December 9, 2015
"FANTASY POLITICS" COULD BE NEXT HOT CRAZE
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
by RUSS STEWART
If in sports there is fantasy football, which is a euphemism for gambling, with FanDuel and DraftKings generating millions of dollars in bets daily during the varying sports seasons, why can't we have fantasy politics?
After all, in Illinois, Cook County and Chicago politics, there certainly is enough intrigue, treachery, drama, duplicity, self-inflicted injury and idiocy to make any gambler salivate.
Here's how fantasy politics would work:
First, pick an election. There is the March 15, 2016, primary, and the November election. There are the 2018 elections, with governor and statewide and Cook County offices on the ballot. Then there is the 2019 Chicago mayoral election. Each will have a separate set of players, although some politicians (such as Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Illinois Speaker Mike Madigan) could be players in more than one.
Second, pick a team. It's not just the Democrats and the Republicans, although the Republicans are relevant -- barely -- only in statewide contests. There are the white Northwest Side, Lakefront, suburban and South Side Democrats, the North Side Puerto Rican Democrats, the South Side Mexican-American Democrats, the South Side, West Side, Toni Preckwinkle and suburban blacks, and the Madigan Party, the Emanuel Party and the John Cullerton Party, all relevant by dint of the fact that they can raise millions of dollars.
Third, pick a player. That would be a politician of great or modest renown who has a personal stake in each election outcome, perhaps even risking his or her own job.
A "scouting report," which details who is performing well, who is "injured" and what chicanery is afoot among the players, is obligatory.
Fourth, pick an outcome in a specific race, with a side bet on who will be the collateral winners and losers. For example, if Anita Alvarez loses the primary election for state's attorney, Preckwinkle is the collateral winner and Madigan, Emanuel and Alderman Ed Burke are the collateral losers. There are a multitude of ward committeeman, state legislative and judicial Democratic primary contests where those who are not on the ballot have a major stake.
Here's the "scouting report":
Rahm Emanuel: The mayor is in "intensive care," with major bruises, contusions, broken alliances and dislocated polling numbers. His toxicity grows by the day. The national media, for whom Emanuel was once a darling, have piled on. "Conspiracy" is the cry relative to the Laquan McDonald situation. Gang murders continue, and the feds will investigate the Chicago Police Department's "culture." The worst is yet to come. Emanuel won't be a player in 2016 nor in 2018. Nobody wants his endorsement, and the odds against him not being mayor after 2019 are 10-1. Don't draft him.
As for the "Rahmster" getting a job in the putative Hillary Clinton Administration? The odds against are 100-1.
Toni Preckwinkle: The Cook County Board president is now the most powerful Democrat in Chicago and Cook County. She rammed through the sales tax hike. She made sure the Democrats dumped Alvarez. She jettisoned Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown when one of her employees began squawking to the feds (and thence was indicted) and picked one of the "South Side Sisters," Alderman Michelle Harris (8th), as her substitute. However, Brown filed 45,000 petition signatures, and she will be on the primary ballot, along with Harris, former alderman Shirley Coleman and Tio Hardiman. That's four black candidates against one white candidate, attorney Jacob Meister. Don't draft Brown. With a divided black vote and Meister's support by white and Hispanic politicians such as Dick Mell, Nick Sposato and Luis Arroyo, Harris's odds are 50-50 and Meister's are 60-40; he could win with 38 to 40 percent of the vote. Draft Meister.
If Harris and Kim Foxx prevail, Preckwinkle will have control of three of the most powerful offices in the county. Then, in 2018, she will field candidates for secretary of state and sheriff. Preckwinkle, age 68, won't run for mayor in 2019, but she will be in a position to ensure that her choice, likely Alderman Roderick Sawyer (6th), wins. Draft Preckwinkle as your fantasy coach.
Anita Alvarez: Unload her now. You don't want her on your fantasy politics team. She's sort of like Todd Stroger, without the charisma. Wait a minute, did Stroger have charisma? No politician wants to become symbolic. That means that he or she embodies an issue which transcends his or her record. Alvarez stalled for 14 months before indicting McDonald's alleged murderer. Her pro-police, politician-protecting, throw-them-in-jail image will be fatal. The anti-Alvarez animosity is palpable and expanding. She will be the scapegoat.
Foxx, Preckwinkle's former top aide who is black, is opposing Alvarez, as is Donna More, a white attorney. Acerbating Alvarez's plight is that she is considered a "Hispanic In Name Only." "The Hispanic media is claiming that there are 10 to 12 Hispanics who are falsely imprisoned due to false testimony or police misconduct," a North Side Hispanic source said. "She promised an investigation. Nothing has happened."
The problem with Foxx is that she will "introduce a racial identity" into the state's attorney's office, much like that of the Illinois secretary of state, county board president, clerk of court and recorder of deeds offices, a white Northwest Side politician said. "Once a black wins an office, it becomes forevermore a black-occupied office," he said. However, white and Hispanic politicians are abandoning Alvarez. Draft Foxx. Her odds of winning are 70-30.
Joe Berrios and Luis Arroyo. By 2019 one of these North Side Puerto Rican bosses will be "El Hombre Grande." Berrios, the assessor and county Democratic Party chairman, is joined at the hip with Preckwinkle. He worked with her to dump Alvarez, and he needs Preckwinkle's imprimatur in 2018 in order to get re-elected. His 31st Ward base isn't what it used to be, having lost his alderman (Ray Suarez) in 2015 and having Chuy Garcia carry the ward, but he is not yet road kill. Arroyo, a state representative and the 36th Ward committeeman, was instrumental in Millie Santiago being elected over Suarez. This is a duel to the death.
Some 2016 skirmishes have already arisen. Santiago scotched a committeeman bid against Berrios because she feared that Arroyo was taking over the ward. Berrios prompted Mary Theresa Gonzalez to file for committeeman in the 1st Ward, against alderman and Arroyo ally Proco Joe Moreno, and he allied with Vilma Colom and Iris Martinez to recruit firefighter Joaquin Vasquez to oppose Arroyo. In the 6th Subcircuit judicial races, Berrios is backing Evie Delarosa for one vacancy, against Moreno ally Ricardo Lugo, and Arroyo is behind the slated Carlos Claudio for another vacancy, against appointed incumbent Anna Loftus, who has not yet gotten Berrios's support but who probably will.
Lisa Madigan. She's a future winner for something, such as governor in 2018, mayor in 2019 or senator in 2020. Madigan's problem is not being eager, articulate and presentable, it's her father's anchor. How can Lisa Madigan plausibly run to "clean up the mess in Springfield" when Mike Madigan is part of it? The attorney general is not a risk taker, but her call for a federal investigation of the Chicago Police Department distances her from Emanuel.
If Mike Madigan continues to tenaciously grip the speakership, as is evident, Lisa Madigan cannot be the governor. The speaker's modus operandi is not to solve problems, but rather to delay them. He won't raise taxes, as that would jeopardize his 71-47 House majority. He wants to be speaker for life. Having his daughter as governor would not be helpful to that goal, and voters would resist giving so much power to one family.
However, Lisa Madigan would be a formidable candidate for mayor. She is well known, well liked, a woman, and an outsider not tied to any Chicago controversies or to the mayor. She's the only white politician who could beat Sawyer. Draft her for 2019.
Bruce Rauner: The Democrats are agog at the governor's abysmal poll numbers. His approval rating, according to union sources, is barely 30 percent in polling. "He can't win," one union operative said of the 2018 election. Not true. The approval rating of the General Assembly is just as abysmal, Rauner can raise $100 million, and he can plausibly blame the Democrats for the gridlock. "I didn't raise taxes. I didn't boost spending." That mantra will ensure Rauner a solid 45 percent of the vote, with room to grow. Rauner's odds for a second term: 50-50. Draft Rauner.
Absent Lisa Madigan, the Democrats have a bunch of second-tier, ill-funded contenders, the most credible being state Treasurer Mike Frerichs. Preckwinkle could run, but that would mean forfeiting her county job. Sheriff Tom Dart could run, as could U.S. Representative Cheri Boustos (D-17), a fresh Downstate woman with no ties to Springfield, as well as a batch of obscure state legislators dependent on Madigan and Cullerton for funding. Draft Boustos; ignore Frerichs.
Jesse White: White is retiring as secretary of state, and Chicago blacks are angling for his job. Both Recorder of Deeds Karen Yarbrough and Alderman Walter Burnett (27th) want the office, but a white Downstater could win it.
Send e-mail to russ@russstewart. com or visit his Web site at www. russstewart.com.