March 12, 2014
INCUMBENTS CRAFT WINNING THEME: "I'M NOT RELATED TO ANYBODY WHO IS SOMEBODY"
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
by RUSS STEWART
“I’m not related to anybody who’s somebody.” That’s the watchword in Illinois politics, where voter contempt for anybody who’s somebody is palpable. A fair number of “somebody’s” will lose in the primary.
On March 18, voter turnout will be puny. Only the extremely motivated, or extremely controlled, will cast a ballot. But anger can be a great motivator.
And, in certain Democratic contests for state representative, as well as countywide races for judge and Metropolitan Water Reclamation District commissioner, the punier the turnout, the dimmer the prospects of outsiders’ attempts to beat the remnants of the fading Democratic machine. The political muscle of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, county Democratic chairman Joe Berrios, ex-Alderman Dick Mell, the 19th Ward, Alderman Ed Burke, Mayor Rahm Emanuel and county board president Toni Preckwinkle will be tested. So, too, will be the rabidly anti-pension reform unions, especially the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) and Service Employees International Union (SEIU).There is even a “Soul Slate” to keep black committeemen energized.
It will be a matter of survivors or scalps. The unions are targeting, and will spend over $500,000, to defeat state representatives Jaime Andrade (D-40) and Toni Berrios (D-39), Hispanics from Chicago’s northwest side, and Christian Mitchell (D-26), a black from the south side Kenwood area. Their “sin”? They are loyal to Madigan, and Madigan’s “pension reform”bill mandated retiree givebacks, COLA caps, and later retirement dates. The unions’ stance is: No negotiation. No change. No benefit reductions. Berrios actually opposed the pension “reform” The CTU is spending heavily to oust Mitchell; Madigan and Berrios are sweating and spending to rescue Toni Berrios; and Mell and Madigan are masterminding the Andrade campaign. The unions need at least one scalp. They must beat one of the three.
In the Republican primary for governor, where the unions are also dabbling, the operative word is WINNER. The party has a long history of nominating whiny, wimpy candidates whose premise is not to dismantle or reform state government, but rather to “run it more efficiently.” After four or 8 years, nothing changes. Spending and taxes are up, debt and pensions are not curtailed, and public sector unions are ever more potent. It was Republican governors who imposed and increased the state income tax.
The 2014 primary is refreshing. First, because of an absence of social issue blather. And the pervasive venality and rascality of Springfield has focused voters on power abuses and fiscal insanity, not non-issues like guns, gays or abortions.
Bruce Rauner has captivated the Republican base with his “shake up Springfield” theme. He’ll spend close to $20 million (half his own) by March 18, and he is on the cusp of being a very dangerous phenomenon: a crusade, not a campaign. In 2008, Barack Obama led a crusade. Electing a black president became a personal statement; it was trendy, fashionable, and evidenced contempt for the white guys in the Bush Administration.
Very soon, as Rauner maintains his relentless TV presence, and is buoyed by the momentum of a solid primary victory, voters will conclude that a vote for Rauner over Pat Quinn (D) is a grand way to show contempt for the selfishness and arrogance so pervasive in Springfield. They’ll conclude that he can’t be any worse than those in power, might be better, will be fun to watch, and will really infuriate all the insiders.
Rauner has made Republicans feel empowered. His opponents, state treasurer Dan Rutherford, and state senators Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard, just make them yawn. The SEIU, Illinois Education Association, and some trades unions are pumping close to $1 million into Dillard’s campaign, but it is too late. Only Rauner has a well-defined image, and negativity will not undermine it.
Republican turnout will not be puny. A fair number of Democrats, especially Downstate, will cross-over to vote for or against Rauner. In 2002, turnout was 917,759; in 2006 it was 735,810; in 2010, it was 767,485. This year, it will be in the mid-800,000 range.
The closer Rauner gets to 50 percent, the better-positioned he will be in November. Polls have him with 40-45 percent. My prediction: Rauner gets over 400,000 votes, and tops Dillard by 200,000 votes.
The mood of the voters is sour. “I’m not related to anybody who is somebody” is every politicians’ shield. Toni Berrios faces Will Guzzardi in the 40th District (Logan Square to Portage Park), and Andrade faces Nancy Schiavone, Aaron Goldstein, Mark Pasieka and Wendy Jo Harmston in the 39th District (Irving Park south to Logan Square). The SEIU PAC recently made an independent expenditure of $90,000 for Guzzardi and $83,000 for Schiavone.
Madigan has dispatched $75,000-100,000 for manpower, printing, mailings and robocalls, but Andrade has the better chance of surviving. Berrios and his allies in the district’s Puerto Rican areas are swarming the precincts, and an anti-Guzzardi mailing hits almost daily – the most repetitious being that Guzzardi believes that “dangerous sex offenders should not be required to register,” a charge Guzzardi denies.
Toni Berrios’ problems are more insoluble than Andrade’s. First, the unpopularity of “Big Daddy” has rubbed-off on her, exacerbated by ongoing allegations of Barrios Family nepotism (with 15 relatives on some payroll), while Andrade was a former Mell aide, and Mell is still popular. Second, to win, Berrios needs over half the vote, while Andrade needs only about 33-35 percent, as he has four opponents. Third, the Berrios-Guzzardi race is a referendum on the incumbent, with Guzzardi as the “change” and “shake up Springfield” contender, while Andrade is merely one of five choices. Voting against Andrade sends no message.
Fourth, Toni Berrios has been in the House for 12 years, which makes it hard to reinvent oneself. She beat Guzzardi by 125 votes in 2012. So the Madigan strategy is to go negative on Guzzardi, and have Berrios parrot his liberalism (anti-charter, anti-voucher, anti-school closure, more taxes on the “rich”). Big Daddy’s job is to deliver Hispanic votes. The negativity “is making people angry,” said Guzzardi. Andrade, in office 6 months, is barely known, has no enemies, is the only Hispanic running, and can win just by getting 70 percent in Mell’s 33rd Ward and a half the Hispanic vote.
My predictions: Andrade wins, Toni Berrios loses by 450 votes.
It’s difficult to be a conscientious voter if one has no information about the candidates. Then, ethnicity, gender, an Irish-surname, ballot position, bar association ratings, geographic base, sexual orientation and party slating are critical. Having three or more of these criterion – like woman/Irish-surname/19th Ward/slated/qualified – is golden.
The test of a Democratic is whether they can carry for obscure, down-ballot offices like judge and Metropolitan Water Reclamation commissioner. And for Burke, chair of the judicial slating committee, having party favorites on the bench is critical to party survival.
There are three Appellate Court vacancies, and Burke’s slatees are struggling in two. John Simon, son of a former alderman, and close confidant of Preckwinkle, faces Judge Sharon Odom Johnson, on the Soul Slate. That puts Preckwinkle in a bind: If she helps Simon, that will infuriate blacks, and affect her base if she runs for mayor in 2015. In the other race, black former Alderman Freddrenna Lyle, on the Soul Slate, faces Judge Susan Kennedy Sullivan and Judge Shelly Harris, who is a man, and has a huge TV buy. Sullivan favored. The third slot went to David Ellis, formerly on the speaker’s staff.
There are 11 countywide Circuit Court races, of which 5 are uncontested. Judge Al Swanson, who lost in 2012, faces Bridget Mitchell, who has the edge. Brendan O’Brien, another Madigan staffer, faces black Judge Kristal Rivers. Tough call. Bill Raines, a former cop and state’s attorney, is the slatee, but faces three women, one Irish-surnamed (Carolyn Gallagher); the gender-vote split helps him. Another slated black judge, Andrea Buford, on the Soul Slate, faces openly gay attorney James Patrick Crawley, putting liberal Democrats in a dither.
In the northwest side 10th subcircuit, slated Judge Tony Kyriakopoulos is in a nightmarish situation: A Greek surname versus Katherine O’Dell. Committeemen in the 39th, 40th, and 47th wards are pushing “Judge Tony” hard, but he’ll lose.
In the MWRD contest, where three $70,000-a year commissioners will be nominated, obscurity is the norm, and usually 7-10 Democrats run. Ballot position (first or last), gender, ethnicity (Irish-surnames), slating, name familiarity (often with other’s names) are the key – in that order.
In 2014, incumbent Frank Avila is on the slate, along with Tim Bradford, the black south suburban Rich Township committeeman (on the Soul Slate), and Josina Morita, a Japanese-American executive whose base is in Niles Township. They are 2-3-4 on the ballot. First is incumbent Cynthia Santos, who was dumped by the party, and whose name is Greek but appears Hispanic. Last is Brendan Houlihan, a former Board of Review commissioner, who can be confused with the former assessor. Also running are Frank Gardner and Kathleen O’Reilley, son and wife of a former commissioner, and Tom Courtney, Adam Miguest and John Xydakis. Prediction: Avila-Santos-Bradford.