October 21, 2020
TRUMP'S POLL NUMBERS AT THEIR CEILING -- MORTALITY, SELF-PRESERVATION WILL DERAIL COURT-PACKING

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

History repeats itself.

Human nature does not change.

But as every astute pollster (and political analyst) knows, election outcomes never repeat themselves. 2020 is not 2016. A Trump win then is not a guarantee Trump wins now.

A poll is a snapshot of public sentiment in a limited sample in the here and now. A series of snapshots can give rise to a perceived "trend," and that gives rise to a media frenzy whereby the outcome is presumed and predicted. Right now the presumption is that Biden beats Trump. Not by much. And that's based on a subjective "sample" which is based on stale demographic data, and probably an over-sampling of Democrats.

According to my pollster contacts, here is what is clearly happening: America is more to the left than it was in 2016, and Trump is more obnoxious than he was in 2016. Trump was the "change" candidate in 2016 and now he is the status quo candidate. And 2020's "status quo" has become unacceptable and intolerable to many voters. Biden, who has been in Washington for 47 years, is now by default the "change" candidate.

What must be understood is that the American electorate changes by 5 percent over every 4 years. In other words 5 percent of 2016's 137,000,000 voters are dead and have been replaced and surpassed by new voters coming of age. There are no more 1980s "Reagan Democrats." Most of them are dead or in nursing homes. Demographically the Trump base is diminishing and the anti-Trump (Democratic) base is surging. In actuality many more 2016 Trump voters, particularly suburbanites, are defecting to Biden than are 2016 Clinton voters embracing Trump.

Trump's White House strategy has been to solidify his 2016 base. But he has not grown his base. And the 2020 turnout will be in the 142 to 145 million range. That is why he will lose.

Polling in Illinois, for example, shows significant Trump erosion between both upscale collar county suburbanites and among seniors, where his vote could be down 5-10 percent. "The coronavirus has really scared older voters and has really affected the quality of their lives," said an Ogden & Fry pollster. "Their lifestyle isn't what it used to be, and Trump is getting the blame." Also, a lurch under Biden towards socialism and higher taxes doesn't concern them. Nor does the $26 trillion national debt and the $3 trillion deficit. They won't be paying for it. But they ignore the likelihood that their stock market portfolio, IRA and 401(k) may tank in a Biden administration.

Trump must counteract these losses by making gains elsewhere. He likely won't get younger urbanites, Millennials or whomever else is "woke" these days, but they are concentrated on the coasts and New England. In Illinois, observed the pollster, Trump is making some inroads among Hispanics and Blacks - but definitely not by enough. Trump's African-American support is creeping up from 12 to 17 percent. The latest O&F poll shows Pat O'Brien (R) getting 20 percent of the Black vote against state's attorney Kim Foxx (D), and is currently trailing her by 6 points. Law-and-order (or lack thereof) is the reason. About 27 to 32 percent of the Hispanic vote will go for Trump/O'Brien, said the pollster. Third-generation Hispanics, he said, are assimilated, middle-class and materialistic. "They see the Democrats as much too liberal and against their interests."

National polls consistently show Biden/Trump in the range of 50/48 to 45/42. The margin of error is +/- 3 percent. Biden is near or at 50 percent in battleground states. Polls also show Trump's approve/disapprove at around 48/50, some as low as 45/54. Recent "direction of country" polls are a negative 28/65, 35/65 and 27/63.

Two things are clear. First, the "undecided" are only about 5 to 6 percent, and Trump needs three-quarters of them to break for him. (How are they still undecided?) And second, the contest will be decided in ten states: FL (29), OH (18), NC (15), IA (6), AZ (11), WI (10), MI (16), PA (20), NV (6) and MN (10). They have 141 electoral votes, and Trump got 125 of them in 2016, getting 304 votes. The president cannot win in 2020 if he loses FL, MI and/or PA.

In Wisconsin, which he won by 22,748 votes in 2016, recent polls show him lagging 46/51, 44/51, and 44/51. In Florida, which he won by 112,911 votes in 2016, one poll puts him at 48/48, but others show him down at 45/48, 46/48, 47/49, 47/51. In Pennsylvania, which he won by 44,292 votes in 2016, Trump lags at 46/51, 43/46 and 45/47. In Michigan, which he won by 10,704 votes in 2016, one poll puts him at 47/46, another at 43/54. In Ohio, which he won by 446,891 votes in 2016, the latest poll shows him down 47/48. If Ohio goes, Trump is gone.

In North Carolina, which Trump won by 173,315 votes in 2016, polls show him clinging - 49/49, 48/46, 46/42, 48/47. In Arizona, which Trump won by 91,234 votes in 2016, polls show him up 48/44 and down 47/50 and 46/50. In Iowa, which Trump won by 147,314 votes in 2016, polls put him at 49/49. To be sure, all these numbers are within or close to the margin of error, and Trump's deficit has been narrowing, but there has been no break out. And as we know from the 2016 election, polls sometimes don't paint the full picture. Remember? It was all supposed to go for Hillary.

In Georgia, which Trump won by 211,141 votes in 2016, where one-third of voters are Black, he polls at 48/46 and 47/46, with a high of 51/44 and a low of 47/49. In Texas, which Trump won by 807,179 votes in 2016, the latest poll shows him up 50/45. Both states, largely due to the Trump Factor and demographics, are trending blue. And Virginia is getting bluer. Trump lost by 212,030 votes in 2016, and the latest poll has him down 39/54.

Prediction: 2020 has not been a good year. And voters don't want Trump around for 4 more. Trump fatigue is endemic.

U.S. SUPREME COURT: Power is not power unless it is utilized, and Republicans are using their 53-47 U.S. Senate majority to confirm Amy Coney Barrett as a justice. Democrats grouse that the president should make the pick in an election year, but picks were made in 1912, 1916 (2), 1932, 1940, 1972 (2) and 1988. Democrats further grouse that a looming 6-3 "conservative majority" is "unrepresentative" and politically incorrect. That's the pretext for the Left's "court-packing" proposal: Add more justices - 2 or 4 - and there will be a "liberal majority." Never mind elections. Had Clinton won in 2016 the High Court would now have a 6-3 "liberal majority."

Election outcomes affect Court composition. Majorities ebb and flow. Mortality takes a toll; a lifetime appointment only lasts a lifetime. A party's longevity in the White House affects the partisan and ideological make-up of the Court. Majorities depend on who is president. Wilson (D) served 8 years and made three picks. Harding/Coolidge/Hoover (R) served 12 years and made eight picks. Roosevelt/Truman (D) served 20 years and made 13 picks. Eisenhower (R) served 8 years and made five picks, including Earl Warren (R), who emerged as a champion of civil rights and voting rights. Justices once appointed are not always predictable. Republicans grouse that Bush-appointed Chief Justice John Roberts is becoming "Warrenized."

Kennedy/Johnson (D) served 8 years and made four picks. Nixon/Ford (R) served 8 years and made five picks, including Warren Burger to replace Warren as Chief Justice. Carter (D) served 4 years and made no pick. Reagan/Bush (R) served 12 years and made five picks, including Clarence Thomas in 1991 and Sandra Day O'Connor in 1981. Clinton (D) served 8 years and made two picks (Breyer and the late Ginsburg).

George W. Bush (R) served 8 years and made 2 picks (Roberts and Alito). Obama (D) served 8 years and made two picks, (Sotomayor and Kagan). And Trump (R) has served one term and made three picks (Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett).

The Democrats' current line of attack on Barrett is that, if confirmed, she will dismantle the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, and repeal abortion rights guaranteed by 1973's Roe v. Wade decision. That is just anti-Trump campaign propaganda, a scare tactic to energize the liberal base and donor base.

That won't happen. Court packing won't happen. History will repeat itself.

In 1937 the Supreme Court consisted of the much-disparaged "9 Old Men," sometimes called "The Ancients," Republicans appointed 1921-32, all then in their 70s and 80s. It was a 9-0 conservative majority and it struck down numerous parts of FDR'S congressionally enacted New Deal. After his massive 1936 re-election, FDR had two choices: Wait for the Ancients to die, or expand the Court to 13 and pack it with pro-New Deal liberals. He chose the latter, and he failed. Democrats had congressional majorities, but suddenly the Ancients stopped blocking the New Deal. Packing fizzled, Republicans won big in 1938, mortality prevailed, and a FDR appointed 9 justices between 1937 and 1943.

Biden has promised to appoint an African-American woman to any vacancy. Justices Thomas and Breyer are ages 72 and 82, respectively.

Justices aren't supposed to be political.

But they know the art of self-preservation. They don't want dilution. And that means not voiding ACA or Roe. Without a pretext there will be no packing.