September 30, 2015
SCHNEIDER USING IRAN DEAL TO GET OBAMA SEPARATION, BEAT DOLD

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

by RUSS STEWART

Hell hath no fury like aged, ancient self-righteous politicians scorned. When former 10th District congressman Brad Schneider (D), noted more for his timidity than toughness during one unremarkable term in Washington, had the temerity to criticize and oppose the Obama Administration’s Iran nuclear deal, a firestorm erupted on the North Shore. How dare he?

“He’s abandoned the president,” groused former U.S. Senator Adlai Stevenson (D), who last ran for office in 1974 and doesn’t live in the district. Schneider, he said, has jeopardized “global security” and “American authority.” Nary a word about Israel’s “security”? Or the fact that Iran, despite the “deal” and inspections, will still be able to nuke Tel Aviv by 2030.

Stevenson endorsed Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering, as did another wheezing warhorse, former U.S. Representative Abner Mikva (D), who was last on the ballot in 1978. America “needs more statesmen and fewer politicians,” Stevenson opined. What he really meant is that America needs more accomodationist Jewish officials who disrespect Israel, ignore the Muslim world’s jihad, support Palestine’s claims to nationhood and Israeli territory, and don’t want to militarily eradicate Islam. Let’s all be friends.

Among the media and university elite – and among a lot of U.S. Jews --- Israel is disdained as militaristic and nationalistic. Muslims are lamented as a “dispossessed” people, “victimized” by the “warmongering” Israelis, who have “colonized” the Middle-East and are an “occupying power.”

People forget that Israel is a tiny country, not much bigger that New Jersey, with a population of 6 million surrounded by over 100 million Arabs. Liberals and the president subscribe to the “one-state” theory: That Palestine and Israel should be merged as one nation, not two, with a Muslim voting majority – and eventually a Muslim government with access to all of Israel’s weapons, nuclear included.

Against this backdrop, the 10th District race is unfolding in 2016. The incumbent is Bob Dold, is a moderate Republican, who has worked hard to appeal to the district’s Jewish voters, who comprise a significant 20-25 percent of the population, and have demonstrated some propensity to support a specific kind of Republicans: socially liberal (pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control), fiscally conservative, a military hawks, and a Friend of Israel. That brand, which excluded pro-Reagan, pro-Bush and religious-oriented Republicans, was typified by longtime congressmen John Porter (1980-2000) and Mark Kirk (2000-10), now senator. Each compiled an identifiably “independent” record, and each ran 10-15 percent ahead of the Republican presidential candidate.

In 1984, Reagan got 153,880 votes (68 percent), and Porter 153,330 (73 percent). By 1988, Porter had 158,519 votes (73 percent), to Bush’s 143,022. By 1996, Porter had 145,626 votes (69 percent), to Dole’s 97,434.  In 2000, when Porter aide Kirk ran, he had 121,582 votes (51 percent), edging a Jewish woman; Bush II got 110,427 votes (45 percent). By 2008, despite the Obama tide, Kirk got 153,082 votes (53 percent), to McCain’s 114,035 (38 percent).

Even as the district was becoming more liberal and more Democratic, voters seemed to want to subliminally prove their independence by voting for every Democrat except their congressman. And Kirk was careful to regularly break with his party, and to raise lots of money.

The proverbial applecart was upset in 2011 by Speaker Mike Madigan, who crafted a remap to eliminate Dold, who won Kirk’s seat 109,941-105,290 in 2010, a margin of 4,651 votes over a shopworn Democrat who lost in 2006 and 2008. The old 10th District was split 50/50 between Cook and Lake counties, stretching from Lake Michigan west to Palatine and Arlington Heights, roughly north of Golf Rd., and running north of Lake Forest, east of I-94; the Madigan map chopped out the Republican west suburbs, and added North Chicago, Waukegan and Zion. The Hispanic population rose from 15.6 to 21.6 percent, and the black population from 4.7 to 7 percent. That was just enough.

In a 2012 turnout of 262,952, Obama beat Romney 157,400-112,252 (58 percent), while Schneider topped Dold 133,890-130,564 (51 percent), a margin of 3,326 votes. Schneider ran 23,510 votes behind Obama, and still won. Schneider won the 144 Cook County precincts 30,395-29,175, and the 309 Lake County precincts 103,495-101,389.

In the 2014 rematch, Dold rebounded to win 98,984-88,010 (51.6 percent), a margin of 5,974 votes in a turnout of 181,984. Turnout was down by 67,000 from 2012 to 2014. The common thread: If turnout is under 200,000, it means a lower minority vote, and a Republican can win. 2016 does not loom as a low-turnout year. Other variables:

Money: Dold is on the Financial Services committee. According to the June 30 federal disclosures, Dold had $1,049,058 on-hand, to Schneider’s $482,834 and Rotering’s $660,655, including a $200,000 loan from herself. In the pricey Chicago media market, saturation TV ads will be required. In 2014, Schneider spent $4.3 million, and Dold $3.1 million. 2016 will cost $8 million, and the Democratic primary will cost $2 million.

Selective votes: Back in 2012, Dold votes against banning abortion after 20 months. In 2015, Dold opposed repealing Obamacare. Just recently, Dold voted against defunding Planned Parenthood. Dold is pro-choice on abortion, supports gay marriage, and backs gun control. He’s not a Newt Gingrich-type congressman. Schneider’s 2014 barrage of media ads tying him to U.S. House Republican “extremists” fell flat. “He (Dold) will be tough to beat,” said one Lake County Democratic activist. Dold has also been a consistent backer of selling advanced weaponry to Israel, and is opposed to the Iran nuclear deal.

Base: Dold, of Kenilworth, is entrenched in Cook County, which includes 30 precincts in Maine Township, 8 in New Trier, 42 in Northfield, and 30 in Wheeling. Even so, he barely carried that area (21,556-21,315) in 2014. Schneider’s base is Deerfield, but Dold carried Lake County 74,436-69,821 in 2014. Rotering, who like Schneider is Jewish, has a base along the Lakefront, in Highland Park, Highwood and Glencoe. While Schneider has higher name recognition, he suffers from the Dan Seals Syndrome: Seals ran credible races in 2006 and 2008, but collapsed when he got his big chance against Dold in 2010. Rotering is running as a “fresh face” who does not have a pro-Obama voting record to defend.

In the 2012 Democratic primary, when turnout was 33,116, Schneider won with 47 percent in a four-man field. If there is a roaring Clinton-Sanders-Biden presidential primary race on March 15, turnout will be high, and Rotering will benefit from gender voting. 

Divisive primary: “There are absolutely no (issue) differences between them,” said the activist of the Schneider-Rotering contest, “except the Iran nuclear deal.” So why is Schneider, who has the blessing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Washington insiders, bucking the president? The common consensus: Schneider needs some separation from Obama. Will that do it? Or will Jewish voters in the 10th District, very few of which are Orthodox, deem support for Obama more important than support for Israel?

Gentiles in general, and Republicans in particular, have a misconception that the “Jewish vote” – and, remember, Jews are only 1.8 percent of the U.S. population – is monolithic, homogeneous, liberal and habitually Democratic; almost like the black vote. That’s incorrect. There are numerous fissures and antagonisms.

Just as there are denominations among Christians, and numerous sects among Protestants and Evangelicals, there is a huge divide in the Jewish community between “reform,” who are culturally Jewish, and Modern Orthodox, who are religiously Jewish. The latter has sub-sects which include Hasidic, Haredi and Messianic Jews. The differences are profound, not only in lifestyle ,but also on the meaning of Israel.

“Reform” Jews, which constitute about 90 percent of the Jewish vote in the 10th District, are well-educated, prosperous, culturally liberal, Democratic, and most emphatically not Zionist. “Support for Israel is a low priority,” said the activist. Their population share is dwindling because of low fertility (1.9 children per couple) and inter-marriage (71 percent marry non-Jews). At their Synagogue, when the Torah is read, it is limited to the Five Books of Moses: Genesis, Exodus, Deuteronomy, Levitas and Number. Judaism is cultural.

Conversely, for Orthodox Jews, which number 13 percent of all Jews, and have huge concentrations in Brooklyn and Westchester County, New York, and Baltimore, plus a sizeable population in West Rogers Park in Chicago. Judaism is religious. They subscribe to the Books of the Old Testament: Ezekiel, Isiah, Nehemiah, Ezekiel and David. Their fertility rate is 4.1, and inter-marriage is only 20 percent. Their lifestyle has dietary restrictions, observation of the Sabbath, gender segregation, and Yeshivas, with Zionism being a major focal point. Modern Orthodox Jews are very conservative politically, fervent about Israel, and surprisingly pro-Republican. But the Hasidic and Haredi Jews are very pacifistic, and view Israel’s alleged militarism as “destructive of the Judaic way of life.” Hasidic Jews only speak Yiddish, and Haredi Jews seek segregation from the secular world. Neither are Zionist.

So how does this play out?

First, it’s “divide and conquer.” Like Kirk, Dold is undermining the Obama Democratic base. He is, at a minimum, not giving independents a reason to vote against him; giving some Democrats a reason to vote for him; and solidifying his base among Republicans.

And second, Schneider needs Hillary to get over 55 percent. Won’t happen.

E-mail Russ@russstewart.com or visit his website at www.russstewart.com.