December 11, 2019
PETITION CHALLENGE PARALYZES CAMPAIGNS OF FOXX AND CABONARGI
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
An enduring adage states that "Blessed are those who expect nothing, for they shall not be disappointed." A corollary political adage is that blessed are those who have somebody to get them a whole bunch of nominating petition signatures, for they shall get on the ballot.
As is now demonstrably clear, 2020 countywide Democratic candidates Kim Foxx and Mike Cabonargi are not feeling blessed. In fact, they are probably feeling angry, paranoid and downright disgusted. Both were the slated candidates for the state's attorney and Clerk of Circuit Court, respectively. Both were on the same nominating petition. Each gave the Democratic Party $40,000 to get the necessary minimum of 7,279 signatures, as well as to be on the party sample ballot and have a countywide mailer.
And both are now in serious jeopardy of being knocked off the March 17 primary ballot due to an insufficient amount of VALID signatures. The duo filed petitions with about 20,000 purported signatures.
Should such occur, the blame lies squarely on the Cook County Democratic Party, its chairwoman Toni Preckwinkle, Foxx's enduring unpopularity, and Cabonargi's misjudgment in allowing himself to be conned by party leaders into being on the same petition with Foxx. Cabonagi was told, according to party sources, that conjoining his name with Foxx's was necessary to get white Chicago and suburban committeemen to circulate for her, and for African-American committeemen to circulate for him. It was a total hoax.
Incumbent Foxx and Board of Review Commissioner Cabonargi were slated in June, and the 90-day circulatory began Sept. 4, with filing between Nov. 25 and Dec. 2. The rule-of-thumb is that half to two-thirds of signatures are invalid, particularly those procured outside of food stores and in shopping centers, either because the signer is not a registered voter, does not live at the address indicated, or the signature is unrecognizable. Procuring signatures door-to-door is the best method. But there are 2.9 million registered voters in Cook County, so finding 7,279 valid signatures, or 0.0025 percent should be a snap, especially with a Democratic "committeeperson" in 50 wards and 30 suburban townships. Just 500 from each would amount to 40,000. Back in the day 50,000 was normal.
"Three times the minimum" signatures "is the norm," said state Senator Rob Martwick (D-2), the 38th Ward committeeman. But given that Foxx was on the petition, 20,000 signatures was probably the ceiling. Martwick's organization DID NOT circulate Foxx-Cabonargi petitions. And that, amid other instances of non-production on Nov. 22, created Democratic panic over the weekend of Nov. 23 to 24, with paid workers hitting shopping centers and churches, getting paid $1 per signature.
Not surprisingly, the Foxx-Cabonargi petitions were "a mess," said attorney Jacob Meister, "filled with forgeries, circulator fraud" and, he added, a bunch of circulators "who work for Cabonargi" at the Board of Review were busy that last weekend. Meister is running against Cabonargi for the Clerk of Circuit Court, along with state Senator Iris Martinez (D-20) and attorney Richard Boykin. His campaign legal team challenged nearly 16,000 Foxx-Cabonargi signatures, or 80 percent, many on a "pattern of fraud" pretext, which means two or more "not in own proper person" signatures (meaning forgeries) on two or more petitions submitted by the same circulator means every signatory of the circulator is invalidated. "The (county Democratic) party failed," said Meister. "It can no longer do what it is supposed to do - get candidates on the ballot, then nominated and elected." Meister filed his objections Dec. 9.
Bereft of the likes of Ed Burke, Dick Mell and Joe Berrios, the Preckwinkle-led party proved itself borderline incompetent. Of course, it is still possible that Foxx-Cabonargi can win on March 17. It is possible.
A second objector's challenge was also filed Dec. 9 by Robert Fioretti, who is running against Foxx along with Donna More and Bill Conway. Conway's legal team apparently did the research, but Fioretti is the objector, according to sources.
The objectors face a daunting task: 7,279 is 36 percent of 20,000, which means that if all 16,000 objections were sustained then Foxx-Cabonargi would be at 4,000, and off the ballot. That won't happen. If 75 percent of 16,000 objections were sustained then Foxx-Cabonargi would be at about 8,000. So the duo needs, atop their unchallenged 4,000 signatures, just 3,279 of the 16,000 objections, or 20.4 percent, to be overruled, just one in five. But what is happening is what the objectors want: campaign paralysis, with a slowdown of campaign cash, a stoppage of TV ads, publicity about the campaign's competence, and wastage of a whole lot of time and lawyer's fees.
The objection process begins Dec. 16, with hearing officers assigned to each case. Issues will be either legal or factual, meaning either a flaw in the petitions themselves, notarization or the candidate's eligibility, or with the signers or circulators. In the latter, the county clerk and Chicago Board of Elections must do a "records examination" to ascertain the validity - registration at a residence in Cook County - of 16,000 objections. That takes a lot of time. Then the lawyers can object to any determination, and force the candidate to physically produce a signer or circulator at a hearing. All the objector has to do is get Foxx-Cabonargi under 7,279. Then comes an appeal to the Circuit Court by whoever loses, and then an expedited appeal to the state Supreme Court by whoever loses. And now it's mid-February.
The political fallout is twofold: First, the pall inhibits donors from contributing. Why give money to somebody not yet on the ballot? And second, negative publicity shakes confidence that the candidates are competent. If you can't get 8,000 good signatures in 90 days from a pool of 2,900,000, then maybe you can't the job. Cabonargi's political smarts are in serious doubt.
Outlook: Cabonargi has $578,022 on-hand and Foxx has $757,790 on-hand. They will pay the same lawyers to defend the same petitions. In all likelihood they will prevail and get on the ballot. But this emerging fiasco has damaged their credibility and catapulted Conway and Meister to front-runner in their races.
ILLINOIS SUPREME COURT: The Democrats' 4-3 majority is not at risk in 2020, so issues such as reapportionment, tort reform, right-to-work and ballot access will be in safe hands post-2020. The upcoming primary has seven candidates - white candidates Margaret Stanton McBride, Shelly Harris and Daniel Epstein, black candidates P. Scott Neville, Nathaniel Howse and Cynthia Cobbs, and one Hispanic candidate Jesse Reyes. The reason that's important is that racial identity, gender, geography and voter base, money and party and bar endorsements will be critical, especially since a larger share of voters understand that a Supreme Court justice is more important than a lower court judge. With a large field, 25 to 30 percent will be enough to win.
Neville is the slated candidate and appointed incumbent, elevated from the Appellate Court to replace retired justice Charles Freeman, who wanted Howse, an Appellate Court justice. Neville's base is among South Side black committeemen, including Preckwinkle, and his donor base is among upscale African-Americans. Neville has $150,631 on-hand. Cobbs, also an Appellate justice, has a base in the south suburbs. She has $114,211on-hand. Howse is struggling to find a base, is hitting churches hard, and has no cash on-hand as of Sept. 30. The black primary vote will be 33 to 36 percent, so Neville to win needs two-thirds of that vote plus 10 to 12 percent of the non-minority vote, so party endorsement plays a role.
Reyes is an Appellate Court justice, and won his seat in 2012 in a multi-candidate race. No Hispanic committeemen supported Reyes at 2019 slatemaking. He has $167,963 on-hand. The Hispanic vote is 8 to 10 percent, but Reyes has shown great appeal.
McBride and Harris are Appellate justices. McBride is an Irish-surnamed woman, always an advantage. She has $307,019 on-hand. Harris is a well-heeled former personal attorney lawyer, and court records list his name as "Sheldon." He pulled his androgynous stunt in 2018 to win his Appellate seat, spending $1 million on TV ads and never once showing his picture. He will do likewise in 2020, and is poised to spend $1.5 million. He will self-fund. Epstein has been a lawyer for less than 10 years, has $280,357 on-hand, but is not credible. The white vote comprises 50 to 55 percent in the primary, which will be augmented by a huge turnout of white liberals in the presidential race. Turnout was 1.5 million in the 2016 primary, and will hit 1.8 million on March 17.
Outlook: Neville, McBride and Reyes have been found "highly qualified" by the bar associations. Voters will nevertheless be ill informed about the candidates and their credentials, so expect a woman (and Harris) and a minority (Reyes) to pull in 15 to 18 percent each. That leaves a clear path for Neville, if he consolidates the African-American vote.
APPELLATE COURT: There are two vacancies and two white men were slated - appointed justices John Griffin and Michael Hyman. Circuit judge Sharon Johnson opposes Griffin. Hyman is opposed by Circuit judges Sandra Ramos, who is tied closely to the Martinez campaign, and Carolyn Gallagher, first elected in 2018, plus Patricia O'Leary. Outlook: Of the two appointees, Griffin has the better chance, but Hyman could win if Ramos, Gallagher and O'Leary split 65 percent. Expect a Ramos upset.
10TH SUBCIRCUIT: There are three vacancies, the most recent coming after the Dec. 2 filing deadline. A special new 5-day filing period is mandated. No one has yet been slated. Circulating are Deidre Baumann, Audrey Cosgrove, Stene McKenzie and Daniel Trevino, according to a committeeman.