September 3, 2014
UNIONS' HEAVY SPENDING WILL AID SPOSATO, ARENA

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

by RUSS STEWART

In the Northwest Side 38th Ward, the operative characterization is that "it ain't over until it's over," and it won't be over until Feb. 24. Circulation of nominating petitions commenced on Aug. 26, and the filing period ends on Nov. 24.

With Alderman Tim Cullerton having announced his retirement in July, ending 80 years of aldermanic hegemony by a member of the "Cullerton Clan," and with no more Cullertons in the biological cupboard, the ward is in flux. Alliances are changing furiously, and new faces are emerging. Mayor Rahm Emanuel's "Chicago Forward" political action committee will spend millions of dollars to defeat anti-Emanuel aldermen, with upwards of $400,000 flooding into the 38th Ward, and the Cullertons will go down fighting, having recruited a credible candidate to defeat Nick Sposato. Here's what's happening:

The 2011 City Council remap combined 40 percent of the existing 36th Ward, represented by independent Alderman Nick Sposato, with 40 percent of the 38th Ward, represented by pro-Emanuel Cullerton, into a reconfigured 38th Ward where Cullerton had the edge. In 2011 the Chicago Federation of Labor, representing trades, police, fire, teacher and public sector unions, plus Emanuel, coalesced to elect Cullerton and to defeat Sposato, funneling move than $500,000 into Cullerton's 38th Ward campaign but a pittance into John Rice's campaign in the 36th Ward. In the prospective 2015 Cullerton-Sposato match-up, Sposato would have been buried in an avalanche of dollars.

With Cullerton out, Sposato becomes the unions' guy. "He's one of our top targets to protect," one influential public sector union operative said of Sposato. "He's great on labor issues." Sposato opposed Emanuel's pension proposals, school and library closings, charter school plans, Infrastructure Trust and speed cameras, and he supports a minimum wage hike to $13 an hour, using TIF district money for schools, an elected school board and hiring more police officers. The eight members of the anti-Emanuel "Progressive Caucus" will all get huge union funding, including Alderman John Arena in the adjacent 45th Ward.

The unions' "independent expenditures," uncoordinated with the Sposato campaign, will sing Sposato's praises and attack his opposition. As Sposato has only about $50,000 in his campaign account, he would have been susceptible to a "Chicago Forward" onslaught. Most of the pro-Sposato money will flow from the Service Employees International Union and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, public sector government employee unions. Now it's a fair fight.

The opponent candidate in the 38th Ward is Heather Sattler, the daughter of longtime aldermanic aide Rita Sattler, who was chief of staff to both Cullerton and his predecessor, Tom Allen. Rita Sattler retired in June. Her daughter is the chief operations officer of the 100 Club of Chicago, a nonprofit entity that raises funds for the spouses of Chicago police officers and firefighters who have lost their lives in the line of duty. That post gives her credibility, a boatload of connections and access to the police vote.

According to Sposato, at least five or six more candidates are circulating petitions in the 38th Ward, including Tom Caravette, who lost the 2011 runoff to Cullerton 4,722-3,110 (with 39.7 percent of the vote), and John Cianci, whose campaign is being orchestrated by Dominic Longo, a longtime 36th Ward Banks-DeLeo machine operative who is an aide to Metropolitan Water Reclamation District Commissioner Frank Avila. "They're running an Italian-surnamed male to shave my vote," said Sposato, who presumes Longo is working with the Emanuel/Cullerton forces.

The outlook: Make them spend it all, and they will. A field of five to 10 candidates means that Sposato, as the outsider/anti-Emanuel candidate, will not exceed 50 percent of the vote in the February municipal election and will be forced into an April runoff, surely against Sattler. That will make the Sposato-Sattler race ground zero. The unions cannot lose it, and Emanuel cannot lose face by losing it. A warning to 38th Ward voters: Keep those blue carts handy. A tidal wave of paper will be deluging your mailboxes. Close to $1 million will be spent to elect an alderman who, realistically, will be inconsequential in the 50-member council over the next 4 years.

State Representative Rob Martwick (D-19) is on the move. Martwick's father, Norwood Park Township Democratic Committeeman Robert Martwick, got him elected Norridge trustee and township trustee at an early age. Martwick would be in line to succeed his 77-year-old father as township committeeman, but he has moved from Norridge into the 38th Ward. Martwick was elected to the Illinois House in 2012, succeeding Joe Lyons of the 45th Ward.

"He's positioning himself to run for (Democratic ward) committeeman in 2016," one local politician said of Martwick. "He's protecting his base." The 38th Ward contains 28 of the House district's 82 precincts (with 38 in the 45th Ward and six in Norridge). Martwick is closely allied with Arena, the 45th Ward Democratic committeeman. There is no Republican candidate in the race. "It's more convenient for my wife and myself to live closer to public transportation," Martwick said of his move. When not in Springfield, Martwick practices law in his father's firm, which does lucrative property tax appeal work.

The current committeeman is Patti Jo Cullerton, who spent her adult life on various county payrolls and is now retired. She is Tim Cullerton's sister and the daughter of the late Alderman Tom Cullerton, who served from 1973 to 1993. She took her father's post when he died. Her organization is in decay, with few precinct workers and a dearth of money. According to the June 30 disclosure filings, she had a measly $5,049 in cash on hand.

The outlook: If Sposato is elected alderman in 2015, he will run for committeeman in 2016 and Martwick will oppose him. If Sattler is elected alderman in 2015, Martwick will have a clear shot at committeeman while Sattler concentrates on being the alderman and they work jointly to build a new organization.

45th Ward: Arena, who benefited from about $300,000 in union independent expenditures in 2011, faces Chicago police lieutenant John Garrido and Michelle Baert, who is running as the "45th Ward Mom." Arena beat Garrido by 30 votes in the 2011 runoff. The battle lines are now clear. "We will do and spend whatever it takes" to re-elect Arena, the union operative said, adding that they are stockpiling issues to use in the campaign, the most devastating being that Baert voted in the 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 Republican primaries. "She's a Republican," he scoffed. In 2011 the SEIU relentlessly hammered Garrido as a "George Bush Republican," and he only voted in one Republican primary (in 2010), and that was because he was running unsuccessfully for Cook County Board president. Both Garrido and Baert voted Democratic in the 2012 primary.

Baert has been diligently campaigning, promising to be a "full-time" alderman, in contrast to Arena, who she says spends too much time playing politics, as well as limiting herself to two terms and refusing to take a city pension or any pay hike. Baert's demographic is women, and if "macho men" Arena and Garrido bash each other like they did in 2011, and if "Chicago Forward" pours at least $300,000 into her campaign, she could edge out Garrido as the premier anti-Arena candidate and force an Arena-Baert runoff.

Arena's issue stances are identical to Sposato's as detailed above, and his anti-Emanuel fervor resonates well in the ward, particularly the more liberal Portage Park area. A recent poll by the Bruce Rauner campaign, which showed the Republican candidate getting almost half the vote in Northwest Side wards, also polled the 45th Ward race and pegged Arena at 26 percent, Garrido at 18 percent and Baert at 9 percent, with 47 percent undecided. That's nonsense. The poll is an outlier.

"(Arena is) close to 50 percent," the union official said. "He could win without a runoff," but only if the unions spend $400,000-plus demonizing Baert and Emanuel.

Two factors are in play. The first is the "Birdseed Syndrome." An alderman, when first elected, is sort of like a back-yard bird feeder, filled to the brim. Arena beat Garrido 6,083-6,053, but that doesn't mean all the 2011 Garrido voters will stick with him in 2015. Arena's the incumbent, and he can provide, or fail to provide, services. That's the pecking. Every year in office, as an alderman disappoints or infuriates more voters, the birdseed level diminishes. That's offset by the "Hangin' Around Syndrome." Voters who want nothing see the alderman around and presume he's doing a splendid job. Arena is a very visible alderman.

The outlook: Get the blue carts ready. The mail deluge awaits. Arena is not the accommodating type -- he does it his way. He's a polarizing figure, liked by many but disliked by almost as many. The question is, has Arena lost any portion of his 50.1 percent vote from 2011? His Portage Park base, which provides 35 percent of the ward's vote, is secure. There is no pro-Emanuel vote, so opposing the mayor is advantageous. Garrido is from Gladstone Park, and Baert is from Jefferson Park. Baert will run as the "nonpolitician reformer" (contrasted with Arena, the "politician reformer"), and Garrido will run as the "fill-the-potholes" candidate, claiming that he can provide better services and that Arena's City Council obstructionism has resulted in a punitive "no services" situation in the ward.

My prediction: There will be a runoff. Will it be Arena-Baert or Arena-Garrido? Arena-Baert is the more likely.

41st Ward: After eking out a 250-vote win in the 2011 runoff, Alderman Mary O'Connor is secure. Circulating petitions are Bob Kane, a Chicago police sergeant, and Anthony Napolitano, a city firefighter. Neither is formidable.

Send e-mail to russ@russstewart. com or visit his Web site at www. russstewart.com.