January 22, 2013
MADIGAN'S 71-47 MAJORITY WILL MULTIPLY 2014

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

by RUSS STEWART

Here’s a multiple-choice quiz. Which of the following utterances do not qualify as one of the world’s most egregious lies?

“The check’s in the mail.” “Mission accomplished.” “I’ll still respect you in the morning.” “My dog ate my homework.” “Wait until next year.” “I never used performance-enhancing drugs of any kind.” “I lost the election because of changing demographics.”

If you chose the final statement, you’re on a fast track to write this weekly 1,500-word column when I retire. Mail your resume and a writing sample ASAP.

On Nov. 5, the day after the fall election, expect a bunch of Illinois Republicans to bleat and whine about “changing demographics,” especially those who lost contests for state representative in current or prior Republican districts.

“We won’t lose (House) seats,” predicted Steve Brown, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan’s longtime press spokesman. Brown said that the Democrats will gain seats because of -- you guessed it -- “changing demographics.” The Democrats have a 71-47 super majority in the House, which means that they can override a gubernatorial veto and pass bills in overtime sessions without any Republican votes. The Democrats gained seven House seats in 2012.

Brown’s Republican counterpart, Joe Woodward, said that his party is targeting four Democratic incumbents: Marty Moylan (D-55) of Des Plaines, Kate Cloonen (D-79) in the Kankakee area, Sam Yingling (D-62) in western Lake County around Grayslake and Mike Smiddy (D-71) in Rock Island. All except the 79th District was held by a Republican prior to 2012, and Cloonen won by 92 votes. If the Republicans net just one seat, they terminate Madigan’s super majority.

It won’t happen. The Republicans’ problem is that 10 of their incumbents are retiring or running for other office, and at least seven of those seats are vulnerable to a Democratic takeover. In addition, four suburban incumbents in Republican-leaning districts -- Jeanne Ives (R-42), Sandy Pihos (R-48), Ed Sullivan (R-51) and Ron Sandack (R-81) -- face credible Tea Party primary opposition. If any of them are upset, the party will be split and the Tea Party candidate will face a brutal, well funded Democratic assault.

“I won’t make a prediction,” Brown said, but he hinted that the Republican House contingent in 2015 will be closer to 40 than to 50. Like maybe 75-43?

The Republicans’ enduring frustration is that “changing demographics” works in only one direction. More and more of the House’s 118 districts are becoming more Democratic, meaning that the black, Hispanic or socially liberal white population is growing and the white, conservative, pro-gun rights, anti-abortion population is dwindling, dying, retiring or moving to the Sun Belt.

For a while, the Republicans were on a roll south of Interstate 80, ousting one or two Democrats from Downstate seats every election, but the 2012 election, in conjunction with Madigan’s remap, reversed that trend. And, in the Cook County suburbs, and in Lake, DuPage and Will counties, Democrats are snatching a couple of Republican seats every cycle.

In 1994, in the anti-Clinton sweep, the Republicans won a 65-53 majority, ousting Madigan as speaker. In 1996 they lost seven seats, primarily in the south suburbs, returning Madigan to power with a 60-58 majority. By 2002, with another Madigan remap, the Democrats were up to a 66-52 majority. In 2010, a Republican year, the Republicans moved up to 64-54, but the 2012 remap put them down again. The Republicans lost a net of 18 seats from 1996 to 2012.

The Democrats hold all but one of the 30 seats in Chicago or Chicago-dominated city-suburban districts, 17 of the 20 seats in the Cook County suburbs or Collar County overlaps, and 13 of the 28 seats in the Collar Counties. Of 16 flips in the past 18 years, only one has flipped back to Republican.

Downstate affords Republicans a 28-12 majority. The Republicans’ only hope of a comeback is to amass a 38-2 Downstate majority, which is impossible, even if Obama-like Democrats occupy positions of power.

Here’s another multiple-choice question. Madigan will cease his 30-year reign as speaker when:

Term limits are enacted by the legislature? His daughter Lisa Madigan is elected governor in 2018 or 2022? Madigan turns age 80 in 2022? The Democrats lose 11 House seats? The Illinois Constitution is amended by voter referendum to mandate legislative term limits?

Answer: It’s a no-brainer. The first and fourth things will never happen. The speaker’s ascetic lifestyle, which includes a daily apple for lunch, keeps him in splendid health. In fact, he could still be speaker after Lisa Madigan finishes two terms. Even if term limits for legislators or leaders were constitutionally required, it wouldn’t be retroactively applied, so Madigan, who was first elected in 1970 and who has been the speaker for 30 of the past 32 years, could legally serve for another 6 to 8 years.

There also is the matter of money. Special interests donate to those who can serve them best. Madigan, who also is the state Democratic Party chairman, had $5.3 million in his various accounts as of Dec. 31; the Republicans had just under $1 million. With 10 to 15 seats in play in 2014, the Democrats can allocate $300,000 to $500,000 per seat, while the Republicans can allocate barely $100,000. The Republicans are on defense in a year they should be on offense.
Here’s a look at Republican takeaways:

55th District: This Park Ridge-Des Plaines district has been Republican since the 1870s, and a Republican woman held the seat for 36 years, from 1976 to 2012. Republican bickering over abortion split the party, and ineptitude by incumbent Rosemary Mulligan’s, who served from 1992 to 2012, got her knocked from the ballot in 2012. Moyland, Des Plaines’ mayor, ran as a pro-choice, pro-gun control Democrat, Madigan dumped almost $1 million into the race, and he beat conservative Susan Sweeney 21,231-18,711. This year he faces Mel Thillens. Moylan is favored.

79th District: This Kankakee seat should be solidly Republican, but Glenn Nixon, a deputy police chief, was swamped in the 2012 Obama tide, losing to Cloonen 21,287-21,196. Nixon is back for a rematch. Madigan will spend $1 million to save Cloonen. Toss-up.

71st District: Republicans spent more than $500,000 to elect Rich Mourthlin in 2010, but he was blindsided by Democrat Mike Smiddy in 2012. Smiddy is relatively conservative, and he will be hard to oust. The Republicans have a primary between Jim Wozniak and Jeff McKinley. Toss-up.

62nd District: Sandy Cole, then a county commissioner, won the seat in 2010, but she blew it to Yingling, even though this west Lake County area barely went for Obama. Republican Rob Drobinski, an assistant state’s attorney, is running. Toss-up.

According to Brown, demographic change coupled with retirements gives Democrats a chance to win the seats of Tom Cross (Oswego-Plainfield), Darlene Senger (Naperville), JoAnne Osmond (Antioch), Kay Hatcher (Yorkville), Renee Kosel (Mokena), Dennis Reboletti (Addison) and Mike Bost (Carbondale). When these types of exurban seats come into play, the Republicans may as well pack it in. Republicans have blown seats in Schaumburg, Hoffman Estates, McHenry, Glenview, Elmwood Park and Park Ridge, but Antioch and Yorkville?

Adjoining this article is a vote chart of area state representatives, of whom two – Republican David Harris of Arlington Heights and Democrat Kathleen Willis of Elmwood Park-Addison -- are unopposed. Madigan spent $800,000, and Willis beat Skip Saviano by 1,451 votes in 2012; no Republican candidate filed for this election. Hispanic Chicago Democrats Jaime Andrade (D-40), Toni Berrios (D-39) and Luis Arroyo (D-3) face rugged March 18 primary fights. Berrios, the daughter of the Democratic county chairman, oddly voted for concealed carry but then against overriding the governor’s veto. Andrade was appointed in August, and he has yet to entrench himself. Berrios won her 2012 primary by 125 votes.

Moylan was true to his gun-control pledge, and he voted for gay marriage and pension reform and against medical marijuana and Medicaid expansion. Mike McAuliffe (R-20), the only Chicago Republican in the House, opposed gay marriage and the $55 billion budget but backed pension reform and concealed carry. Lou Lang (D-16) of Skokie, Laura Fine (D-17) of Glenview and Elaine Nekritz (D-57) of Northfield voted predictably liberal, as did freshman Rob Martwick (D-19) of Norridge, except on the pension bill. John D’Amico (D-15) of Chicago was under huge pressure to back gay marriage and did, but he also backed concealed carry and fracking.

None of the 12 reps in the chart none will lose the fall election, but two may not survive the primary.

Send e-mail to russ@russstewart. com or visit his Web site at www. russstewart.com.

Selected 2013 Illinois Senate Votes:

JA

LA

TB

JD

LL

RM

MMO

KW

MMC

EN

DH

LF

Legalize gay marriage

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Cut pension benefits by $1 billion

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Allow concealed carr” of firearms

*

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

N

Override veto of concealed carry

*

A

N

Y

N

Y

N

N

Y

N

Y

A

Pass $55 billion 2014 budget

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Issue driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

*

*

*

Y

Y

N

Y

Expand Medicaid coverage to higher income people

*

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Allow prescription sale of marijuana

*

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

N

Y

Y

Y

“Homeless Bill of Rights”

*

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

A

Y

Y

Internet posting of tollway deadbeats

*

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

Reduce compulsory education to age 6

*

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Y

N

Y

Allow fracking for natural gas

*

Y

N

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

Fund  Peotone airport land and DePaul stadium

*

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

Y

N

N

Y

KEY: Y: Yes N: No A: Absent *: Not sworn in
JA: Jaime Andrade (D-40) LA: Luis Arroyo (D-3) TB: Toni Berrios (D-39) JD: John D’Amico (D-15) LL: Lou Lang (D-16) RM: Rob Martwick (D-19)MMo: Marty Moylan (D-55) KW: Kathleen Willis (D-77) MMc: Mike McAuliffe (R-20) EN: Elaine Nekritz (D-57) DH: David Harris (R-53) LF: Laura Fine (D-17)