October 31, 2018
ANTICIPATED "BLUE WAVE" COULD BE JUST A BLUE RIPPLE
Political pundits have long assumed that an anti-Trump, anti-Republican "Blue Wave" is building, and that the 11/6/18 election will be a sweeping Democratic victory. Yet Republicans look solid in "red" states. In Illinois, Rauner is a goner, but Democrats will pick up only one congressional seat (Roskam). Nationally, Republicans will GAIN 2-3 US Senate seats, will lose 18-20 US House seats, and will lose up to half a dozen governorships. Here are my predictions. Full Article...
October 24, 2018
'WHO IS FOOLING WHO?' IN 45TH WARD ALDERMAN RACE
Ald. John Arena is the kind of guy who does not suffer fools gladly, and he considers a "fool" to be anybody who disagrees with him. Having won in 2011 by 30 votes and in 2015 by 1,225 votes, there seems to be a lot of fools in the Northwest Side 45th Ward. The 2019 aldermanic field is forming, but no formidable anti-Arena candidate is emerging. Arena's vociferous support of 7 "mixed-use" housing projects with CHA tenants in "affordable" units has inflamed some voters, but Arena is a leftist Bernie Sanders Democrat with a solid base in liberal, upscale Portage Park. The projects, incidentally, are in Jefferson Park. How nice. Arena has an 8-year record, which isn't too bad. He's not quite "unassailable," but he's a heavy favorite for re-election. Full Article...
October 17, 2018
WOMEN, MINORITIES CROWD BALLOT IN 2018 STATEWIDE CONTESTS
Do the #MeToo and BlackLivesMatter movements, as they say, have legs? We will find out on 11/6. Of the 36 governor races, Democrats have nominated a woman in 12, Republicans in 3; of the 35 U.S. Senate races, Democrats have nominated a woman in 15, Republicans in 6. Black Democrats could win governorships in GA, FL and MD, and a senate seat in MS. A gay could be CO governor. We live in an "outraged society," where everything that anybody says or does will be "offensive" to somebody. But that may not translate into electoral victory. Democrats hold 26 of 35 senate seats. They could lose MO, ND, IN, WV, and FL; Republicans could lose their seats in AZ, NV, TX and TN. But the 51-49 Senate will remain Republican, with Republicans perhaps gaining 1 or 2 seats. Democrats will net a few governorships, but the U.S. House is the prize. If Democrats knock off 23-plus Republicans, Nancy Pelosi (D) will be speaker again. Full Article...
October 10, 2018
NO TRUTH, NO CONSEQUENCES IN 15TH, 19TH DISTRICT IL HOUSE RACES
Illinois' pension and vendor debt is at $155 billion. According to the state Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, it will rise to $224 billion by 2027. Yet 2018 candidates offer no plausible solution. Democrats blather that we should "Blame It On Rauner." Republicans want to cu the state income tax to 3% and consolidate and impose efficiencies. In the Northwest Side 19th and 15th districts, where Democratic incumbents Rob Martwick and John D'Amico face, respectively, Republicans Ammy Kessem and Amanda Biela, only Martwick seems to have a grasp of reality. He is proposing a "progessive" state income tax, similar to those in CA, NY, IA. WI, MN and OR. He would scrub the current 4.95% flat tax, and replace it with a 5.84 tax on incomes of $7,500-15,000, 6.27% on incomes of $15,000-225,000 (a 27% hike) and 7.65% on incomes over $225,000 (a 54% hike). Voters aren't listening. Expect Martwick and D'Amico to be re-elected. Full Article...
October 3, 2018
PRIZKER VS. MADIGAN IS THE REAL ELECTION CONTEST -- BATTLE FOR SUPREMACY UNDERWAY
The IL governor's election is over. The question is not whether Pritzker (D) will beat Rauner (R). The question is by how much (probably 800,000) Pritzker wins, and whether Rauner will even crack 30%. In fact, Rauner may be the worst-defeated incumbent in modern Il history, going lower than losers in 1916 and 1948. The real contest is between Pritzker and Madigan, with both Democrats having different agendas. Madigan wants to keep himself in power, and Pritzker will want to enact an agenda, which will necessitate legislative approval, and will include tax hikes. To that end, Pitzker has been spending heavily on "party-building," which means pouring money into Downstate and outlying suburban county party organizations, and black Chicago wards, so that legislators can and will vote with the governor and defy the speaker, knowing that there is an alternative money source. Madigan has been hitting unions hard for cash so as to build up his warchest for 2019-20, but Pritzker has deep pockets, and can checkmate Madigan. The battle for Springfield Supremacy is underway. Full Article...
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