August 17, 2016
ILLINOIS DEMOCRATS' DEEP "BENCH" INSURES MONEY, CANDIDATES
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
by RUSS STEWART
Illinois' Democrats have proven that being politically correct is politically astute, and the path to political victory. Through the process of finding, nurturing, grooming and running candidates who are diverse but electable, who fit the demographics of the area, the Democrats also broaden their donor base.
In political jargon, it's called having a "bench" -- having the right candidate ready at the right time for the right office or district. It calls for foresight. The Democrats have it; the Republicans don't.
The Republicans' epithet as being the "Old White Men's Party" is well deserved, especially in Illinois. Tradition-minded Republican primary voters seek comfort both in a name which is not odd sounding and an ideology heavily skewed to conservatism. Purity is more important than electability.
Not so with the Democrats. Under state party chairman Mike Madigan's dictatorial leadership, the Democrats have reached out to gays and Asians and gotten them nominated for or elected to office. They also have reaped a monetary reward, as many in those groups are affluent, have considerable disposable income, and are disinclined to support any Republican -- especially gays, who view the Republican agenda with outright hostility.
As for other the components of the Democratic coalition, such as white liberal women, Jews, blacks and Hispanics, Democrats often do a two-fer, combining gender with a demographic. The Democrats' "poster people" in 2016 include Tammy Duckworth (an Asian-American woman) for U.S. Senate, Raja Krishnamoorthi (an Indian-American man) for Duckworth's open 8th U.S. House District seat, and Josina Morita (a Japanese-American woman) for one of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District commissionerships. Duckworth brings in a torrent of money from national women's groups, such as EMILY's List, and Krishnamoorthi and Morita tap into their respective demographics. Add to them Mariyana Spyropoulos (a Greek-American woman), the water district president who also is on the 2016 ballot, and the cash spigot flows. All four will be well funded, and each will win.
The Democrats understand "trickle down." When donors "invest," a candidate's visibility increases. Krishnamoorthi, for example, spent $1.5 million in the March primary, running prime time television ads urging people who couldn't pronounce or remember his surname to "vote for Raja." The visibility energizes voters of that demographic, elicits more donations and virtually guarantees that everyone from that demographic who votes will vote for the other Democrats on the ballot. If elected, Krishnamoorthi will become the second Indian-American U.S. congressman, the first being D.S. Saund of California in the 1950s.
However, "diversity" is not limited to tapping into donor bases. For state comptroller, Madigan engineered the slating and nomination of Chicago City Clerk Susana Mendoza (a Hispanic woman). She will easily beat appointed incumbent Republican Leslie Munger. In Cook County, where the offices of state's attorney, recorder of deeds and clerk of court are to be filled, the Democratic candidates, Kim Foxx, Karen Yarbrough and Dorothy Brown, are all black women.
Yarbrough is being groomed by Madigan to run for secretary of state in 2018, when 20-year incumbent Jesse White will retire. It is presumed among Democratic insiders that black politicians "own" White's office and that his successor must be black. White state Treasurer Mike Frerichs, a Downstater, is complicating that scenario, and he could win a primary. If Mendoza wins, Hispanics will thereafter presume to "own" a state office.
Blacks and Hispanics provide more votes that money, but their overwhelmingly Democratic demographic is what keeps white men like Madigan, the House speaker, and John Cullerton, the Senate president, in power, along with gobs of money from the public sector unions and trial lawyers.
As for the LGBT community, Madigan has orchestrated the election as a state representative of two openly gay men and one lesbian woman, which, along with a couple of Cook County judges, thus far satisfies that demographic. However, there will be enormous pressure in 2018 to slate a gay man or woman for major county or state office, with a particular focus on lieutenant governor. If, as expected, Attorney General Lisa Madigan is the Democrats' candidate for governor, a gay man as her running mate would not have to win on his own merits. The two would be elected as a team.
Illinois' new primary system mandates the pairing of governor and lieutenant governor candidates, so the decision of just two people, Mike and Lisa Madigan, is all that it will take. A lieutenant governor is now anointed, not elected.
Madigan and the Democrats have been spectacularly ineffectual with one constituency and demographic, the North Shore 10th U.S. House District, which has a sizable Jewish population. The Democrats raise lots of money from Jewish sources, from Hollywood and well as locally. Mayor Rahm Emanuel, raised $25 million for his 2015 re-election, with a bundle from the West Coast, where his brother is a movie producer. Emanuel now is thoroughly unelectable, and he will be gone after 2019.
The 10th District was once a "Jewish seat," during Abner Mikva's tenure from 1974 to 1979, and it was redesigned by Madigan in the 2011 remap to be a Jewish seat, with Republican areas in west Cook County removed, but, amazingly, Madigan's vaunted recruitment operation failed. After Republican Mark Kirk moved up to the U.S. Senate in 2010, his replacement was Bob Dold, who beat Dan Seals, a three-time loser who is black. Madigan searched fruitlessly for a Jewish woman, akin to Lauren Beth Gash, a state representative who almost beat Kirk in 2000. Instead, the 2012 nominee was Brad Schneider, a klutzy and uncharismatic businessman who won by 3,326 votes and then lost to Dold in the 2014 rematch by 4,856 votes.
Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering ran, but Schneider unimpressively beat her in the 2016 primary 33,348-28,273. Despite the Donald Trump drag, it is conceivable that Dold could win. If Schneider loses again, there will be lots of disconsolate Jewish donors and voters, and pressure will be intense to slate a Jewish candidate in 2018 for state office, such as Lou Lang or Ira Silverstein for attorney general or Dan Biss for treasurer. The last Jewish statewide candidate was Sam Shapiro for governor in 1968.
Being "groomed," however, is not akin to being Prince Charles. For Duckworth, Krishnamoorthi and Mendoza, it has necessitated years of patience, perseverance and ceaseless self-promotion. All have excelled.
Duckworth: A female military hero is hard to find, especially a Democrat. Duckworth was born in 1968 in Thailand, to an American Vietnam War veteran father and a mother of Chinese ancestry. In 1990, while she was at George Washington University, she joined the ROTC, and she was later commissioned an officer in the Illinois Army National Guard. After the U.S. invaded Iraq, she was deployed in 1992 and she co-piloted a Black Hawk helicopter. An Iraqi rocket propelled grenade struck her helicopter, resulting in the loss of most of both legs and part of one arm.
U.S. Senator Dick Durbin recruited her in 2006 to run for the open 6th U.S. House District seat and helped her raise $4.5 million. In an anti-Bush, anti-Republican year, Duckworth narrowly lost to Republican Peter Roskam, a state senator, 91,382-86,572. Roskam spent $3.3 million. At the time, the district was 8.1 percent Asian and 12.5 percent Hispanic. Duckworth ran especially well in northeast DuPage County, in an area including Bensenville, Wood Dale and Addison.
Duckworth then was put back on the bench. She was appointed the director of the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs, and Barack Obama appointed her as an assistant secretary of the Veterans Administration. Meanwhile, back in Illinois in 2011, Madigan drew a congressional map tailor-made for Duckworth, with a west suburban 8th District centered on Schaumburg, with a 13 percent Asian and 26 percent Hispanic population, and including the Hispanic areas of DuPage (Carol Stream) and Kane (Elgin, Carpentersville) counties. Duckworth faced Joe Walsh, a Tea Party adherent who won in a 2010 upset and who moved into the district from McHenry County.
The contest was brutal, with each candidate spending more than $4 million. Duckworth prevailed 123,206-101,860 (with 54.7 percent of the vote), mirroring the 133,208-94,944 Obama-Mitt Romney result. In 2014 Duckworth dispatched Larry Kaifesh 84,178-66,878 (with 55.7 percent of the vote). Kaifesh was going to run again in 2016, but his military unit was deployed to the Middle East. By now, Duckworth has been "groomed," and she is favored to beat Kirk. She is the perfect Democratic candidate: a female war hero who votes conventionally liberal.
Thus far, during 2015-16, Kirk has raised $11,321,067 and Duckworth has raised $10,115,839.
Krishnamoorthi: Try, try and try again. This is his third attempt, and it is the charm.
Krishnamoorthi, a lawyer and a mechanical engineer, lost the 2010 primary for comptroller with 42 percent of the vote and lost the 2012 primary to Duckworth 17,097-8,736 but won the 2016 congressional primary 44,950-22,925-11,005 over a state senator and a mayor. His Republican opponent is Pete DiCanni, a DuPage County Board member. Krishnamoorthi has raised $2,678,458. The result won't even be close.
There are large concentrations of Indian Americans in the Schaumburg area. That is Krishnamoorthi's demographic base, and that is a huge Democratic donor base. Former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Krishnamoorthi early in the race, which demonstrates his ideology and his loyalties.
Mendoza: After 11 years as a Madigan robot in the Illinois House, Mendoza was elected clerk in 2011 and was re-elected unopposed in 2015. At one point, she was thought to be White's successor, but if elected comptroller, she'll hit a glass ceiling.
Send e-mail to russ@russstewart. com or visit his Web site at www. russstewart.com.