October 29, 2014
PIVOTS AND PREDICTIONS FOR NOVEMBER 4
It's pivot time. After months of relentless negativity, the electorate has been hopelessly polarized -- with the 10% undecided now being crucial. They may not vote, or may vote for the least worst choice. The astute candidate pivots, and goes positive. In the Illinois governor's race, both Quinn (D) and Rauner (R)) are mired in the mid-40's. They need half of the undecided. Rauner's gone semi-positive; Quinn is still negative. Quinn won in 2010 with 1,745,219 votes (45.8%), which was only 23.2% of registered voters. It doesn't take much movement to win. Here are my predictions. Full Article...
October 22, 2014
IT’S “THE WORST CAMPAIGN THAT MONEY COULD BUY”
It's unquestionably the worst campaign that money could buy. Bruce Rauner (R) will spend upwards of $75 million to be elected governor, with about $20 million from his own pocket -- and will still lose. Incumbent Pat Quinn (D) is arguably America's worst governor -- and he's going to win. Despite Illinois' fiscal and pension morass, and despite 12 years of Democratic dominance, voters don't seem to care. Let's keep the bums in. After winning the Republican primary with 40.1%, Rauner took control of his campaign, and has run it into the ground; his message is disjointed and inconsistent. Rauner is not connecting with the state's voters. He is 2014's Tom Dewey -- poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Full Article...
October 15, 2014
'MORAL VICTORY' SOUGHT BY GOP STATE SENATORS
Here is a multiple choice question: Republicans in the Illinois Senate are (a) Irrelevant. (b) Inconsequential. (c) Invisible. or (d) All of the above. The answer is (d). In the Illinois House, the Democrats have a 71-47 "super majority," eaning they have more than three-fifths of votes in the chamber and can override vetoes and pass bills in overtime sessions. The Democrats have a 40-19 edge in the Senate, which is two-thirds of the chamber. Call that a "super super majority." Full Article...
October 8, 2014
"DYSFUNCTIONAL" DEMOCRATS MAY KEEP HOUSE SUPERMAJORITY
The Illinois House, dominated by the Sphinx of Springfield, Speaker Mike Madigan, is dysfunctional. Problems are delayed, not solved. Up to $20 million will be raised and spent so as to protect Madigan's 71-47 super majority. The culture is "Politics 24/7." The Republicans are targeting 4 seats in 2014: Moylan, Cloonen, Smiddy and Yingling. But Madigan got 3 referendums and 2 Constitutional amendments on the ballot to "gin up the vote" The seats of 4 Republicans are at risk. Attached is a 2014 VOTE CHART for northwest suburban and Northwest Side Chicago state representatives (10D, 1R); note that every rep except McAuliffe is under the speaker's thumb -- since his money got all except Lang, Williams and Feigenholtz elected. Prediction: 69-49 Dem non-supermajority in 2015. Full Article...
October 1, 2014
NOV. ELECTION RESULT WILL BE "UPS MOMENT"
November 4 will, for Democratic politicians in Chicago, be a "UPS Moment." In other words, they'll know which candidates and committeemen decisively deliver victories and votes. Mayor Rahm Emanuel will spend $20 million to get re-elected in 2015 -- but not all on media and mailings. DEPRESS TURNOUT is his strategy. If turnout exceeds 2011's 580,000, the mayor is in jeopardy. November 4 will show which ward organizations (especially black committeemen) can deliver. The November 4 outcome will also impact :Lisa Madigan's prospects for governor in 2018. Full Article...
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