February 18, 2015
AS ELECTION APPROACHES, 'FIZZLERS' RETURN TO REALITY
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
by Russ Stewart
It’s “fizzler” time – that dreaded, painful moment, usually about a week before the election, when delusional candidates have an epiphany, and realize that defeat is imminent. Their campaigns have fizzled, due to lack of money, endorsements, workers, PAC contributions, or candidate flaws, or all of the above.
With the Feb. 24 Chicago municipal elections imminent, here’s this column’s recitation of fizzlers and winners.
Mayor: Have no doubt, the entire array of anti-Emanuel candidates have famously fizzled. A bunch of underfunded nobodies cannot topple a mayor like Rahm Emanuel, who will spend over $25 million. Having gone snap, crackle and pop are Chuy Garcia, Bob Fioretti, Dock Walls and the self-hyped Willie Wilson, who was supposed to be the “Second Coming” of Harold Washington.
Fioretti, the white 2nd Ward Ward alderman, carefully complied an anti-Emanuel voting record, which presumably appealed to “progressives” (liberals), unions and teachers. All through 2014, as CTU president Karen Lewis pondered a mayoral bid, Fioretti was the backup. When Lewis bailed, Fioretti got in, expecting to inherit her coalition. He hasn’t. Emanuel send several mailings into white wards blasting Fioretti for his support of Rich Daley’s parking meter deal. Fioretti is DOA.
Wilson, a mega-wealthy black businessman, promised to self-fund up to $3 million. He was supposed to pay top dollar for black “precinct workers” (like Bruce Rauner did), and pay off the Democratic committeemen. It hasn’t happened. He’s been a total bust. Every committeeman is supporting Emanuel.
And Garcia, a southwest side Mexican-American who has compiled a certifiably liberal record as alderman, state senator and county commissioner over 30 years, has fizzled as a credible anti-Emanuel alternative. The city’s Hispanic vote is barely 15 percent, and the North Side Puerto Rican bosses are with Emanuel. Emanuel’s mailers have pummeled Garcia as a tax-hiker and tax-cheat (for taking two property tax exemptions).
Polling stats confirmed by several sources put Emanuel at slightly over 50 percent, enough to avoid an April 7 runoff; Garcia at 20-22 percent; Fioretti at 8-10 percent; and the combined Wilson-Walls vote at a paltry 10 percent, with 5-10 percent undecided..
Polling also gives Emanuel half the black vote. That is determinative and decisive. That means he wins. Emanuel is running poorly (barely half against Garcia) along the white Lakefront, and is drawing only a bit over half in the north and northwest side white wards (with Fioretti and Garcia splitting the rest). That, in my opinion, really sucks.
“Rahm is neither likeable nor popular,” said one area Democratic operative. “He’s lucky Toni Preckwinkle didn’t run” against him. “But the year to beat him will be 2019, not 2015.
My prediction: Rahm won with 55.3 percent in 2011 in a turnout of 588,956; he’ll win with 51 percent in 2015 in a turnout of 540,000. Not much of a mandate. Given Chicago’s insoluble pension and fiscal problems, there won’t be a third term.
Aldermen: Early voting has altered the dynamic. In the past, a candidate would “peak” 10 days before the election, flooding the ward/district with mailers (one every other day for 2 weeks) and workers. Voters weren’t focused until then. Now, as voting starts 15 days early, candidates must unleash mailers in mid-January, and continue the barrage. And that takes money.
First, the mailers only go to “likely” voters, meaning those who voted in 2011, 2012 and/or 2014. Every ward has a census population of about 55,000. When minors and non-citizen immigrants are factored out, that leaves 20-30,000 registered voters per ward, of which, in non-presidential elections, just half vote. Then factor in “households.” Some have 3-4 voters, others just one. So divide 10-15,000 “likely” voters by two, and that means each mailing numbers 5-7,500, at a cost of 80-90 cents each (for printing and postage), or about $5,000 a pop. All the pieces are multi-colored, printed on heavy laminate stock, so no envelopes need be opened.
Second, there is no hand-me-down factor. It’s scan-and-toss. In multi-voter households, the first one to the mailbox or mail-chute throws the piece in the trash; they don’t save it for other family members. So there is a huge no-contact problem., even with a multiplicity of mailings.
Third, there is an “appreciation” factor. Among political insiders, it is thought that, for non-incumbents, each direct mailer boosts name recognition by ten percent. And, for incumbents, each mailer solidifies at least five percent of their prior base. Any election with an alderman on the ballot is a referendum on the incumbent. Incumbents can raise money needed for up to ten mailers ($50,000), or get IE’s (independent expenditures) for attack pieces from SuperPACs and unions. Incumbents, even longtimers, and especially poor performers, need to resell and redefine themselves, and to negatively define their opponents (think Emanuel); challengers need to introduce themselves, and give voters a reason to oust their incumbent. In incumbentless races, where voters have a choice, giving them a reason not to vote for their opponent is as important as giving them a reason to vote for them. The equation is simple: Money = mailings = victory.
Fourth, there’s the psychology of the runoff. If a well-financed alderman can’t get 50 percent-plus in the primary, he/she is in deep doo-doo. That means half the voters wanted somebody else, and will likely vote for the surviving challenger in the runoff. Historically, in Chicago aldermanic runoffs, incumbents lose two-thirds of the time. When the primary field is upwards of six, runoffs are inevitable.
Fifth, there are moneyed players. Non-fizzling candidates can raise $50-100,000. But Emanuel’s “Chicago Forward” (CF) SuperPAC and his “Chicagoans for Educational Reform” (CFER) PAC are spending millions on ads and mailers to beat anti-Emanuel aldermen, while the public-sector Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) are spending a like amount to save them.
And sixth, a saturation point is reached. Mailboxes are over-clogged. It used to be that a third of voters decided a week before the election; now they decide a month before the election, and early vote. Those who haven’t mailed are fizzlers.
Here’s a look at some area contests:
45th Ward (Portage Park, Jefferson Park, Gladstone Park, Old Irving): Voters need shovels to unclog their driveways and mailboxes. By campaign’s end, over 25 pieces will have been mailed. The candidates are incumbent John Arena, police lieutenant John Garrido (who lost to Arena by 30 votes in 2011), “45th Ward Mom” Michelle Baert, and lawyer Mike Diaz. Baert and Diaz have fizzled. Arena has an abrasive do-it-my-way personality (the Chicago Tribune endorsed him but called him “combative”), which is offset by his anti-Emanuel voting record, which is wildly popular in Portage Park.
The pro-Arena SEIU PAC paid for over ten pieces, the most memorable blasting Garrido and Baert as Republicans. Garrido “attended Tea Party events” They want to bring the Bush-Cheney “mess” to Chicago, they blared. Oh sure, as if one Republican out of 50 aldermen can make any mess. How about Emanuel and the Obama “mess”? And they hyperventilated about Baert voting in the 2012 Republican primary “when Obama was on the ballot.” Bring out the guillotine. The pro-Emanuel CFER ripped Arena for backing the mayor’s 2012 budget, which closed some mental health clinics; they will have five mailers. Garrido will pay for six, Arena four, and Baert one (plus newspaper inserts). Diaz has gone to ground.
Union and internal polling puts Arena at or near 50 percent, Garrido around 30-35 percent, Baert at 10-15 percent, and Diaz near zero. Garrido said his polls show it at 34-36. An Arena-Garrido runoff, Part II, would be fascinating and convoluted. Will CF and CFER spend big bucks to elect a non-Emanuel “Republican” alderman? SEIU and CTU will spend another $100,000 to re-elect Arena. Arena ekes out a 51-52 percent win. No runoff.
38th Ward (Portage Park, Dunning): It’s a “free pass.” Anti-Emanuel Alderman Nick Sposato had his 36rh Ward dismembered by the city council, and merged into Alderman Tim Cullerton’s 38th Ward. Sposato was supposed to lose. But then Cullerton retired. Sposato has raised over $200,000 (for over a dozen mailers), and SEIU PAC has dumped another ten pro-Sposato mailers into the ward. CF and CFER are MIA. The other six aspirants – Jerry Paszek, Tom Caravette, Cullerton-backed Heather Sattler, Carmen Hernandez, Mike Duda and Belinda Cadiz – have all fizzled. Only Sattler has sent out any mailings (two). Sposato will get over 50 percent. No runoff.
39th Ward (Sauganash, Forest Glen, Mayfair): The 2011 remap cut out heavily Democratic Albany Park (with lots of Hispanics), and added territory along Elston Avenue. Incumbent Marge Laurino has a 100 percent pro-Emanuel voting record. A Laurino has been alderman (dad and her) since 1964. Opponents Robert Murphy and Joe Laiacona rip the incumbent for poor services. ‘She’s an equal-opportunity alderman,” said Murphy, past president of the Forest Glen Community Assn. “Every area of the ward is equally neglected.” Can the combined Murphy-Laiacona vote exceed 50 percent? Won’t happen. Marge with 55 percent.
41st Ward (Norwood Park, Edison Park, Oriole Park): Pro-Emanuel Alderman Mary O’Connor has emerged from hibernation, with six mailers in mid-February. Neither Joe LoManto nor Anthony Napolitano have fizzled, but it’s doubtful they can jointly amass the 50 percent necessary to force a runoff. O’Connor with 51-52 percent.
40th Ward (Budlong Woods, Peterson Park): Pat O’Connor, Emanuel’s floor leader, has been alderman since 1983. But his “shelf life” and Emanuel tie are causing problems. He should defeat Dianne Daleiden 70-30; instead it will be closer to 55-45.
Elsewhere, ward bosses are struggling. Dick Mell, 33rd Ward alderman for 38 years, handed off the job to daughter Deb Mell in 2013. The CTU is backing teacher Tim Meegan. Polls show Mell at under 35 percent. In the new Hispanic-majority 36th Ward, Assessor Joe Berrios is backing Omar Aquino against Luis Arroyo’s guy, Gil Villegas, with teacher Chris Vittorio and Al Zaragoza also running. A Villegas-Aquino runoff looms. And in the Austin area 29th Ward, with 8 candidates running, incumbent Deborah Graham will be in a runoff.
E-mail Russ@russstewart.com or visit his website at www.russstewart.com.