January 30, 2019
PRECKWINKLE'S PLUNGE WILL IMPACT ALDERMANIC RACES IN BLACK WARDS
2019 is not 1983. And Toni Preckwinkle is not Harold Washington.Feb. 26, both in the mayoral and aldermanic contests, will exhibit no signs of an African-American outpouring for CHANGE. Preckwinkle is bunched around 10% in polls, along with Daley and Mendoza. That means black voter turnout may be much lower than expected, impacting aldermanic races in the 18 black-majority wards, where there are 609,743 registered voters. Wsshingon got 434,246 votes in those wards in 1983. Emanuel got 229,919 votes in those wards (57%) in the 2015 runoff. ATTACHED IS A CHART reflecting black voting history over the past few cycles. A low black turnout on 2/26 means a Daley-Mendoza runoff on 4/2, and the re-election of at least 16 of 17 black incumbents. Full Article...
January 23, 2019
RABID, ROBUST AND TEPID "PROGRESSIVES" BATTLE IN LAKEFRONT WARDS
The SOCIALISTS are coming! The SOCIALISTS are coming! No fewer than 25 self-described "democratic socialists" are running for Chicago alderman in 2019, and they -- and the city's tiny contingent of Republicans -- will have an impact on the Fe. 26 mayoral contest. Bernie Sanders got 320,000 votes in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, or 45%, which indicates a hefty number of leftists, and Donald Trump and Bruce Rauner got 135,000 Republican votes in 2016 and 2018. Those voters have to go somewhere. Turnout will be around 950,000, and, with 17 candidates, 20% -- or about 190,000-210,000 votes -- will be enough for a runoff spot. The FRINGES matter. Also, Toni Preckwinkle is dropping like a rock. Full Article...
January 16, 2019
THE FRINGE -- "DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS" AND REPUBLICANS --WILL IMPACT 2019 CHICAGO MAYOR RACE
The SOCIALISTS are coming! The SOCIALISTS are coming! No fewer than 25 self-described "democratic socialists" are running for Chicago alderman in 2019, and they -- and the city's tiny contingent of Republicans -- will have an impact on the Fe. 26 mayoral contest. Bernie Sanders got 320,000 votes in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, or 45%, which indicates a hefty number of leftists, and Donald Trump and Bruce Rauner got 135,000 Republican votes in 2016 and 2018. Those voters have to go somewhere. Turnout will be around 950,000, and, with 17 candidates, 20% -- or about 190,000-210,000 votes -- will be enough for a runoff spot. The FRINGES matter. Also, Toni Preckwinkle is dropping like a rock. Full Article...
January 9, 2019
GARCIA, ARROYO BATTLE TO BE NUMERO UNO
Joe Berrios is defeated and forgotten. Luis Gutierrez is off to meddle in Puerto Rico's politics. But in Chicago a battle is raging between US Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-4) and St. Rep. Luis Arroyo (D-3) to be the NUMERO UNO of Hispanic politics. The first skirmish will be the 2019 city elections, particularly the aldermanic contests. There are multiple subtexts: Mexican-American (Garcia) vs. Puerto Rican (Arroyo), South Side (Garcia) vs. North Side (Arroyo), "progressive" (Garcia) vs. machine-building (Arroyo), with sub-subtexts of gender, sexual orientation and ideology in the ward races. Hanging over it all is the 17-candidate mayoral contest, and the possibility that a Hispanic woman, Susana Mendoza, could win. There are 15 Hispanic-majority wards, but 3 have white aldermen. Garcia is focused on 4 South Side wards: 14, 15, 22, 25. He especially wants to beat Ed Burke. Arroyo is focused on 3 North Side wards: 26, 30, 31. Full Article...
January 2, 2019
2018 LOCKDOWNS, MELTDOWNS HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR 2020
No more split-tickets. In 2018 everybody who was anti-Trump voted for every Democrat on the ballot, and everybody who was pro-Trump voted for every Republican on the ballot. That will carry over in 2020. 40 states are in lockdown mode. They include CA, IL, and NY, and Republicans had a meltdown in MI, PA, VA, NV and NM -- all Democratic. Republicans are still in a lockdown mode in TX, OH, IN, most of the South and non-coastal West. On the cusp are FL. WI, IA, and AZ. Trump won 306-232 in 2016. If he loses more than 36 electoral votes in 2020, he's gone. Full Article...
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