September 30, 2015
"RAUNER AGENDA" COULD JEOPARDIZE McAULIFFE IN 2016
"Rauner Agenda" politically toxic? The 20th House District, located on Chicago's far northwest side, plus adjacent suburbs, will be Ground Zero in 2016 to test that premise. Incumbent Mike McAuliffe (R-20) has generally supported the governor's hardline agenda, which includes a 4% budget cut, term limits, remap commission, and tort, workers' comp and unemployment comp. If Madigan recruits a credible candidate, and pumps in $500,000, McAuliffe will have a real problem -- unless, of course, Rauner and his wealthy cronies pump in a countervailing $500,000. In the 41st Ward, pro-Emanuel ex-Ald. Mary O'Connor is quitting as Dem committeeman, complicating Madigan's plans. Full Article...
September 23, 2015
KOTOWSKI RESIGNATION PRESAGES GOVERNOR BID
There are many pathways to the Illinois governorship. It could be though money, steppingstone office, novelty and/or marriage. Dan Kotowski's pathway runs through ChildServ, a NFP social service entity; Kotowski, dubbed "Energizer Danny" because of his prodigious campaigning tenacity (he works precincts 4-5 hours daily) is quitting as state senator,as prelude to running for governor in 2018 as the "Rauner doesn't care" alternative, with support from "human services" Democrats. Lisa Madigan better beware. Kotowski's bail jeopardizes Senate Pres. John Cullerton's super-majority (39-20), and means Dems must spend $1 million to elect Laura Murphy as Kotowski's replacement; Republicans will field a credible candidate in the Park Ridge-Des Plaines- Schaumburg district. Full Article...
September 16, 2015
"OVER-PERFORM" TO WIN 2016 SENATE RACE
"Over-performing" may sound like an automotive industry idiom or a fuel additive. In 2016, in Illinois, it aptly describes the pathway to a second term for US Sen Mark Kirk (R-IL). Kirk must finish 5-8 points ahead of the Republican presidential nominee in IL, in a turnout of not more than 5 million. In 2010, Kirk got 1,778,698 votes, winning by a margin of 59,220 votes; in 2016, he will need about 2.5 million votes, an increase of about 725,000 over 2010. Kirk's 2012 stroke has undermined his campaigning ability, and he remains largely undefined with no identifiable political base. His likely Democratic foe will be US Rep Tammy Duckworth (D-8), who will raise as much as Kirk ($25 million), and has a war hero background. But Kirk's strategists remain optimistic. 2016 won't be as horrific for Republicans as 2008, when Obama won IL by 1,388,167 votes, or 2012, when Obama won IL by 884,296; they hope it will be more like 2004, when Kerry won by 545,604 votes (55%). Hillary Clinton won't be an Obama. Nevertheless, Kirk starts 2016 as a substantial underdog. Full Article...
September 9, 2015
EMANUEL'S TAX-HIKE EXCUSE: BLAME IT ON DALE
"Blame it on Daley." That's the Big Whine emanating from Chicago's City Hall in the wake of Mayor Emanuel's proposed $500 million property tax hike in 2016. Rich Daley, mayor for 22 years, is the goat and/or scapegoat. Chicago's indebtedness is $34 billion, of which underfunded pensions amount to $30 billion. The 2016 budget will be close to $10 billion, with a $754 million deficit, including a lump sum of $328 million for police and fire pensions. The 2015 budget was $8.9 billion. When Daley departed in 2011, the budget was just over $5 billion. Over the next 5 years, $1 billion must be allocated to pensions, both current and underfunded, which means ever-higher property taxes. Tax appeal lawyers will have a field day. Rahm better find some new sources of revenue, or start looking for his next job. "Blame it on Daley" won't cut it. Full Article...
September 2, 2015
WHITE'S 2018 RETIREMENT PUTS "NON-RETROGRESSION" AT RISK
If there is a Holy Grail among Democrats in Cook County and Illinois, it is the thesis of "non-retrogression." That simply means that once a public offices goes black (or, to a lesser extent, Hispanic), it never goes back. That minority "owns" the job forevermore. IL Secretary of State Jesse White's announced 2018 retirement will test that presumption. At least two blacks -- Ald. Walter Burnett (27th), White's protégé, and Cook County Recorder Karen Yarbrough, Mike Madigan's protégé -- want White's job. So does Mike Frerichs, the white state treasurer, and a Downstater. The office controls 4,592 jobs. Mike Madigan cannot permit an all-white Democratic slate in 2018, especially if daughter Lisa Madigan is running for governor. White Democrats depend on black votes. Frerichs wants to get on track to be governor. 3 former Secretarys became IL governor, and one senator. Should either Burnett or Yarbrough succeed White, they will be "lifers." Watch the Biss-Mendoza primary (D) for comptroller in 2016; it will test whether Madigan can deliver for Yarbrough. Full Article...
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