closed businesses don't pay sales or income taxes, or payroll withholding taxes. Nor do the unemployed or under-employed, or the so-called "millionaires and billionaires" who have already earned/inherited their fortune. Their wealth is buried in corporations, family trusts or offshore accounts. The "Fair Tax" Amendment is not a wealth tax. All are now taxed at 4.95 percent. All would pay a graduated "Fair Tax" tax IF they live in Illinois and IF they have taxable personal income exceeding $250,000. It's easy to conceal or redirect one's personal income, or to switch one's residence.
The "Politicians' Tax Hike Amendment," as it is called by opponents, is all about trust. You can trust that new revenue won't close the $8 billion hole. You can't trust that the likes of billionaire Pritzker and multi-millionaire Madigan won't drop the ceiling to $150,000 or lower. The amendment needs either a 60 percent specific approval vote, or a vote equal to more than half of the total turnout to pass. 2020's statewide turnout will equal 2016's 5,536,424, but there will be a 300-400,000 voter drop-off for the amendment.
Prediction: This should be the "have-nots" plus the "middling-haves" versus the "mega-haves." Ads blare that "97 percent of Illinoisans will get a tax cut." How can it lose? But voters need some vessel upon which to vent their rage and frustration. Voting Republican is out. Voting Biden (or straight Democratic) is insufficient. Rejecting the FTA is a perfect way of sticking it to the political establishment. It will not get more than 55 percent. The biggest loser is the governor. His 2021 tax-hike frenzy, which could come to the tune of more than 20 percent, makes his 2022 re-election problematic, but only if Biden is president.
20TH HOUSE DISTRICT: Can somebody not say that they're fighting for or standing up for something? Not Michelle Darbro (D), the $2 million Madigan-funded Democratic candidate for state representative in the 41st Ward/near northwest suburban district. Her opponent is Rosemont mayor Brad Stephens (R), appointed to replace Mike McAuliffe (R). Stephens is on track to spend $1 million.
Darbro's handlers initially thought that portraying firefighter/EMT Darbro as "rescuing" Springfield was a cute theme. But it engendered much ridicule and backfired. Was she going to "rescue" Springfield from the guy who was paying her fare to get there? Her new theme is that she will "put families first," contrasting herself with Stephens' nepotistic Rosemont regime, which resembles a family business. Don Stephens, Brad's dad, founded Rosemont in 1956, and it has become a business and entertainment mecca. "I bring a unique perspective to Springfield," said Stephens.
Latest polls show Stephens up by about 3 points, which translates into a 1,000-vote margin. Voters have been deluged by 50-plus mailings and a barrage of network and cable TV ads - Stephens's tying Darbro to Madigan and Foxx, Darbro's ripping Stephens for his Rosemont connections and his $269,900 salary. She is not tying Stephens to Trump, as the anti-Trump trend among suburban women is not prevalent here. Trump got 46 percent in the 41st Ward in 2016 and will nudge that up to 55 percent this year. Foxx got 44 percent in 2016 and will drop to the low 30s this year.
Turnout in 2016's $4.5 million McAuliffe-Merry Marwig race was around 46,000, and the 41st Ward was key. McAuliffe won the 41st Ward 10,076-7,794, and the suburbs 13,326-11,304. Madigan's operatives have Darbro walking precincts daily. She adheres to the Madigan Method. Prediction: The Trump-O'Brien vote lifts Stephens while the Biden-Foxx and anti-Madigan connection hobbles Darbro. Stephens will lose the 41 Chicago precincts by 500, but win the 43 suburban precincts by 1,000 - a 500-vote win.
Madigan's majority is 74-44 and an expenditure of close to $40 million will grow it. Republican incumbents Grant Wehrli (Naperville), Amy Grant (Wheaton), Deanne Mazzochi (Elmhurst) and Tom Morrison (Palatine) will lose, and expect an upset or two. The three DuPage County Democratic women elected in 2018 - Costa Howard, Stava-Murray and Pappas - will be re-elected narrowly. Republicans will pick up 2 pro-Trump Metro East (East St. Louis) seats. That gives Madigan a 77-41 super-majority for 2021-22.
10TH SENATE DISTRICT: A bunch of lawn signs proclaim that "Rob Martwick = Kim Foxx." Democrat Martwick, appointed state senator in 2019, had $354,859 on-hand as of Sept. 30, but is spending sparingly and campaigning minimally. That gives an opening to Republican Anthony Beckman, a Norridge cop who is campaigning door-to-door in the district's west end (Stephens's 20th District) and has been endorsed by the Chicago Tribune. (Editor's note: Petitions are also being circulated to create a Law and Order Party in the Norwood Park Township for which Beckman is listed as township supervisor in the April consolidated election.) Martwick's opposition contends he supports Foxx but his 38th Ward organization did not make an endorsement in that race. Martwick does support the "Fair Tax" amendment (he was its architect before Pritzker jumped on it). The Fraternal Order of Police "recommended" that both Martwick and Beckman are "highly qualified."
Martwick won his 2020 primary 17,407-14,568 (52.7 percent). His base is east of Nagle, where he was state representative. The 2020 turnout will be 90,000. Beckman needs to lose by under 60-40 east of Nagle, and win 55-45 in the west. Prediction: Martwick will eke out a 52-48 win. That's why he's not spending a ton of money.
The Democrats' 40-19 supermajority looks firm. They will lose a Peoria seat but win a Yorkville seat.
STATE'S ATTORNEY: This race is all about floors and ceilings, and about separation. How high is republican Pat O'Brien's ceiling? How low is incumbent Democrat Kim Foxx's floor? Probably about 45 percent each. And can O'Brien separate himself from Trump, who lost Cook County by 1,158,659 votes in 2016? Are there 400,000 Biden-Harris voters who are anti-Foxx out there? Foxx won 1,459,087-565,671 (72 percent) in the 2016 election, but got less than 50 percent in the March 17 primary.
Persistent crime and consistent murders in Chicago keep Foxx's prosecutorial policies at the forefront. As of Sept. 30 Foxx had $216,590 and O'Brien $427,326. FOP backs O'Brien. Both are up on TV politically slamming each other. Foxx will win with 59%.
BOARD OF REVIEW: Incumbent Commissioner Dan Patlak (R) won 353,705-327,998 in 2016 and had $222,918 on-hand as of Sept. 30. His opponent is Tammy Wendt (D). She incites little enthusiasm among the party base, had $8,608 on-hand, and is little-known. The job involves hearing appeals from the assessor's property valuations. The Board of Review district includes 70 percent of the suburbs plus parts of the 41st and 19th wards.
Prediction: There is no hook. You can't promise to "cut taxes." It's just two ballot names. Wendt as a woman and a Democrat will win.
PRESIDENT: It's all about the BIG 10 - FL (29), NC (15), PA (20), OH (18), MI (16), WI (10), IA (6) and AZ (11), all won by Trump in 2016, and NV (6) and MN (10), won by Clinton. All are relatively close, with Biden ahead in all but Ohio and Trump behind by 3-5 points in the rest. They contain 141 electoral votes, with 270 needed to win. Trump got 304 in 2016 (Clinton got 227), so he can lose 34. He can lose PA and MI and still win if he takes MN. But if he loses 2 of FL, NC, AZ and WI, it's over. If Texas (38) goes, it's a landslide.
Some believe there is a "hidden" Trump vote, undetected by pollsters, but the huge early vote belies that notion. Americans are angry, weary and motivated. They want to punish somebody, and that somebody is Trump. COVID-19's second wave is a tipping point. The thought of repeating the last 4 years in the next 4 years is intolerable, especially repeating 2020 in 2021. Biden may not be (or have) the cure, but he's the only alternative.
Prediction: Expect a whole lot of battleground states to go for Biden, but not by a whole lot of votes. Biden-Harris wins with 310-330 electoral votes.
U.S. SENATE: As goes Trump, so goes the Republicans' 53-47 majority. There will be negligible split tickets. Trump has nationalized 2020 (as he did in 2018), and the fates of Republican senators in CO, AZ, IA, NC, MT, GA (2), AK and KY are inextricably linked to Trump's share. Likewise for Maine's Susan Collins (R). Trump got 45 percent in 2016, and likely less on Nov. 3. She is trying to position herself as an "independent" and voted against the Barrett confirmation, but opposed impeachment and supported the Kavanaugh confirmation. A Republican wins AL.
Prediction: CO and ME are gone, and KY (Mitch McConnell) looks secure, but the shaky AZ, IA, NC, MT, AK and GA incumbents will lose UNLESS Trump wins their state or comes within 1 to 2 percent. It will be 50-50 or 51D-49R in 2021-22.