May 28, 2014
EMANUEL BASELESS, BUT NOT CLUELESS, IN 2015 RACE
There may be, both nationally and locally, an Obama Nation. But in Chicago, there is no Emanuel Infatuation. Mayor Rahm Emanuel has had over three years to make a record worthy of re-election in 2015 -- and he has disappointed many. Emanuel won with 53% in 2011, and recent polls put him at a dismal 29-30% in a multi-candidate 2015 race. Clearly, "Not Enamored with Emanuel" is the watchword. It's panic time -- especially if black Cook County Board Pres. Toni Preckwinkle runs. Otherewise, Emanuel faces beatable foes like CTU president Karen Lewis or Ald. Bob Fioretti (2nd). The mayor has over $7 million, and is cozy with Obama. the Clintons, and the Hollywood elite. With a $27.5 billion city pension fund deficit, Emanuel must work some magic to avoid a politically-crippling property tax levy hike in the 2015 budget. A run for U.S. Senator or vice-president (with Hillary) in 2016 would be Rahm's golden parachute. Full Article...
May 21, 2014
"SHORT-SALE" EPIDEMIC DEPRESSES HOME VALUES
The first wave of ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) is cresting, but a new epidemic of "underwater" defaults will prompt a plethora of "short-sales." The real estate market is mildly resurgent, particularly home rentals. First-time and institutional buyers are scooping-up Chicago-area properties at bargain-basement prices. "The market is on fire," said one realtor, but short sales depress prices. That adversely affects no-mortgage or low-mortgage sellers who want to "buy up," but have to cut their sales price. At 6-10% annual market gains, it will be 2030 before prices crest at 2005 levels. Nevertheless, realtor listings are surging. Full Article...
May 14, 2014
PARTIES' 2014, 2016 WISH-LISTS COULD PORTEND DISASTER
Republicans' fondest wish is to gain a U.S. Senate majority in 2014; Democrats' fondest -- if not desperate -- wish is that Hillary Clinton run for president in 2016. Both outcomes could prove disastrous. A Republican Congress (2015-16) would exacerbate squabbling and gridlock, and insure a 2016 Clinton win. A Clinton win would exacerbate tensions between the liberal Reid-Pelosi congressional faction and the opportunistic Clintons, insuing a 2018 Republican comeback. Count on this: A Hillary Clinton presidency will not exceed expectations. 2016 will be the Democrats' "Year of Women," with many women winning on the Clinton surge, and Democrats retaking Congress. In Illinois, the 2016 U.S. Senate campaign is underway, with U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-8) and black St. Sen. Kwame Raoul ready for a primary (D) battle to oppose ailing U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk (R). Clinton will win Illinois by over one million votes -- making Kirk a goner. Full Article...
May 7, 2014
BLACK POLITICIANS ANXIOUSLY AWAIT CONGRESSIONAL OPENINGS
Among black politicians in Chicago, the apex of power is the mayoralty. But, given the city's demographics -- 32% white, 27% Hispanic (and growing), and 33% black -- the city may never again have a black mayor. Congressional seats have been viewed as a steppingstone to City Hall. But Bobby Rush (D-1) and Danny Davis (D-7) are aging and ailing, and have already lost mayoral bids; and the erstwhile "Great Black Hope," Jesse Jackson Jr., is in prison and replaced by a black suburban woman. The 3/18/14 primary for county board in the West Side 1st District was Step One in the Davis succession. Davis' choice, Rich Boykin, beat the candidate endorsed by Rahm Emanuel, Toni Preckwinkle and Oak Park boss Don Harmon -- likely making him the next congressman. Austin-area Ald. Deborah Graham (29th) also wants Davis's seat, but numerous issues (like pawn shops) and a multiplicity of 2015 candidates cloud her prospects. Full Article...
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