June 27, 2018
ALDERMAN SPOSATO WINNING "WAR OF NON-ATTRITION"
Unlike other public officeholders, Chicago aldermen focus on minimizing attrition and not maximizing addition. An alderman's path to reelection is simply doing something tangible for the constituents, and doing it well and fast. For everybody else, the path to reelection is saying something that is more placating and palatable to the constituents. An alderman's $108,000-a year job is to win the "War of Non-Attrition" - which means providing enough services so as to not dissatisfy enough constituents to get booted out of office. In short, win the "War of Non-Attrition." Full Article...
June 20, 2018
TRUMP'S SINGAPORE SUMMIT "TRANSFORMATION" MAY BE SHORT-LIVED
President Trump's Singapore summit may or may not be a "transformative" event, but there is no doubt that it belies the media-fed image that the president is belligerent, bellicose, ill-informed and a warmonger. The Korean peninsula may not be denuclearized for some time, if ever, but it is start. It also gave the president a political bump, as his "approval" rating is now 46%, which is not bad considering that President Obama never made it out of the low 50s. Transformative events in recent history include the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Cuban missile crisis, the Tet offensive, Nixon & Mao, the Iran hostages, the Gulf War, 9/11, the Iraq War, the fall of the USSR and, to a lesser extent, Obamacare. These events redefined the sitting president. If Trump follows through, Republicans may do better than expected in the 2018 election, and Trump may even win in 2020. Full Article...
June 13, 2018
NICHES, 27% MARKET SHARE ARE KEY TO 2019 CHICAGO MAYORAL RACE
Multiple niches + 27% market share = 150,000 votes = runoff = next Chicago mayor. That's the formula for defeating Rahm Emanuel. A niche is defined as a unique place or position. Politically, there are multiple niches in Chicago, which consist of voting blocs ranging from 3-25%, all of whom vote their self-interest. They include LGBTQ, Republicans, union members, Our Revolution, #MeToo, blacks, Hispanics, feminists, cops and a host of others. The magic number is 150,000 votes, which will get that candidate into the 4/19 runoff with the mayor, who is eminently defeatable. However, all contenders except for Paul Vallas are polarizing, although each has a niche. Here's an early analysis. Full Article...
June 6, 2018
MONEY MATTERS -- PRITZKER SPENDS $62.3 MILLION AND WILL SPEND A LOT MORE
Money matters. J.B. Pritzker spent $62.3 million in his yearlong quest for the Democratic governor's nomination, or about $167,000-per day. Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) has $38.5 million on-hand. ATTACHED IS A FUNDRAISING CHART for the period 7/1/17 to 3/31/18 for candidates in the 2018 primary, 2018 election, and 2019 Chicago election. Mayor Emanuel has just $2.2 million on-hand, while Speaker Madigan has $7.8 million. Ald. Ed Burke has $9.2 million, but that may not save him. In two Northwest Side state representative contests, incumbents John D'Amico (D-15) and Rob Martwick (D-19) have huge fundraising advantages. State Rep. Lou Lang (D-16) once aspired to be speaker, but a recent "harassment" scrum caused him to quit as deputy majority leader, so his $1.4 million campaign kitty is now useless. Full Article...
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