March 25, 2015
O'CONNOR IN JEOPARDY IN RUNOFF IN 41ST WARD
There is an ancient political saying: Don't let the grass grow under your feet. That means not standing still. It means broadening one's voter base and universe of support. It means using and maximizing one's incumbency. In the Far Northwest Side 41st Ward, where Alderman Mary O'Connor is completing her first term, the proverbial grass under and around her feet is knee-high and choked with weeds. Full Article...
March 18, 2015
SHATTERING RUNOFF MYTHS; THE NEW REALITY
A gigantic myth surrounds Chicago's aldermanic (and now mayoral) runoff system, to wit: If the incumbent can't amass 50%-plus in the primary, then he/she loses the runoff. History dictates otherwise. Incumbents win more than 60% of the time. Chicago's 45th Ward is illustrative. In decades past, dating back to the 1970s, an aldermanic runoff meant a higher turnout, as Machine precinct captures dragged out more voters. Now it's the reverse. Turnout actually declines in the runoff, as negative mailings poison voters on all candidates. In the April 7 Arena-Garrido aldermanic runoff, the goal is to turn out one's base, and tune out the opposition's interest. Full Article...
March 11, 2015
CHUY GARCIA AS MAYOR? IT COULD HAPPEN
Mayor Chuy? No more Mayor Rahm? It could happen April 7 if Garcia carries his Hispanic base, centered in 14 Chicago wards, by 2/3rds, and keeps Emanuel's margins in the white and black wards under 52% At present, the city's voters are 51% white, 40% black, and 9% Hispanic. There is some "consciousness raising" and enthusiasm among Hispanics, but the powerful North Side Puerto Ricans are with Emanuel, as are southwest side white committeemen from Mexican-American wards. On 2/24, Garcia got only 50.8% in the Hispanic wards, and those wards produced just 20% of the citywide turnout. Both black and white voters face a quandary: Vote out Rahm, who they don't like and don't trust. Or put in Chuy, who may be much worse. Here's an analysis of the outcomes in the Hispanic wardfs. Full Article...
March 4, 2015
"RAHM REJECTIONS' WAS EPIDEMIC IN CHICAGO VOTE
The significance of Rahm Emanuel's February 24 debacle is not that he received 45.5% of the vote, or that his 2015 total of 214,998 was over 100,000 less than the 325,496 garnered in 2011. The glaring fact is that, of Chicago's 1,421,430 registered voters, 79.9% either didn't vote, or didn't vote for Rahm. That's a repudiation. And being an alderman who supported the mayor over 90% of the time did serious political damage. The anti-Emanuel alderman -- Nick Sposato, John Arena -- did fine. The pro-mayor alderman -- Pat O'Connor, Marge Laurino, Mary O'Connor, Ray Suarez, Deb Mell -- saw their margins collapse. Rahm may eke out a 2015 win over Chuy Garcia, but any alderman who wants to be re-elected in 2019 had better keep some distance from Emanuel. Full Article...
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